Trend Reversal Prediction

[jackass]

Originally Posted by FXHolic

Hello,

US Dollar weakness seems to be over by Friday on Non-farm payrolls. I expect the market to have its last blow on the announcement of the news, which I expect to be the last high on EURUSD, GBPUSD and other USD pairs, at least for mid-term.

I therefore, think that it would be the best time to buy USD on mid term basis.

I've been waiting for the turning point on EUR/USD forever. And instead I just keep taking it in the ass...

[vsampier]

"Time For A Change"

The July 13-18 Exchange Point period is fast approaching, and if I have calculated the Market Time Sequence for EUR/USD correctly, we should
be seeing a new High and Peak sometime during this period, to be followed
by a trend reversal to the downside. That downtrend should continue for at least 2 Epochs (at least through the Sept. 3 - 5 Exchange Point - but this downtrend may entend for up to 5 Epochs - Nov. 1 - 3 Exchange Point).

Let's also see if the Price projection that I posted (somewhere in the 1.3753 - 1.3782) comes to pass, although I feel far less confident with Price projections since this technique and Exotorus charts deal with Time and Market Time only - not Price. I actually came up with this Price projection range by expanding some related research on another of Mr. Gann's less-known techniques. In fact everything that I have described in these posts is based upon Mr. Gann's less-known, yet much more valuable concepts. You will note I have not spoken about any of the usual, run-of-the-mill Gann techniques such as Gann Angles, Gann Fans, Square of 9, etc. in this discussion.

Clearly today, the EUR/USD has started its climb towards that projected Reversal and Price Range.

Let's see what happens.

[vsampier]

'Score Card Time'

Lets take a look back and see how the EUR/USD has progressed, comparing against my earlier projections:

I had projected that the upswing trend that was in effect since June 13 should have peaked, and reversed sometime during the July 13-18 Exchange Point Period - In reality that peak and reversal did happen just beyond that July 13-18 exchange Point Period, on July 24.

So my projection, or my calculation of the July 13-18 Exchange Point period in the Exotorus chart, was slightly off by a few days. As I've said earlier, I remain humble, and I am still trying to refine my research and timing.

Bottom Line: My Score: Close but No Cigar - Practice Makes Perfect!

Currently the EUR/USD is still in that downtrend reversal. We are approaching the end of that 2 Epoch period for this down swing, which occurs during the Sept. 3-5 period.

As I stated in my earlier projection, the EUR/USD should either start a new uptrend during this Sept. 3-5 Exchange Point period, or thie current downtrend may last for up to 5 Epochs, which would take us to the Nov. 1-3 Exchange Point Period.

Finally addressing my previous Price projection, that projection turned out to be fairly close for the price area on July 13, which I had said was probably the most likely Reversal Date during the July 13-18 Exchange Point Period. Earlier I had said that my confidence in Price projections was far lower than it was for my Time projections, due to the fact that the Price projection came from some new research I have been conducting. So I am somewhat pleased that the Price projection was fairly close for July 13, however the true Trend Reversal occurred on July 24.

'Time is most Important'

Let's circle back in a bit, and see how the EUR/USD and Market Time progress.

'Time to join Mr. Gann, Mr. Elliott, and Mr. Bond for one of those Stirred Martinis'