USD bears 2

[novice]

AUD/USD

Same signals as the EUR/USD.

But a better trade for me because of risk management (e.g. 100,000 AUD/USD is a lot smaller than 100,000 EUR/USD in relative terms).

Bullish divergence between price and MACD-H (bottom blue line)

Relative high at 0.7819

Place a buy stop 1 tick above at 0.7820 (top blue line)

If AUD/USD downtrand reverses stopped in, if not you lose nothing.

[novice]

I would have liked to have bought at about 0.7750 AUD/USD.

[novice]

But Alan Greenspan just talks too much IMHO.

Now I am looking to buy at 0.7800+

His Freddy Mac and Fannie May speech did all the damage to my planned entry price.

Oh well

[novice]

Looks like there is a support at about 1.2450 EUR/USD.

Also looks like the EUR/USD has put in a double bottom at about these levels.

Also there is bullish divergence between price and MACD-H.

I assume that the EUR/USD is the main driver for most USD pairs (e.g. GBP/USD, AUD/USD).

[novice]

No entry stops triggered yet.

Maybe one more push lower early next week and then a reversal. Support at about 1.2350 should hold. The USD rally is losing speed. Witness the bullish divergences.

Use a breakout above the relative highs of EUR/USD as an entry signal.

[novice]

Being Friday there should be some unwinding of short EUR/USD position because of profit taking of shorts during the week and the geo-political risk of holding the USD over the weekend.

The relative high at 1.2716 should not be touched.

Early next week there may be one more USD rally pushing the EUR/USD to support at about 1.2350.

If support holds. The EUR/USD downtrend is likely to reverse. At 1.2350 there is a triple bottom formation. As well as multiple bullish divergences.

If the EUR/USD fall below support at about 1.2350 then it might fall a significant amount more.

Still think the best entry method is a buy stop above the relative high. That way if the USD continues or accelerates the stop is not touched and you don't lose money.

Red line possible price action

Blue line relative high entry point

Pink line possible MACD-H action

Yellow line bullish divergence between medium term declines

Light blue line bullish divergence between short term declines

Green line support at 1.2350

[novice]

USD shorts unwound as expected.

Maybe one more USD rally early next week and then reversal.

IMHO still best to enter on a break above the relative high. Profits may not be as great but if you are wrong their will be no loses.

[novice]

ECB meeting will likely be of most importance.

The EUR/USD may fall slightly ahead of the meeting on the fear of a interest rate cut.

If there is no cut the EUR/USD may start to rally. Other USD pairs will likely follow the EUR/USD up.

The ECB will most likely do nothing at this meeting. Any interest rate cut will likely only come when the EUR/USD is above the pain threshold (sighted at about 1.30+).