USD bears 2

[Livermore]

I know ECB. There will be NO rate cut. Sorry.

[novice]

Hmmm that is what I thought I said.

Even if there is no rate cut there is still the fear in people's minds of a possible (if unlikely) rate cut. This may cause a slight decline in EUR/USD.

[novice]

The EUR/USD sold off slighty ahead of the ECB interest rate decision.

If interests rate stay at 2% a good probability that the EUR/USD downtrend may reverese and the EUR/USD may rally strongly. Now a double bullish divergence between price and 1-hour MACD-H.

Still a small chance that the ECB may cut rates. May cause the EUR/USD to go below support at about 1.2350.

So IMHO the best trade is to place a buy stop above the relative high. If the EUR/USD rallies you will be stopped in long. If the EUR/USD continues to fall you will not be stopped in.

Other USD pairs (e.g. AUD/USD or GBP/USD should be much the same).

[novice]

I was dead wrong. I thought that support at about 1.2350 EUR/USD would hold and the EUR/USD would rally from there.

But the EUR/USD broke below support.

My entry plan was to place a buy stop above the relative high. The relative high was not touched in either the EUR/USD or the AUD/USD. So even though I was dead wrong about market direction I did not lose any money.

[novice]

Still don't think much has changed.

Keep lowing a buy stop order just above the relative high.

Current entry point (i.e. lowest blue line) 1.2545

Possiable future entry point (i.e. red line) 1.2416

[novice]

USD looks weak, the payroll numbers have reall shaken the confidence out of USD bulls. EUR/USD ready to reverse?

[novice]

I would prefere to trade AUD/USD using much the same signals from EUR/USD. Much less risk trading 100,000 AUD/USD than trading 100,000 EUR/USD.

[psperos]

we got trade data tomorrow am. Im with you on a USD drop soon.

I think the sell off today might end up looking like a buying oppertunity in a couple of days. First things first is how the market will react to the trade data tomorrw. Span is talking tomorrow as well.

We got some numbers this friday that are coming out too.

Lets look at the reason for why we are even at these levels....

1. we made new highs
2. dollar rallied on fear of intervention etc...
3 dollar rallied HUGE on expectations that us jobs report would be good, and ECB would lower rates.
4. dollar rallied becuse of BOJ intervention and technical break( today )

that only leaves one thing... the true facts will have to unfold and take the USD down. All these things are just delays.

the recent drop today is moot. Triggerd by BOJ intervention which took out sell orders all over. I have gaps on all my charts for the GBP and EUR at 13:00. Japan is trying really hard to keep that usd/jpy rally going.

Lets see what the current events will bring us for the rest of the week.

As of now, even with some technical supports broken because of that whole game this afternoon... the USD has nothing going for it. That jobs report last week was horrible. US will NOT raise rates for a while.

If it were not for the games japan has been playing since the jobs report was released, we would be close to the highs now.

for no my bias is DOWN for the USD unless factual news triggers a rally in the US dollar that is Just. So time will tell in the next few days.,

10/03/2004 13:30 US January Trade Balance $42.05B -$42.5B
10/03/2004 15:00 US January Wholesale Inventories N/A 0.6
_____________________________________________
11/03/2004 13:30 US February Retail Sales 0.5% -0.3%
11/03/2004 13:30 US February Retail Sales Ex Auto +0.5% +0.9%
11/03/2004 13:30 US February Import Prices 0.4% +1.3%
11/03/2004 13:30 US February Import Prices ex-oil N/A 0.7%
11/03/2004 13:30 US February Export Prices ex-ag. N/A 0.6%
11/03/2004 13:30 US Weekly Jobless Claims 346K 345K