USD bears 2

[novice]

I made the mistake at first of paying too much attention to the short term (e.g. data releases, speeches, openings etc). But I still like to keep an eye on them.

IMHO the trade data seems to be the key piece of data this week.

http://www.moneytec.com/forums/_showthread/_s-/_threadid-7404

May cause either a break up or down. The UK trade balance caused a big drop in cable already this week. So maybe the market is paying attention to the trade balance and the current account balance at the moment?

I don't think there will be any news to change the fundamental position of the USD. But maybe enough to temporarily change the perception of the market, at least enough to hit my stop loss (all I really care about)!

About entry points:

As my previous posts show I have wanted to buy all the way down in the current EUR/USD, AUD/USD etc decline. If I had been buying on dips I would have been caught many times. For this reason I prefer to enter a position on a breakout. Even if I am wrong I don't lose as long as the stop is not triggered. The profits are lower but I feel this is balanced out by having fewer losses from trying to pick the bottom of the market. Still have the problem of being caught in a trading range.

[novice]

Well?

Prices did not breakout above the relative high in EUR/USD or AUD/USD, thus no entry was triggered.

Various people are starting to advocate a USD rally. In reference to contra opinion this might be a good sign that the USD may start to fall so. The time to sell USD will be when I change my tune and become a USD bull! LOL

The long-term fundamentals for the USD only get worse by the day. The trade deficit numbers (a record -43.1 billion for Jan) are very bearish to the USD long term. Even to Alan Greenspan who believes increased globalisation makes it easier to fund deficits must be worried. The composition of the deficit was very interesting. Oil and China accounted for most of the deficit. It would appear that these two components are just going to grow over time.

[psperos]

well, my conclusions after today is that technically, we are going lower... below 1.200.. as low as 1.150 but 1.1980 first. This was obvious yesterday as well, but i let my thinking of fundamentals overide that fact.

To justify a move much much lower , just think of how much the EUR and all others have risen against the dollar since the fall. That tells me that maybe a lot of bad fundamental facts have already been factored into the dollar, and its time for a technical bounce.

im not a long term type of trader, but in all my daytrades , im going to be focusing more on selling.

[svahid]

i believe that this market situation is only result of Bigs's game,
all of analysis is only playing with words,
one day they say fundemental moves market,another day they say TA moves market,but all of these are only for simple people.
we should be sharp and smart about their game,and cut piece of their big cake

[novice]

And how do you do that, without using either fundamental or technical analysis?

[svahid]

i prefer to trade on a limit range on non volatilety hours by pivots

[novice]

To blame the "big guys" is a cop-out. Whether you succeed or fail in trading it is down to you. Other people might make it easier or harder but ultimately you (the trader) are responsible.

It goes for life in general.

Complaining about the actions of others might be soothing but it achieves nothing.

[novice]

Still looking to sell the USD.

Enter EUR/USD on an upside breakout. If USD continues to rally nothing lost.

What happened after the Madrid outrage was very interesting. Even though the booming were in Europe there was a flight to quality to the Euro (as well as the Swiss Franc). Not a good sign for the USD long term as the prospects (sadly) are for a much more dangerous world.

Anyone else notice the triple bullish divergence?

In reference to contra opinion the talk of a USD rally is quite a good sign.