Friday model hours on EUR/USD

[Paul Koszarny]

For today the first model hour is

9:00 (to close at 9:59) it's a high so I am short for two reasons. One is the model hour the second is that daily indicators have turned bearish. I mean oscillator BWAO accelerator BWAC. In fact I can put a tight stop at 1.0280.

The next model hour is 16:00 (sup 1.0187 res 1.0255).

Yesterday's low was two hours after the model lower than 1.0231 indicated. However if not stopped 40 pips profit could have been booked.

[Paul Koszarny]

To TradeConsultant

FMA can fall short of expectations as any other idea of analysis trading. That we have learned far too many times on any market.

The main difficulty is when a very strong underlying trend compresses your reward/loss ratio. Especially when it concerns dailies. The second difficulty is when volatility surpasses model assumptions by far. The third difficulty it requires a lot of fuzzy logic. You don't measure cles in milimetres to tell yourself this is it that is that. It is always 'it looks like that it seems so'.
The fourth difficulty is a gross mistake of blending different approaches to your fuzzy logic. After all everyone of us has gone though tons of charts testing stard technical analysis. At least I have. time to time there is some nostalgy to return to 'good' old ideas telling yourself that that was sth on which you made good profit once or twice.

the point of view of consistency a primary feature of any modelling I have nothing to declare failing. On the one h I could be stopped on a FX position on the other h I would be profiting on stock futures using the same method. So I cannot complain much about it.

In literature you will find elaborations on the durability of the so-called inner memory of a market system. With conclusions that 4-5 years is what you can use. Later it vanishes.

This can't be true I challenge Peter's view very strongly. I made an analysis of copper which was based on the last 12 years the memory was still there clearly visible.

I have made a lot of false movements technically speaking getting overzealous overexcited etc. one primary sin was too many times I was leaving my positions unattended thinking the model would do the job for me. when you panic you can't think consistently with the model.

Yes I would like to hear your friend. Perhaps I could reassure him in his pursue.

[Paul Koszarny]

I hope you got used to use a trailing stop to prevent a loss that may happen if the market is moving against you. So I think some might have already been stopped. I am keeping my positions opened. I suppose next resistance level 1.0255 the model hour 16:00 will be crucial for the day. It's a very nervous market very thin indeed. At this point of the day I am not finding bullishness in the short reversal the low 1.0243. But I may be wrong.

[Paul Koszarny]

The market is swinging near 1.0255. Not much since 11:00. Gold is down 13 dollars its peak it could move the euro lower. Bollinger bs contracting suggest an imminent stronger movement. Probably after 16:00.