EUR/USD fractal outlook

[Paul Koszarny]

EUR/USD fractal outlook

EUR/USD moved from Tuesday low 1.1659 over 200 points until Friday with no signs of profit taking and the daily chart looks much more bullish with resistance line of a descending channel broken. Though I favoured the downside we didn’t have a close near 1.1600 support area and eventually Monday will begin in a new zone outside 1.1849. The recent gains may again attract more market participants to buy, especially those whose conviction was feeble. In terms of standard TA one should follow the direction of the break, perhaps with a little caution as we might see a minor pull back towards the broken line. If not, then both Monday and Tuesday will probably be higher from last week’s closes. The 1.1776 support zone is the first important level from downside, followed by 1.1754. EUR/USD eyes the target 1.2080, yet for new trades I would prefer to wait for the first model hours to come. Last week contrarian trades on the hours performed 125% better than a best single long position opened on Tuesday’s 1.1670. The only position stopped was actually the last sell at 1.1849 on late NY hours with –24pips. Like any model trader or analyst a strong trend is not something I especially adore. But I do like that sort of volatility we had last week. The nearest model hour is 6:00CET.

[Paul Koszarny]

The first model hour was 6:00CET, a minor low from where the market endeavoured a new high of the year but before that buyers were caught wrong footed as the market suddenly turned from its morning top. We were selling at 1.1916 to book profits at 1.1831. A new small long established from 1.1820, to double at big figure with a tight stop, target 1.1849. It's been 15 hours of slides.