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Old 13-05-2005, 02:00   #1
Habib
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Did Bush discover some magic wand

in his back yard, or may be, in Putin 's attic?
"abra cadabra, fee fo, don't stay lo, aaaaaah chhoooooooooooooooooo"
and voila this pig(USD) has started flying.
P.S. I love it though.
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Old 23-05-2005, 07:16   #2
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Re: Did Bush discover some magic wand

I was always told by better than me that it was interest rate hikes (fed bumps rates, dollar rallies) and high oil prices (screws up the Euro and Yen more than the dollar). But that must be too simplistic. I did read that Buffet lost 200 million shorting the dollar....
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Old 30-05-2005, 11:37   #3
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Re: Did Bush discover some magic wand

Good one! If history repeats itself and it usually does, all empires eventually fall. Consequently the U.S. empire(if you can call it that) will eventually end its reign. In one year or fifty years it will happen. My guess would be that China will be next in line, not to take the fall but to rise to empire status. Basenji
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Old 30-05-2005, 12:31   #4
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Re: Did Bush discover some magic wand

Get ready for a turnaround in the dollar starting this week. We're headed back down, Peeps. At least for a while.

SFX
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Old 30-05-2005, 14:04   #5
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Wink Re: Did Bush discover some magic wand

No quicker way to lose money than to lose one's perspective on the motivations of the parties involved.

An older gentleman I used to advise would regularly lose money in Fx because he would not disconnect his views on global issues from basic economics.

When I would tell him that Bush was letting the dollar fall and tried to explain the economics behind deflation, the affects of a deficit on the dollar, how this tied into interest rates, our exporters etc, he just refused to listen.

Anyway, he lost money. Wouldn't listen so he just got out altogether.

This is related to all those that believed the "non" was already factored in to the euro before Sunday. "The lady doth protest too much, methinks" is the appropriate quote here. "The non is factored in, the non is factored in."

The truth of the matter is that the general consensus of many people is that they want to see the euro do better and they've allowed this emotional response to interfere with their judgment.

Witness the current level, even on an American holiday, 2470 as I write. The profit taking hasn't even kicked in.
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Old 30-05-2005, 14:51   #6
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Re: Did Bush discover some magic wand

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray G
This is related to all those that believed the "non" was already factored in to the euro before Sunday. "The lady doth protest too much, methinks" is the appropriate quote here. "The non is factored in, the non is factored in."
I read that too and I was surprised by that statement. Who knows what's factored into the price or how important the "non" will prove to be. So much for the "rationality" of traders.
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Old 30-05-2005, 17:43   #7
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Re: Did Bush discover some magic wand

The rationality of traders is an oxymoron huh.

The market is efficient, just not as quickly as we would like sometimes.

I've always adopted the mentality that the fundamentals are for the actual commodity or thing being traded while the technicals are for the traders themselves.

Example; keeping up with the news as we all do of course, the sentiment for the euro to go up is exceedingly high. Couple that with the "non" story and it's not too hard to see that the "non" wasn't factored in.

Its most closely akin to people that become emotionally connected to a favorite stock.
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Old 30-05-2005, 22:22   #8
Habib
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Re: Did Bush discover some magic wand

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray G
The rationality of traders is an oxymoron huh.
Its most closely akin to people that become emotionally connected to a favorite stock.
Very true Ray G. A lot of folks got kinda married to Euro. They were so emotionally attached that they could not see the worsening EZ fundamentals and the amazing 5th ace up Greenspan's sleeve.

Last edited by Habib : 30-05-2005 at 22:29.
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