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[idejan]

Hi
I decided to start my own thread to keep others threads clean from to many different EW views.

I will not post recommendations or trading advices, just my view of the market - where it is and where I believe it is heading.

I try to follow Wave Principle rules and guidelines and I don't silmplify counts.

I follow simple routine analyzing larger time frame and then synchronizing internal structure on smaler time frames. Usually on Daily and 1H charts.

I'll start with my view on EURUSD.

To better understand whats happening now we must have a clear view on the big picture.
So based on the long term charts of EURUSD, I believe we are now in a III wave of a Grand Supercycle.
What we see on Chart 1 is acctualy (III)rd Supercycle wave of the biger IIIrd of the Grand Supercycle.
The main reson I decided for upward bias was the higher low from the mid 2001 (end of wave II on the chart EURUSD 1976-2005)
(addition)
* Since the EUR-o was introduced in '99 data before that should be adjusted from mainly German Mark. My previous chart was DEMUSD (inverted USDDEM data) from exchange server data which has exchange rates (not the actual trading data) back from '71. That was not adjusted and was slightly defferent from this chart. This chart is from IB and I beleive it has to be with ajusted data. Anyone with better data or explanation is welcome.

[idejan]

I was away today so I'm updating a bit later than I planed.
The count is devoloping as expected but we still need a firm break above 1.2250 to confirm this Impulsive wave UP.
If we dont see a firm break above that level soon we should then pay attention on the 1.1886 level (start of the impuls) as if it breaks down it invalidates this count and Chart 2a scenario is in play.

[idejan]

If this IM continue to develops as projected then my targets are:
1.234/239 for the 3rd;
1.2300/2186 for the 4th;
1.2450/2980 5th which will end the 1st wave UP
wave 2 down should not retrace more then 1.2150

However for now we should watch 1.2148 since if it breaks (more than 15%) then this scenario is seriously shaken and 1.225 since it is needed to confirm the count.

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

If this IM continue to develops as projected then my targets are:
1.234/239 for the 3rd;
1.2300/2186 for the 4th;
1.2450/2980 5th which will end the 1st wave UP
wave 2 down should not retrace more then 1.2150

However for now we should watch 1.2148 since if it breaks (more than 15%) then this scenario is seriously shaken and 1.225 since it is needed to confirm the count.

Well the market development made me reconsider some thoughts I have in mind so I'm posting an update of my previous chart but I'll post some other in a short while. Explain will follow with that charts.

ID

[xtsunami]

idejan,

Keep up the good work!

XT

[idejan]

Originally Posted by xtsunami

idejan,

Keep up the good work!

XT

Tnx XT
I appreciate your opinion very much. At the moment I'm reconsidering few different long term scenarios, since what I see on the chart is not what I would expect from the Impulsive wave UP. Your opinion on this is highly welcome.

[idejan]

Hi all
I must admit that I would have been much more satisfied if I'd seen a more impulsive move since 5th of july low @1.1862 since what I see on the charts even that complies with ew rules it more looks like a consolidation still.

On the charts I've changed my count because it becomes obvious that there are lot of USD long stops above 1.225 (1.2270/2300) that are for now well protected, but the third is usualy bigest and strongest and gets its strongest momentum because of the stops taken just above the high of the first wave.
It is so that the 3rd of the 3rd is the strongest move in the structure.
So if 1.2250 falls we should expect a strong relly up to 1.245 higher. (see prev. post&charts).

On the other hand untill 1.225 is taken up seriously we are still in the range of a possible 2nd of the Vth down or more probably in this scenario IV. (to confirm that, we need break below 1.1862) First level to break to put this view into consideration is 1.2148/1.2071)
On the downside the more significant level is 1.177 to confirm this is a USD bull trend and not a correction of the jul 2001 EUR UP trend.

But!!! What is most important is that either way (either we are in an Impuls wave up or IV of an IM move down (from jan 2005) the short time targets are same. Both the 3rd Minor of first wave of an Intermediate Impulsive wave up and Minor C wave of the Intermediate Flat wave IV (of the down trend) are arround 1.2450 (1.2450/1.2980 and 1.2270/1.2585).

Levels to watch (levels that should hold support):
1.2166 (wave 2 bottom)
1.2148 (wave (1) top)
1.2071 (wave (2) bottom)
if 1.2250 breaks then 1.2248 should hold etc.

Well we'll see.
ID

[idejan]

We did not see some impresive performance today.

I still hold my previous view.
Next update before NY sesion.
ID

[idejan]

just an update of the previous count.
ID
wave 4 targets:
1.2218 / 1.2152
in the next 5 to 14 h

[idejan]

Market moved as expected and we finaly seen decisive move up as stops were taken above 2250. Expect new buying arround 1.2285 to get us to 1.237/243/250.
Target zone for this (3) wave is(see chart 3 in post #1):
1.2495 / 1.2974 most -- probable time zone is 9 aug<>9 sept although it could end earlier.
I dont expect any suprise move down untill friday if any.
1.2254 should now hold support so any protective stops bellow this level (pref. below 1.218 - no pain no gain )

[idejan]

ISM Non-Mfg is @ 14:00 GMT and the consensus is 61.5 from 62.2 prev.
EIA Petroleum Status @ 14:30 GMT

[idejan]

Not much on the board before the reports. If any decline than expect to be a small one, to 1.227/5 before move North to at least 1.2403
But as I said in prev post I expect mor buying to emerge arround 1.2285
ID

[fxsurfer]

ok Dejan ... watching around 1.2285 may add some more at 1.2260
Good work !

[idejan]

Originally Posted by fxsurfer

ok Dejan ... watching around 1.2285 may add some more at 1.2260
Good work !

Tnx fxs

We could see some "fueling" with the following EIA report.

[idejan]

news came kind of balanced.
The ISM nonmanufacturing index slipped to 60.5% from 62.2% in June.

The drop was more than the expected of61.4%

However readings over 50% indicate expansion in the nonmanufacturing sectors

has been above 50% for 28 months.

In July, new orders rose to 61.9% from 59.5%.

The prices-paid index jumped to 70.3% from 59.8% highest since December mostly because of the higher oil prices.

Orders and inventories both increased in July, a positive for future production.

The employment index fell to 56.2% in July from 57.4% in the previous month.

U.S. CRUDE STKS UP 200,000 BRLS LAST WK
U.S. GASOLINE STKS DOWN 4 MLN BRLS
U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 1.5 MLN BRLS

I still hold my previous view that if any drop it will be contained at 1.2270/50 with new buying to push to 1.237/243/250
ID