My Elliott Wave Charts

**idejan** · August 3rd, 2005 11:50 AM

Concerning the fact that pair moved over 180 PIPs today some profit taking could emerge arround 1.2330/50.

**idejan** · August 3rd, 2005 01:49 PM

This consolidation should break up. I expect that will happen in the next 40 min.

**faure** · August 3rd, 2005 02:14 PM

i'm diggin' this thread - keep it going.

do you have a ew view on gbp?

**idejan** · August 3rd, 2005 02:31 PM

Tnx faure
At the moment I don't analyse other pairs since I'm doing some very serious maintenace on my computers. Soon I will post views on few pairs including GBP.
Since no profit taking occured I expect new longs to start building. It is however possible that we'll see that little decline to 1.2270/50
ID

**idejan** · August 4th, 2005 06:59 AM

Hi
Since there was not much action with the EURUSD yesterday, I took a look on GBPUSD.
At first glance on a weekly chart it looks very similar with EURUSD Chart (especially from 2004).
Target zone for the Supercycle wave (II) as difined by time and price:
1.8319-1.6266 / 21 jul 2005<>11 apr 2007
target zone for Cycle wave c 1.8557-1.7713 / 28 Mar 2005<> 6 May 2005
As you see the wave c has extended well beyond it's target price and time and now touches the border of the time zone. It could either end the wave (II) or it could end W first leg of the wave (II). If so, then the next leg X can be any corrective pattern and must retrace wave W at least 20% but should most probably retrace 38.2% of the wave W and not exceed 10 times of the time taken to finish wave W. To hold this view (upward bias), the 1.728 shoud hold in near term.
ID
Picture is downgraded below acceptable

but since is quite a long term chart I'll just point to what somehow does not appear on the chart at all (I did not kept the original sorry). And that's the "I" for the first wave just above the "5" and the "II" the first low after "I" and at the very top is "V and (I)".
Hopfully I'l develop a routine with publishing charts with best size to quality ratio.

**idejan** · August 4th, 2005 07:08 AM

On the other hand, if 1.728 breaks, then the wave from the begining of the '05 is an Impulsive move down and we are in a wave IV (ABC) of that wave.
The max price that should not be exceedet by wave C of thic IV wave correction is 1.8506

**idejan** · August 4th, 2005 07:24 AM

And now I'd like to make few things more clear for those new to EW.
The waves from the begining of the year look very much like an impuls so many of you are probably wondering why is than abc labeling. Well the ZZ (ZigZags) that are the most common corrective patterns have a similar structure as IM (impulses) and thats 5-3-5 (3 waves) vs 5-3-5-3-5 (5 waves). which means that wave a of the zz must be an IM or LD (leading Diagonal) wave b any corrective pattern and wave c must be an IM or ED (ending diagonal).
It is why you must always have a view on larger scale before you make a decision for your counts on smaler time scale. If they synchronize well then you have most probable scenario in play.
There are free resorces on the net so I think this is enough from me for now.
ID

**idejan** · August 4th, 2005 08:27 AM

Not much on the EUR during the night (i'm gmt+2)
I expect 1.2250 to hold, below that we can expect decline to 1.2146.
Targets for the waves on the chart:

Wave 2: 1.2312-1.2224 / today
Wave (3): 1.2437-1.2664 / 5-15 aug

other scenario

Wave (4): 1.334-1.2256 / 4-5 aug

Today we have Initial calins @ 12.30 GMT consensus 315K
ID

**idejan** · August 4th, 2005 11:51 AM

Originally Posted by idejan

Not much on the EUR during the night (i'm gmt+2)
I expect 1.2250 to hold, below that we can expect decline to 1.2146.
Targets for the waves on the chart:

Wave 2: 1.2312-1.2224 / today
Wave (3): 1.2437-1.2664 / 5-15 aug

other scenario

Wave (4): 1.334-1.2256 / 4-5 aug

Today we have Initial calins @ 12.30 GMT consensus 315K
ID

Wave 2 hit the target @ 1.2298
Target zone for wave 3: 1.2509-1.2712 / 5-8 aug
But see that this 3rd target zone enters deeply into the target of the wave (3) which part it is!? Well we see, since this are the most probable target zones and waves could go below or above this zones, but in most cases if the count is valid they will hit the target.

Wave 1 high should hold @ 1.2347 or this is still part of the ABC correction of wave 2 of one larger degree (next pic)
ID

**idejan** · August 4th, 2005 11:53 AM

I've posted this in one other thread before the brake above 1.2383
if 1.2347 break this could be in play
ID

**idejan** · August 4th, 2005 05:39 PM

Originally Posted by idejan

I've posted this in one other thread before the brake above 1.2383
if 1.2347 break this could be in play
ID

(I've wrote this message earlier today but had to leave and didn't finished it then so I'm posting it now since it has only educational purpose (improving my ew learning curve & hopefully help others too

). Besides there's not much to update on EUR right now. I'll update latter.
----
Well in a hurry to post before the market changes enough to make it an old news (it's always like that with small time frames

) I'd made a mistake in counting. I feel that I owe a correction update. It does not make any difference now except for it's learning purpose.
Of all corrective patterns only ZZ can start with the IM move and should end with one. It is why they could be misstaken for an IM reversal when infact a correction is in play. And if wave one is mostly mistaken as a correction, it's because of it's ZZ structure why the wave two is offten mistaken for a trend continuation (the reason why a lot of stops are just above the wave 1/begining of the wave two - which accelarates wave 3 when it breaks up...).
So on the chart above I made a mistake not taking this into account. If you follow the rule, right there on the chart (previous post chart and this one is corrected - note the difference) is the first wave a - an obvious IM so wave c (A) could not be a FL (flat) as I've charted, but instead must be either IM or ED (ending diagonal). Than it becomes obvious on the chart that wave c is an ED which then gives completly new outlook of the rest of the chart. Now we can see a clear IM.
It is why it's equaly important to always have a view on the biger time frame but also synchronize you count with internal structure of the waves on your prefered time frame (on that time frame and if needed checking internal structure on smaller scale).
Thats all for this update. Being disciplined and not impulsive is that obvious difference between the sucesful trader and a gambler

Best to all
ID
PS. I really expect your participation here with constructive criticism. It is why I posted here and not in the Trading recomendations. So criticism, comments and opinions are highly appreciated.

**idejan** · August 4th, 2005 08:02 PM

OK. Just before Asian trading begins with possibility of ending this Intermediate wave 3 UP, I wanted to once again make a point on what I posted on the GBP charts and previously consideret but missed on EUR charts. And that is: the low of 5th of Jul was not necessarily end of the correction wave II but could be it's first leg wave A. In such a case, we are now about the very end of the fist leg of a second wave B.
First sign of that will be the breaking of the 1.2255 level (which coincidently is the top of both wave (1) and Wave 1 of (3). Because of the reasons previously explained about ZZ in both counts - IM reversal first wave up and Continuation of correction, Targets for the (3) and for the C are almost the same with the difference that if IM we would not get below 1.2255 and we will have a continuation up in wave (5) and if C then we will see a break of mentioned level.
Since the general mode is that this is still the wave IV of the IM move down, expect a strong move downward if 1.2255 breaks.
I just wanted to bring this to your attention (and mine too) and as things develop I will reconsider this, since levels that are needed for certain confirmations are still far in price and time.
ID

**idejan** · August 4th, 2005 08:30 PM

Market seems to start to move up.
The targets for the wave (3) of the IM started on 5 jul are same as posted in previous posts.
Target zone for wave (3) to complete:
@ 1. 1.2495 - 1.2974 / 9 Aug <> 12 Sept
it could well be ajusted to
@ 1.2437 - 1.2664 / 5 <> 15 aug

ID

**idejan** · August 4th, 2005 09:45 PM

As I've posted in Iris thread it looks like the correction is finishing
Watch the levels on the chart.
This close detail views are good only for entry/exit signals and s/l.
ID

**idejan** · August 5th, 2005 07:43 AM

Originally Posted by idejan

Market seems to start to move up.
The targets for the wave (3) of the IM started on 5 jul are same as posted in previous posts.
Target zone for wave (3) to complete:
@ 1. 1.2495 - 1.2974 / 9 Aug <> 12 Sept
it could well be ajusted to
@ 1.2437 - 1.2664 / 5 <> 15 aug

ID

I believe we will see that end of wave (3) or C before the NFP @1.2470/90
We can expect wave (4) to retrace not more than 1.2255 on strong NFP. If bellow that level, then the retracement could go as far as 1.209/1.199 to retest 1.1867 and bellow. (I've explained the possible variations in previous posts)
ID

It is possible that market would not react dollar positive on not very strong or weak NFP (it is expected to be very strong) so we can see the (3) developing well beyond 1.25 level.