MoneyTec 2.0 - Online Forex Traders & Brokers Social Networking Community » Trading Talk » Technical Trading

[idejan]

Even with positive NFP dollar was not able to gain more than some 60-70 PIPs losing half of that gain latter. Not very impresive.
I'm preparing an update and much of it is finished but I'll publish it latter.
I will review again much of what I've published with new charts, most important levels and direction.
It's early morning here almost 6am and I'd better get some sleep
I'll see you letter then.
ID

[idejan]

Hello everyone,

It took me a while to prepare my market direction view but here it is. I decided to publish it in pdf because of it's size, so you can download it from here.

I realy expected criticism and sharing of knowledge and views, which would've eventually helped me improve my forcasts, and to be honest since there is no feedback from you I'm not sure if I should continue publishing.

It will be less time consuming just writing my journal and tracking my trades and views.

I'm aware that most of the people here are searching for good calls, because it's easier, esspecialy because it plays a trick with a feeling of release from the responsibility of making a wrong call.

But I find that exchanging experience and thoughts could greatly improve confidence in your calls. For me that’s the only way to trade.

Best Regards

ID

[idejan]

Hi

I'm performing some computer maintenance (what should've been small maintenance turned up to a general reinstalation and reconfiguration) so I was not able to post. I believe I will be able to update my data some time tomorrow and to do some anlysis. From what I see on the chart right now I could say that my view still holds.
There's no change to the previous levels (.pdf file above)
I would not expect any reversal before 1.2495 is touched.
Best
ID

[idejan]

Recently I've published a post desagreeing with Iris and what he said about the Fundamentals -

Originally Posted by Iris

"...expectations do not set Long Term Price levels...Fundamentals do..."

Since his thread is not a discussion one, I've decided not to answer to Noor there (although I was always very interested to find out how can somebody learn just following signals and not knowing how they were produced).
But since it is an interesting subject (fudamentals) I've decided to paste my previous post from Iris's thread here, with a little follow up example.

Originally Posted by idejan

Hi Iris,
Although I admire your work very much, I could not agree on this with you.
Actually what you read (fundamentals) today, usualy is a report for a period of at least one month before. What happened that month is a consequence of something that occured 3-6 months before (if not more)...
Expectations (desires, hopes, dreams beliefs etc. - the social mood) produces behavior which produces results (measured with - fundamentals).
How can possibly someone explain why on stellar good reports dollar did not react (or did negatively) and opposite on that we've seen huge moves on weak and bad data? (and not only $US)
You've all probably heard before a one word explanation - HERD, CROWD. MASSES...
What I agree with you is that we are on a juncture (which I believe is to be a bit higher @ 1.2450/95) to go south to 1.2297/63 (my time projection was 5-9 but few days more would be acceptable for me) .
*(thanks to Iris I've started learning more about time)

Best to all and don't give any PIPs back,
ID

As I mentioned in the post I admire Iris work and his knowledge of market geometry. Although my analysis included time (using fibbonaci), it was reading his thread that got me interested in some other price/time research.
If however we were in a bar, and you'd ask me which one of the two girls sitting at the other side of the bar I'd prefer, the blond or the brunette, (I'd most probably said both, but) I'd said I prefer blond. On the other hand if I was to give you a rational answer, I'd probably said that I'd consider face, body, lenght of their legs... and other attributes (or, their "fundamentals"). However both you and me, we all know that it is the amount of beer we've drunk that's the most important. (or mood)

Ooops, I did not mentioned some fundamentals like intelligence... it's defenetely the beer.
ID
*but then again it's only me being impresed with social phenomenas...
and only if people were rational beings...
PS. I'm posting from the computer that is reserved for my trading platform and I hope that my other computers will be ready soon and I will be able to post some new update on my market direction view.

[idejan]

Hi everybody,

Inspired with the latest posts in one of my favorite threads, Trading Eur/Usd with uncle Elliot, I decided to post my opinion on something I've mentioned in my previous posts, and that's my opinion about trading Elliott Waves on different time frames.
Part of what I've posted in mentioned post was:

Originally Posted by idejan

The best advice I can give is that Elliott doesn't works that good on small time frames and for scalping. (it works but it requires a great great experience, and if you could do it people will probably call you NEO )

The Wave Principle is about the market behavior, or the tendencies and trends in the social behavior (psychology of the crowd).
If you are too close to, or in the crowd, you could not possibly see the crowd, how it behaves and which direction it goes. You will see those near you, their moves, emotions etc.
E.g. From the view point of an antelope there is no particular direction where it's heading when it starts running, since it follows the first next to it. It doesn't even knows why's doing that at the moment, or if it's a wise to do. But it is not realy important how wise it is, since their primal part of the brain sends an impuls which says "preserve". Preserve life. Their trail is zig zag and seem quite confused (doesn't those moves on a 1 min charts on important announcements seem similar?).
But if you pull out and lift your camera above the herd, you are starting to get some direction. And going even further above you don't see all those small zz all those antelopes in the herd are doing, but you'll see the HERD going in some pointed direction.
Traders primal instinct says preserve too. They need to preserve their money.

Isn't that an example. moments of inspiration
But in fact, it is a good example.
So, it is my humble opinion that EW works best on Daily charts, since it filters all those small moves, using Hourly for checking subwaves and determing the confirmation - invalidation levels (S/L below invalidation).
ID

[idejan]

As for the Market Direction, even that my computer on which I do my analysis is still not operating, I would just briefly say that the lowest price level I was ready to agree with this wave was 1.2437 (it touch 1.2425).
But, since it already met it's time/price objectives (lowest possible price was 1.2403) I would change my view to neutral to mildly bullish and would watch for a sudden move down to 1.2300/2297. Below 1.2255 will mean that this intermediate move up is finished and we either enter into consilidation or 5th wave down.
ID

[idejan]

We finaly have some clear movement.

Primary 3of5 target zone:
Price: 1.2495 - 1.2974
Time: 7-aug / 7-sep 2005

Watch levels 1.2332
after break above 1.2450 watch 1.2415/25

Note: If your charting allows scrolling to your right margin you can plot target zones so you will have a visual picture of where the market is and where it's (most probably) going.

ID

PS This levels are still not very significant, but should provide some supportshort term.
Previously mentioned zone from 1.2300/2255 should hold if we are to get to at least 1.27

[fxsurfer]

Hi Dejan,

Very good analysis ... well done buddy !!!

Hope you get your computer fixed soon so we can have more posts.

We need a close over 1.2440 on 1 hr chart to confirm sideways breakout !
Target 1.2465-90 then retrace for wave 4(minor) and final wave 5 up to pass 1.2500+

Cheers
Fxs

[fxsurfer]

Sorry one more note ...

The beauty is the time factor is working today .... we are in sub wave 2 (down from 1.2449 to 1.2428) and for wave 3 we need to take stops and get the momentum of these guys with us so a break of 1.2450 should do that with plenty of stops just above that to get the IM up! (that I learnt from you!)

[idejan]

Tnx buddy,

On 3 aug I've noticed a great setup on USDCAD and I prepared some charts at that time but due to problems with my computers I did not published.
I'm right now redoing the analysis for what I believe has a min of 500PIP potential.
Be back in a while.

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

Tnx buddy,

On 3 aug I've noticed a great setup on USDCAD and I prepared some charts at that time but due to problems with my computers I did not published.
I'm right now redoing the analysis for what I believe has a min of 500PIP potential.
Be back in a while.

A friend from Switzerland came to visit me so I was not able to prepare charts but never the less - this is my view on USDCAD:
USDCAD is in consolidation at this moment and should find resistance below 1.2065

I would sell USDCAD @ 1.2067/89 or below
stop loss just above the sell zone
(or if you prefer 1.2105/10 is invalidation level);
(on break below 1.2 I'll use last high for my stops / 15-25 pips above)
first target is @ 1.1898 to 1.1543
below 1.1710 I'm very extremely bullish on CAD.
My Long term view on this market is below 1.10 to .90 before July 2006.

ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

A friend from Switzerland came to visit me so I was not able to prepare charts but never the less - this is my view on USDCAD:
USDCAD is in consolidation at this moment and should find resistance below 1.2065

I would sell USDCAD @ 1.2067/89 or below
stop loss just above the sell zone
(or if you prefer 1.2105/10 is invalidation level);
(on break below 1.2 I'll use last high for my stops / 15-25 pips above)
first target is @ 1.1898 to 1.1543
below 1.1710 I'm very extremely bullish on CAD.
My Long term view on this market is below 1.10 to .90 before July 2006.

ID

Here is the Long Term Chart on USDCAD.
I didn't bother to label it since it has so clear count that it jumps out of the chart. Besides, I find it very annoying to work with mspaint. I'm working on getting all the programs I need back into my computers.
OK. Now look on your daily or weekly chart the move from 2002 to see what I'm talking about.
Great setup.
ID

[idejan]

Just as anticipated for now
Beatufull setup.
Targets as posted above.
ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

Just as anticipated for now
Beatufull setup.
Targets as posted above.
ID

USDCAD made aprox 80 PIPs and is now into consolidation to 1.2009/1.2018 to continue down to 1.18 and below.

Waiting for the US data now.
ID

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

USDCAD made aprox 80 PIPs and is now into consolidation to 1.2009/1.2018 to continue down to 1.18 and below.

Waiting for the US data now.
ID

Retraced to 1.2013 and moved to new low @ 1.1925.
I expect some support @ 1.1898/95 before correction to 1.1986 / 1.2025
It could well find support here @ 1.1925 to correct to mentioned levels.

I'll hold my position aiming @ 1.17
s/l still above the high before the begining of trade
(sell @ 1.2036) @ 1.2067

*the move from the begining was 1.2048-1.1925 (123pips) (position 110pips @ recent low)
ID