My Elliott Wave Charts

[idejan]

This is an example why you should not trade the end of waves.
This latest correction extended too long to accept it as a part of the lates move down.
Well I know (it has very high probability) that this wave is going to extend further to min 1.18 but most probably 1.175 and below.
But at the moment there is a very high possiblity that it will end or ended it's Intermediate move down and will start a correction that will go to 1.198/1.202 but should not go above 1.2065
So I'm waiting for a signal to close my position and I'm going to wait to re-enter short at above levels.
I risk not to see correction that will give me better positioning and I'll have to re-enter on break below recent low (lossing some pips).
I could also leave the position open since it is well protected and it has a great potential over risk, but I don't want to give back too much pips, and there is a chance that I will be able to position even better for the next move down.
However if I don't see a retrace I will enter market either on a good signal for a continuation or on break of the recent low.
This is a probability game
ID
I'm still holding at the moment

[idejan]

Correction did not gain any momentum. It finished 2 of 3 legs and shuld now finish the 3 leg up. It will either finish this correction which them means we should get a move below recent low @ 1.1925 or it will finish the first leg of a larger degree correction of the move from 9 august @ 1.2186 High.
Either way we should see a move down, preferably a break below. If not then I'd look for good signal too close.

ID

[idejan]

While waiting further development on USDCAD, just a short post for EURUSD.

Above 1.2378 and 1.2332 trend should resume to:
Price: 1.2578 / 1.2765
most probably by 15-16 aug
that would not end this primary move up.
Expect a strong resistance below 1.273. Also 200MA on daily chart is just below 1.27

Break below 1.2332 first, and then 1.2255 confirms end of this primary move up.
ID

[idejan]

Again something that I've posted at Iris's post and I'd like to comment more than it's possible or appropriate at his thread.
and here it is accompanied with the addition:

Originally Posted by Iris
Hello Noor and Everyone.......

... The Markets Price expectation will always revert back to the Fundamental of Time...today's a good example ...

__________
Yes I agree, it will eventualy.
But the thing is, that while forecasting markets gives a room and comfort of being wrong until it does (price reverts), trading markets doesn't. If ones stops are being hit every day for a time period of a day(s), week(s), month(s), chances of one being drawndown, grows with his/hers continuing "expectation" that the Price will at some point "revert back to the Fundamentals of Time".
So, it could always prove that ones anticipation should revert back to the Fundamentals of Time, rather than waiting the Price to do that. Especialy if Time and Price are corelated and in a some kind of an agreement

_______________
Originally Posted by Iris
Time has Curvo-Linear Wave properties...and they do repeat...Price is a mathmatical numeric that exists within and must conform to the structure of Time because they operate within the same constants and variables
_______________

than it could be that they never disagree (deverge), but it's our expectations about the Fundamentals, that are in a disagreement (both with time and price).
_______________
Originally Posted by Iris
... In regards to disparities between them or "Fog" the Markets Price expectation will always revert back to the Fundamentals of Time calculated thru the Technical of Price...for that is how a Trend continues or reverses course to its true value...
_______________
And to the point.
Markets Price expectation will never revert back to the Fundamentals of Time, since the PRICE is THE EXPECTATION(S). It is the Agregate Expectation and Agreement of the MASS (even those not trading, since their expectations influence Fundamentals etc.)

Market Price expectations, the PRICE, will never revert back to the "Fundamentals of Time", since it is ahead of them in time. Ultimately it is the Fundamentals that will at some point of time show up to reflect the results of the ACCUMULATED EXPECTATIONS or "Social Tendencies - Behevior".

As for the
______________
Originally Posted by Iris
...today's a good example ...
______________
The price before the announcement was trading in a range from 1.2449 to 1.2485 (36 pips) and just before the announcement was somewhere @ about 1.2465 HIGH. In the next 30 minutes, it fell down to 1.2381 LOW (84 pips) to get to 1.2445 (64 PIPs or 76% of previous move) in the next 5 and a half hours. Previous trading day low was around 1.2375 and high at 1.2475 (100 Pips) with a closing just a few pips below the previous high. The Average day move for EURUSD I believe is to be 110-120 PIPs.
Sorry, I could not give a significance to something that insignificant as friday's "Markets Price expectation reverting back to the Fundamental of Time".

I've started an explanation of the terms Fundamentals and Expectations here, since they are the key in this post (and many others), but decided to move it to my post, for one to keep this post simple (if that was possible at all ) and because of the possible discusion on the subject, since this thread is not a discussion one.
You can find it Charting & Technical Analyst under My Elliot Waves Charts

Best to all,
ID

Important NOTE:
I'm not following Iris calls and I don't imply this to his calls, even that it just seem to me he was wrong on EURUSD for same time. I don't have a record of that and it is not the point here to prove that he is wrong. This is just my humble opinion and a different view on some of the Market essentials.

Here is that part on The terms Fundamentals and Expectations:
I'm geting very anoyed with the implied meaning to the "Fundamentals" as being THE FUNDAMENTALS. Economic indicators are just a numeric representation (and not accurate but more of a trial representations) to RESULTS in the ECONOMY which it self is a one of the pilars of the society, since trough the "actions" of man in the "economy" he can fulfill one of it's FUNDAMENTAL NEEDS (the need for material necessities - food, cloths etc for himself and his family - or Economic security and safety). So the indicators are not FUNDAMENTALS.
As for the EXPECTATIONS, I've used them just because of the relation to the previous posts, and they are in fact (dreams, hopes, desires etc.)

One have NEEDS, then one Dreams, Hopes, Desire about fulfiling those NEEDS. These are the essence of the MOTIVATION. However the inate capacity to do or be (ABILITY) determines if the one will take some ACTION to fullfill his DREAMS, HOPES (explanation: while dreams are unlimited expectaions full of "what ifs", Hopes require a "desired expectation" or the expectation that something will happen if nothing goes wrong) and DESIRES (explanation: the awarenes that something better exists). It is the convergence/divergence of the DREAMS, HOPES, DESIRES vs ABILITY that creates HAPPINES or FRUSTRATIONS.
The simple fact is that all animals including humans, primal NEED is to SURVIVE, to continue to live. To do that they need to take actions. Trading Markets is one of the ACTIONS people trade to profit in money, to be able to fulfill their Dreams, Hopes, Desires - related to their NEEDS. It is how GREED could manifest it self in the trading. On the other side is the FEAR (of loss). It is a manifestation of the FEAR concerning ones Economic security and safety, connected with the PRIMAL INSTICT to SURVIVE (continue to live, preserve life) and it is why the FEAR is so sincere and strong emotion.

NOTE: I'm not a psychologist.

[idejan]

As I said I'll accept any invitation to exchange opinions in a discussion thread, and since daily recommendation threads are not a discussion I realy feel uncomfortable discussing there.
So here is post as a continuation of previous and as an answer to Noor, who showed very constructive approach and whith that I believe is a person who is willing to share his knowledge and experience.
(read his post @ Sell EUR/USD in Daily trade recommendation)
_______________

Hi Noor
My post is nothing more then a presentation of a different view on the forces behind the market, so I highly appreciate your constructive effort...

I'd like to add something to your explanation about divergence.

di•verge (also di-) -verged', -verg'ing, -vergence
- to go or move in different directions from a common point or from each other; branch off [paths
that diverge] (Webster)

But what's behind.
If you PUSH something it will always go in the direction opposite of the PUSH and as other forces
start to involve it will drift away of the path. The PUSH is divergent. On the other side, if you
PULL something (attach a string and pull) no matter how other forces influence the object in other
directions, it will always be going in your direction, more and more directly. So, PULL is
Convergent.
This are the two always co-existing fundamentals of the Universe (Push-Pull, Repulsion-Attraction).
The indicators that you've mentioned (for the simplicity, lets say) are trying to messure that.
(RSI and Stochastic (and Momentum) are Most known Oscillators and Moving Average Convergence
Divergence or MACD is a A trend-following momentum indicator and it could also be added to
oscillators group of indicators. This is a very simplified explanation and you should all find a
very good explanations on different market indicators at Investopedia).
As for the evidence on my view... But first congratulation to Iris on his work approaching 2000
posts. I was not aware that he has developed his own Price/Time theory. I admit I'm not very familiar with his work.
I've seen he is giving
signals in his thread and somehow asumed that that's it, that there is no explanation on how he
came up with those numbers. Never went through the posts from the begining.
I don't know if you've read the addition published in my thread, since I believe it provides some
explanation on my view, and I'm not sure what will be a good evidence, to prove that view.
Personaly I did not post anything here to prove something, but to present a different view. While
the concept of Driving a car is proven, different people will drive a car differently (producing
different results in a race for an example) and some will not even be able to drive. Even the
simpliest task given to different people will create different results. It's why Forecasting Market
and Trading that Forecasts is very different thing, and above all different traders will have
different results with following same forecasts.
I don't however believe that anyone on this planet, no matter how genious, could possibly
comprehend all those uncomprahendable number of inter-actions of continous pulls and discontous
pushes happening every single moment around the planet that influence every single aspect of our
life. It is why this is a game of Probabilities and not certainty.
All human have same fundamental NEEDS, but develop different Dreams, Hopes, Desires by the surge to
satisfy their NEEDS. Expectations are the MOTIVATION (the fuel) necessary for one to take ACTIONS,
and they all take different actions (since they all have different aproach, or if they share the
same aproach they all have different attitudes) to fulfill their Dreams, Hopes, Desires
(expectations).
It depends mostly on the fuel how far one will reach in fulfilling his expectations. ACTIONS then
produce RESULTS that are the reflection of those Expectations. It depends on the MOTIVATION and the
ABILITY how close to EXPECTATIONS are this reflections, or the RESULTS. It's something I always
argue with people, that it's not realy important what you think and what you feel (relative to
others), since what you do, your actions are the real reflection of what you are. You will very
often be fooling your self how much you want something, but you should very easyly measure "how
much" with looking at your actions, or what you do toward that wants.
It's now know that Activity and not Material particles are the basics of the Universe.

As for the view on the market and it's direction, I've covered that in detail in my posts so
there's no need to repeat my self here.
It is getting late, so hopefully we will be able to continue exchanging knowledge and experience in
our combined effort to take profit from the Market. I am very gratefull to your constructive
approach, since I believe that there is always something new to learn. Helping others to learn,
helps you to learn even more.
Best to all,
ID

[idejan]

Hello everyone,

In my previous posts I have started writing on something I believe to be essential, and even that at this point it may seem confusing how it relates to Trading Markets, I'll hopefully come to that at the end.

I have previously talked about Needs, Dreams-Hopes-Desires (I'll use the word Expectations for simplicity from now on), Abilities, Actions and Results. And it seem like a one way road.

And to the some point it is.

But first let me try to recap and then continue.

All human have same fundamental NEEDS, but develop different Dreams, Hopes, Desires (Expectations) by the surge to satisfy their NEEDS. To satisfy those Needs man should obviously do something, ie - take Action(s). Expectations are the MOTIVATION (the fuel) necessary for one to take ACTIONS.

Now, For the purpose of performing Actions, we would need to develop or adopt a certain method, or general set of tools and guidelines suitable for that Action(s). Our innate potentials, to accomplish either what is physical or mental, those row latent capacities or abilities, talent, physical abbility, intelectual and emotional aptitude, ie SKILLS, determine the APPROACH(es) we develop. On a higher level APPROACH determines if on is a BE-ER or a DO-ER or if his general approach to problem solving is to adopt him self to the situation or enviroment or to adopt the enviroment to himself.

And we now enter the real world and start to practice our Actions with our Ability using our Approach, driven by Expectations derived from our Needs.

So we act and interact with others (their actions) both mental and physical.

The cummulative effect of that action and interaction in observing and/or participating in mental and physical activities until they become familiar represents our EXPERIENCE. And that's how our Ability get's it's practical component. But just because those activites become a second nature, does not mean we are necessarily good at them. It is the innate Skills and the Experience together, that determine the our real ABILITIES. So every day aggregate activities (actions, interactions) are the building bricks of mens Experience determing that way his REAL ABILITIES.

So what that cummulative effect, ie Experience, realy does is making us constantly evaluate and redevelop or adopt our Approach. The side effect of that proces is that when ever we feel we are not able or feel being able for more, we also evaluate and redefine our Expectations. If we feel ABLE then our Expectations grow and opposite. If how ever our real Abilities luck of either Skills or Experience we could easily end frustrated, since our Ability could not fulfill our Expectations.

So driven by our expectations to satisfy our needs we develop Approach and start practicing our actions, by what we interact with other people (practicing their actions too), we build up an Experience, which then helped in determing our Real Abilities by adding a practical side to our innate Skills, and also made us constantly evaluate our Approach and Expectations.

To make it simple in a way if our Experience says we CAN and we than say GO, and if it says we can't we say STOP.

In that combined effort of our Skills and Experience in the persuit of our expectations, as I've said before, we are not necessarily good at what we do. So we experience both Pleasure of success and Disapointment of failure on our pursuit of Happines. It is how accumulated interactions, help developing ATTITUDE.

Attitude is the manner in which we procede with our Approach. We may be hard driven, cool, assertive, but in general we could have a positive or negative attitude.

And here we are to the point were we can say that:

It is the Cummulative mannor (Attitude) with which we all procede with our developed and adopted methodology of doing and being (Approach) in our Constant persuit of fulfilling our Expectations which derive from our Needs, that creates the Social Trends and Tendencies (General Sentiment).

That is the place where the Wave Principle comes in.

Since there are number of sources on the Wave Principle, I will not go into explaining what has already been explained by people with much more knowledge and understanding of the Wave Principle, but in some of my next posts, I will try to make some practical observation about trading it.
I've tried to give as possible simple explanation of very simple and intrinsic issues, but it seems that the most simple things take more time to explain, as for to me an unknown reason people do not accept simplicity. It seems to me that most probable reason for that however could prove to be the constant need of men to be Clever, and like simplicity insults cleverness. It is pobably there where our constant need to complicate an obviously simple things derives. At least it's how it appears to be.
ID

[idejan]

While waiting further development on USDCAD, just a short post for EURUSD.

Above 1.2378 and 1.2332 trend should resume to:
Price: 1.2578 / 1.2765
most probably by 15-16 aug
that would not end this primary move up.
Expect a strong resistance below 1.273. Also 200MA on daily chart is just below 1.27

Break below 1.2332 first, and then 1.2255 confirms end of this primary move up.
ID

I've mentioned much earlier my suspicion of possible continuation of the corective movement before a resumption of the EUR uptrend. (see my previous posts here and at Trading EURUSD with my Uncle Elliott).
So if the move up (from begining of july) is ABC correction first leg of wave b, then it is right in the target (both by price and time). Acctualy it is a bull's-eye (right in the center). In such a case move below 1.2255 is to be expected to extend to 1.21 to 1.20
Any continuation below this level will indicate posible much deeper move down, and confirmation of that would be break below 1.1864 but most definitely below 1.175.

On the upside, break above recent high will indicate move to 1.27 where I believe EUR will meet strong resistance.
A smaller correction which is in progress (4th of I) would most probably find support @ 1.2289/97 before we have a resumption which will
be wave 5 of I targeting min 1.27.

USDCAD
I will follow for a while this USDCAD just for example.
I've missed the opportunity to take profit @ 1.1930/25 when it was showing signals of finishing larger wave down, but I was "expecting" 30more pips.

So at this point I gave back more than 30 pips, but since I don't expect this correction to go above 1.198/1.2 I'll leave my position open targeteting 1.17 and below.
ID

[idejan]

...
USDCAD
I will follow for a while this USDCAD just for example.
I've missed the opportunity to take profit @ 1.1930/25 when it was showing signals of finishing larger wave down, but I was "expecting" 30more pips.

So at this point I gave back more than 30 pips, but since I don't expect this correction to go above 1.198/1.2 I'll leave my position open targeteting 1.17 and below.
ID

Well, obviously I've wasted a perfectly good trade of 100 PIPS "expecting" 30 more pips and then again expecting that corection will not go above 1.198
Guess there were much more "expectations" that it will.
And when this is a perfect example of a wasted trade, and acctualy a LOSS of 110 PIPS, it also shows that forecasting and playing forecasts is different game. While I was perfectly objective at determine levels and direction before I've entered the trade, I somehow was carried away as trade progressed.
But then again I like giving room to position to develop and progress. Which would have been OK if I entered the trade much earlier when I've first noticed the open door.
Here I'm am were I started and my bias is still down. However with such a deeper corection as this was, and the fact that the price just slightly break below .786 fibonacci @ 1.1932 (26 nov 04 low @ 1.1715 to 1.2734 High 16 may 05), I'll lower my stops just above the invalidation @ 1.2065 S/L @ 1.2075
Break above 1.2065 would mean we could see a consolidation from Dec 2004 to continue in the next 3 - 5 months.
But even with such a scenario, it is most probably to expect a break below 1.19 to 1.1850/1800, before any move North to 1.26/28/30.
Break below 1.1715 means a much deeper trend down.
ID

[idejan]

While waiting further development on USDCAD, just a short post for EURUSD.

Above 1.2378 and 1.2332 trend should resume to:
Price: 1.2578 / 1.2765
most probably by 15-16 aug
that would not end this primary move up.
Expect a strong resistance below 1.273. Also 200MA on daily chart is just below 1.27

Break below 1.2332 first, and then 1.2255 confirms end of this primary move up.
ID

I'm long EURUSD @ 1.2309. I hold my previous view. Stops just below 1.2297/89 @ 1.2278 (30+1 spread)

[idejan]

I'm long EURUSD @ 1.2309. I hold my previous view. Stops just below 1.2297/89 @ 1.2278 (30+1 spread)

First resistance is @ 1.2330/40 next arround 1.2370.

Above 1.2330/40 I'll move my stops to b.e
I believe that crude could give some sight to the next move. Crude is in consolidation arround $65 and is most probably set to continue up.
Will just see.
Above 1.2255 we can see some more consolidation (meaning this move up could still be part of a consolidation before a stronger move up), and we need a firm break above 1.2525 to see continuation of the uptrend.
On the downside, below 1.2255 we will see corection to deepen to 1.2150/2100
ID

[idejan]

First resistance is @ 1.2330/40 next arround 1.2370.

Above 1.2330/40 I'll move my stops to b.e
I believe that crude could give some sight to the next move. Crude is in consolidation arround $65 and is most probably set to continue up.
Will just see.
Above 1.2255 we can see some more consolidation (meaning this move up could still be part of a consolidation before a stronger move up), and we need a firm break above 1.2525 to see continuation of the uptrend.
On the downside, below 1.2255 we will see corection to deepen to 1.2150/2100
ID

Price reached first target @1.2344
Stop's now @ 1.2310
Should find support 1.2328/26
ID

[idejan]

It seems that all the eyes are on the crude
We'll follow closely too.
ID

[idejan]

Price reached first target @1.2344
Stop's now @ 1.2310
Should find support 1.2328/26
ID

Price break above first target zone, is in a corection (should be limited to 1.2332/28) to advance to next target @ 1.2370
S/L now @ 1.2319 (10 Pips)
ID

[idejan]

Price break above first target zone, is in a corection (should be limited to 1.2332/28) to advance to next target @ 1.2370
S/L (or protective stop) now @ 1.2319 (+10 Pips)
ID

It played well till now, S/L up to 1.2340 (+31pips). Looks well on 1H chart.
Today is my son 5th birthday. I've put my T/P @ 1.2382 (if hited +73 pips if not then s/l is +31) which will do for his birthday present.
This move up should find some resistance arround 1.2390/2400 but will most probably trade to 1.2430/2450 before a move down, which should be limited to 1.2380/2365/2350.
I'll check in a few hours.
Best to all,
ID

PS Crude made lower low first time today, could be showing some weakness... we'll see later

[idejan]

It played well till now, S/L up to 1.2340 (+31pips). Looks well on 1H chart.
Today is my son 5th birthday. I've put my T/P @ 1.2382 (if hited +73 pips if not then s/l is +31) which will do for his birthday present.
This move up should find some resistance arround 1.2390/2400 but will most probably trade to 1.2430/2450 before a move down, which should be limited to 1.2380/2365/2350.
I'll check in a few hours.
Best to all,
ID

PS Crude made lower low first time today, could be showing some weakness... we'll see later

First leg ended little below of what I was expecting (1.2375/85), so now my protective stop is very badly positioned exactly on .382 @ 1.2339 (s/l@1.2340) also exactly on the 200 MA.
EUR now broke out of channel, broke 55 MA on 5 min and trading last 60 min below 55 MA. It is now hughing 100 MA.
It looks quite promising on the Hourly chart.
However, in my view EUR is still in consolidation, and will most have another move down, especialy with most crude most probably breaking below todays low tomorow (which however would be limited and part of a correction before a continuation up). I expect EUR to meet sugested above targets before moving down in tomorrows trading.
I expect Asian sesion to see EURUSD at above targets and to start the next consolidation down.
Below 1.2255/45 we will see deeper correction.
Best to all,
ID
While writing this post EUR made a stronger move up to 1.2367 but it stoped there. Could be setting for a move up. I'm moving my T/P (take profit) to 1.2410 and I hope my protectiv stop would not be taken mean while.
Still looks very promising on a 1H
See you tomorrow.