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[idejan]

Hi all and good morning
Not that promising after all. Disapointing performance over night. S/L hit @ +31 pips. Concerning that this trade was something most would consider "trading against the trend" it's not that bad.
EUR is in a downtrend and possibility seeing 1.225 has grown with latest performance.
Developed a nice pattern. To ease the downward pressure, a move above 1.238 is required but I'd prefer over 1.24.
ID

[idejan]

Well instead taking those +111 pips, now my USDCAD turned up into a disastrous trade with stop taken @ 1.2057 for a loss of -20 pips.
That's trading.

Now about this thread,
I opened this thread for a single purpose of exchanging some thoughts and experience about Wave Principle. I've approached 60+ posts with arround 1700 views but just a very few comments. I guess I was not on track with this.
Thanks to all who shared few words and to all that were reading my posts. If it was of any help to anyone than it was worth doing it.
The point here was that Elliott wave works, but then again other things work too. It is all to traders preferences and style. It's not realy important if you play piano or guitar, as soon as your music is in tune.
I'll post just on more post I've writen few days ago as a continuation of my boring Forces behind the market and I'm out.
Best to all
Dejan

[idejan]

The reason People don't like Wave Principle is that it is not a mechanical trading system. The other reason is quite similar since it says that it is too subjective.
But then the majority of people who practicise Wave Principle are trying to use it mechanicaly.
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And now for what I think is important about implementing Wave Principle.
In previous posts I've tried to point the fact that it is the Actions that move the world, but that it's our attitude (positive or negative) that greatly influences that actions and with so the results of that Activities.
It is the General Social Mood that determines the performances of the Society and it's Economy as a part.

The Wave Principle is exactly about that. Social, or Crowd behavior moves up and down (from positive to negative) in recognizable patterns. It is from this discovery that the market analysis method was developed now know as Elliott Wave Principle.
How good will someone use it, depends on learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, he will be able to avoid becoming a part of it.

And while a carefull reader reads: learning THE PATTERNS OF CROWD BEHAVIOR, most of the traders read: LEARN TO RECOGNIZE and LABEL WAVE PATTERNS.
Although it seems that those two are the same thing, it isn't. The difference is not in the method.
While the first will try to reveal the NATURE of the waves, and with that, the real forces behind the scene, the other, will try to recognize the geometry of the forming patterns and label them, obeing the rules and guidelineses. That's a mechanical approach and has nothing to do with the Wave Principle.
It hasn't because of the simple fact that the human behavior, although moving in recognizable patterns which obey certain matematical relations, which are represented by the corelations of PRICE (the indicator of the behavior) and TIME, is not a pre determined neither by Time or Price.

IT DOES NOT REPEAT and could change. It is called evolution. We all change, and we influence others to change, same as they influence us. Our mental, emotional and physical "support and resistance" lines change every single day (every second). We are dynamic system and an organic one, not a mechanical.
The wave Principle can prove good in determing the Most probable market direction and is briliant since you could also determine the CHANGE in the Behavior. It gives you a direction. Not a trading signals. Changes in behavior take time. People don't lose faith and positive attitude suddenly as they do not recover from pesimism by night. That's why it is very important to know how to recognize the nature of the patterns on your chart. And it is a different psychology on a different time frame. It's like wondering arround the streets and looking from the top of the hill.
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What wave Principle uses is the PRICE, where the PRICE it self is an INDICATOR of the agregate Social Behavior and MOOD. SO PRICE it self IS A MEASURE of SOMETHING and NOT a subject of measurement it self. (it could be but it's irrelevant to this) Wave Principle is about knowing the true Nature of the Waves, or what's beneath. The price is a matterial reflection of the Social Behavior, so what the geometry of price/time tries to reveal is not PRICE in TIME, but where the Social Behavior is and Where it is heading.
Would I be able to assess my possible future earnings (Price) by simply looking at my previous historical earnings, or by looking in my readiness, my mental, emotional and physical fitness to cope with LIFE, recognizing my true "expectations", using my real abilities and finding the best possible way fullfiling them (my behavior) all at right time?

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Let's imagine that we are about to go on a holliday. We live in a city "A" and we are to go to Place "B" by car.
We get a road map and the first thing we do is try to find where we are on the map and then where the place B is, we draw a straight line connecting this two points. Now by just a simple look on the map we instantly have a clear picture of where we are and where we would get eventualy. By observing the map more carfuly (Analysing) we start drawing the path we will go trough. While we easily drown a straith line connecting those two points on the map (chart) now we recognize that we will have to travel somewhat different path which will include a lot of straight lines (trends) and quite a few turns (corrections). We will most certainly need to get out to other main roads that somehow are not going in our direction (larger corrections/reversals) just to get to the point where we will get to our road which will lead as to the place B.
Well what we have here is an expectation (to have a vacation), which induced an action (we started preparation and hopefully got there) for which we developed a plan (approach) an adopted already proven plans (car transportation, road map for directions etc). So eventualy we pack our bags and start the journey. We have anticipated the path, approximate time of arrival based on speed etc, and some other important elements of the journey with our analysis, we printed a perfect plan and we now only have to drive from point A to point B to get there.

Let us now assume that the plan is so perfect that it includes all the possible turns, pointed within milimeter with GPS, an includes all the ralationships of speed and distances.
Now could you drive your car to the destination by simply looking at the speedometer following speed (price) and distance (time) and following that perfect map (on GPS)? Not even if the roads where empty. The weather, people in the car- your company, the car you drive, the man at the gas station and milion other things you could've never possibly dream and yet to anticipate. And even you. Your abilities (physical, mental etc.) are not a matematical constant that can easily be predicted and calculated. Or are you?
So even with having a clear recognized pattern of behavior and a perfect plan (we recognized we are heading from point A to point B and recognized the pattern which we will travel developed a perfect radmap) and with so many people already driven the same path over and over again, you could not drive eyes shot. There's always something that could change your plan. Something always does. Just hopefully you would arrive at your destination with godspeed.

Thank you for bearing with me all this way, and I apologize being so boring.
But only if humans were a rational beings.
Best to all,
Dejan

[idejan]

I hate to see that someone would think I'm colsing this thread because of anything else but for the reason I've stated. I've expected sharing experience and thoughts here... (not recomendation, track record or anything similar)

I've disagreed and prove to be right in few ocassions with some people here and that could be seen. I've also made trading mistakes, and made them publicly and didn't try to hide them. I keep my mind open and I play probabilities not certainties.

This is how I've started my Market Direction update from 7 aug 05, published in pdf.

... With the latest Market development I’m more and more convinced that what I had in mind for some time (from mid of june actually) would definitely be in play. Because of that I decided to revise my charts from the beginning and to make clearer some things concerning the market direction...

and this is how I've finished it.

...My personal opinion is that in any scenario we will first see EUR above 1.24 to at least 1.2495 in Monday/Tuesday, before a corrective move to 1.2000 to 1.1998.

and it was Friday, ok I've admited several times I have to work more on TIME.
There is also a post at my Favourite thread "Trading EURUSD with my Uncle Elliott" (#162 27/7/05) where I've tried to draw attention on the fact that we will have a limited move up (... I'd only add one small a under your 5 C on the chart...)

Now the continuation of the UP trend is out of play for now, but, and this is writen in my Journal, I strongly believe, and this is my personal view, that this move down would be very limited. (to 1.2 and I'll be very surprised if it goes below 1.8).
It is my personal view that the Pressure up was eased not by the us good performances, but with the recent move down in prices of CRUDE OIL. At the moment it is very possible that we will see more south on crude before and if any move to above 75 as many project.
This will in short term give some ease to dollar, but eventualy focus will shift away from crude and be back to "fundamentals". I believe that in the months to come we are to see more and more bad US data and reports.
I expect exelent CAD, JPY and AUD performance. Stable with a tendencies toward improvement EU data should hold EUR above 1.18.
I will be posting my detailed Market Direction views in My private Journal here at MoneyTec and I'll participate at some other threads.
Best to all,
ID

[jezek5]

Idejan,thank you so much for showing me and i am sure many more how waves work,i thought that stuff was a bit hocas pocas till you came along,i for one will be looking for more posts from you,thank you.

[idejan]

Originally Posted by jezek5

Idejan,thank you so much for showing me and i am sure many more how waves work,i thought that stuff was a bit hocas pocas till you came along,i for one will be looking for more posts from you,thank you.

Thank you jezek,
I'm glad to hear that it was usefull to someone. Well with a quite a decent number of visits (more then 200 since last post, and arround 50-70 average) and just a few comments, I decided to close this thread since it did not served it's purpose.
Mean while I was posting in my Journal which was private but as o today is public, and as of today I'm starting a new thread, where I'll post my Market Direction view. But more on that @
Market Direction

Thanks once again to all for following my thoughts on the market direction and Wave principle and I must be honest I was kind of a disapointed that there was so much view but no comments, questions, criticism.

Best to all,
ID