Clear Recomendation For EUR/USD (Elliot Analysis)

[patricio_w]

Eventhough the`prior analysis is not already out, this scenario doesnt seam to be apropieated for a W3 yet. The 60 minute data do not show us much, even the 1.2048 is intact, the time and price for a W3 is faraway
Lets concentrate for now in the daily data.
Today is was a trend reversal on the oscilator on the over bought zone, the rally from 30dece to jan6, shows clearly a w1, and the correction of a w1:3 is a typical 0.500 to 0.618 of w1:3, it means then than w2:3 do not finish yet, and the idea of W2 looking for its target is a much clear scenario.
Then my analysis now is for the downside looking for a target between 1.1977 and 1.1933, before the W3:3 starts.
Watching the oscilator then, positions short with the cross over on the oversold zone
Then 1.2130 must be take out to start thinking thna W2:3 to be complete o near completition

Analisis en castellano en richdad.com.ar

[patricio_w]

Its not a recomendation or a chart, but something i want to share to you all, maybe you find it usefoul as i did, thanks

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[patricio_w]

On the 60m data i make another posible scenario to the downside.
This bearish look is on the idea than the W2 is not in place, lookin at the complex correction we are seeing actually. This complex corretion of and ABDCE after an ABC correction, it has its target between 1.1996 and 1.1930. The typical correction of a W2 in this case is between 0.500 and 0.618 of the W1, that is 1.1977 and 1.1930, also a WC typical target is the Alternate Price Pojection of the WA and the retracements of the WB, that is on the chart 1.1996 and 1.1947.
Lokking at the trend reversal yesterday on the oscilator the chances are in favor at first on the downside, lokking for the bottom of the W2
If th triangule drow on the chart is broke on the upside reaching the 1.2174 (WBhigh) or even reaching 1.2178 (W1high) that will signal than W2 should be complete or near completition, and this anylisis is out

Para este mismo analisis en español richdad.com.ar

[Cwave]

hello patricio_w

i am studying elliotwaves for last 3 months and found that 15tf creates sometimes good abc's pattern i have attached a chart for your review, the targets are going to be small since it's a short term pattern could you give some comments on this chart i have traded same pattern on gbp-usd last week it went good and now usd-chf is building a same pattern was a support at same area. Chart is attached for your review and would like to get another opinion.
if you notice on this chart the -c- wave is nice long wave sometimes -c- is going to be shorter but will go in same expected direction, any help will be appreciated.

[patricio_w]

Originally Posted by Cwave

hello patricio_w

i am studying elliotwaves for last 3 months and found that 15tf creates sometimes good abc's pattern i have attached a chart for your review, the targets are going to be small since it's a short term pattern could you give some comments on this chart i have traded same pattern on gbp-usd last week it went good and now usd-chf is building a same pattern was a support at same area. Chart is attached for your review and would like to get another opinion.
if you notice on this chart the -c- wave is nice long wave sometimes -c- is going to be shorter but will go in same expected direction, any help will be appreciated.

My Friend,
Difficult to say, since i think that study Elliot Wave analysis in chart of 15 minutes is a huge task. I use the 15m data only to enter into specifics trades, but never for a hole study.
What i can say is than ABC correction comes after a rally, for example W4 always should dived in ABC because it comes after a W3 that it should always be a rally, bullish or bearish, also W2 should dived in ABC becasue it comes after a W1 that should be always a rally, bullish or bearish. Also ABC corrections comes after a rallly of 1,2,3,4,5 Waves. The particulary of the ABC is than the WA should be divided into 1,2,3,4,5 waves, and what i can see is that i cant divided your Wave A into 5 waves, the WB it seams to be a WB, and the WC is clear a rally, it seams to be also a Wave C.
Also, to put the correct support you should be taking care than WC possible target is the Alternate Price Projection of WA taking the ratios 1.000, 1.618 and 2.618, typical ones, and also the retracements of the WB the ratios 1.000, 1.618 and 2.618, after draw all of them you have to take a look where they form groups, and that should be the typical targets

Daily Chart
I made for you the daily chart, just to telll you than i think you are trading into the correct trend with your 15 data. as you can see the USD/CHF pair works into the opposite direction of the EUR/USD.
If this is a ABC correction after the 1,2,3,4,5, the possible target is the first group in red, so the WC may be in place or near to be complete.
If this is a rally of 1,2,3,4,5 to the downside, the possibles target are the other to zones in red

1HChart
As the same think the Euro is doing, the CHF is moving into a range of a triangulle with a complex correction of a W2 complex of ABCDE correction.
The W2 is looking for its target and i think it will be between the 0.500 and 0.618 of the W1, once it breaks the triaungle it will look for this target. So once the W2 is in place or near completition we will see a rally to the downside od a W3 of 3

Also we see that the Oscilator is in the OS zone, saying than the W2 is near to be complete, if is not complete now

Hope you this analysis helps you

My kindest regards

[Cwave]

Originally Posted by patricio_w

My Friend,
Difficult to say, since i think that study Elliot Wave analysis in chart of 15 minutes is a huge task. I use the 15m data only to enter into specifics trades, but never for a hole study.
What i can say is than ABC correction comes after a rally, for example W4 always should dived in ABC because it comes after a W3 that it should always be a rally, bullish or bearish, also W2 should dived in ABC becasue it comes after a W1 that should be always a rally, bullish or bearish. Also ABC corrections comes after a rallly of 1,2,3,4,5 Waves. The particulary of the ABC is than the WA should be divided into 1,2,3,4,5 waves, and what i can see is that i cant divided your Wave A into 5 waves, the WB it seams to be a WB, and the WC is clear a rally, it seams to be also a Wave C.
Also, to put the correct support you should be taking care than WC possible target is the Alternate Price Projection of WA taking the ratios 1.000, 1.618 and 2.618, typical ones, and also the retracements of the WB the ratios 1.000, 1.618 and 2.618, after draw all of them you have to take a look where they form groups, and that should be the typical targets

Daily Chart
I made for you the daily chart, just to telll you than i think you are trading into the correct trend with your 15 data. as you can see the USD/CHF pair works into the opposite direction of the EUR/USD.
If this is a ABC correction after the 1,2,3,4,5, the possible target is the first group in red, so the WC may be in place or near to be complete.
If this is a rally of 1,2,3,4,5 to the downside, the possibles target are the other to zones in red

1HChart
As the same think the Euro is doing, the CHF is moving into a range of a triangulle with a complex correction of a W2 complex of ABCDE correction.
The W2 is looking for its target and i think it will be between the 0.500 and 0.618 of the W1, once it breaks the triaungle it will look for this target. So once the W2 is in place or near completition we will see a rally to the downside od a W3 of 3

Also we see that the Oscilator is in the OS zone, saying than the W2 is near to be complete, if is not complete now

Hope you this analysis helps you

My kindest regards

yes thank you it helped
kind regards

[Cwave]

Originally Posted by patricio_w

On the 60m data i make another posible scenario to the downside.
This bearish look is on the idea than the W2 is not in place, lookin at the complex correction we are seeing actually. This complex corretion of and ABDCE after an ABC correction, it has its target between 1.1996 and 1.1930. The typical correction of a W2 in this case is between 0.500 and 0.618 of the W1, that is 1.1977 and 1.1930, also a WC typical target is the Alternate Price Pojection of the WA and the retracements of the WB, that is on the chart 1.1996 and 1.1947.
Lokking at the trend reversal yesterday on the oscilator the chances are in favor at first on the downside, lokking for the bottom of the W2
If th triangule drow on the chart is broke on the upside reaching the 1.2174 (WBhigh) or even reaching 1.2178 (W1high) that will signal than W2 should be complete or near completition, and this anylisis is out

Para este mismo analisis en español richdad.com.ar

hello patricio_w
i hope you dont mind me attaching another chart of eurusd 15tf of a-b-c waves this is what i am getting prepared for monday going to watch how it develops

[patricio_w]

Originally Posted by patricio_w

Touching January 12 at 1.2163 confirms that W2 is finished
If this is a W3, the possible first target is marked on the picture.
Following the oscilator, the crosovers on the OverSold zone is and excelent oportunity for Long positions
1.2659 is the MAximun target for a w3of 3, (162% of the December 30th Alternate Price Projection
Para mismo analisis en español en richdad.com.ar

With the rally of Friday continuing today the W2 should be complete or near completition. Iam quoting the first chart of the first post to show where are the posiible target of this Wave 3:3.
Also iam attaching a Daily Chart showing where this corrective rally should be ending and when.
This should be a corrective rally of the 1,2,3,4,5 waves started on 30dic of 2004 ended 17 nov of 2005
It should be ending on 10/04/2006, in the last W5, the daily chart is very clear about my idea, tomorrow i will post a complete 1hour chart

Mismo analisis en castellano en richdad.com.ar