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[rufffen]

NEW LEVELS IN THE ATTACHED TABLE!

UPDATE 12/07/06 wed, US:

GBP/USD

Good idea is to add some to NET SHORT @ 1.8400-8430 SL 8480 TP 8240, or 100 pips away. Good confidence with this one trade.
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY

Look for yen to topout 115.90-116.20, after a clean reversal Id recommend to short EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, however make sure YEN reverses SOUTH first! If EUR/JPY trades above 147.40 or actually if it breaks 147.00 Id recommend to stay out of that trade.

Current EUR/JPY resistance is 146.88, 14727 14708 are overshoot levels, anything strong above that level, please stay out!

EUR/AUD:

This item looks like it's reversing, however I can't confirm that, since I got two conflicting setups right now. FLAT NOW.

Have two fractal for SOUTH/NORTH move, now the idea is to wait for confirmation and either SHORT TOP or BUY BOTTOM, once the fractal is confirmed.


UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, US:

Considering a new trade setup:

AUD/USD

If the SHORT trade gets stopped out consider a new setup

BUY AUD/USD 7550 SL 7460 TP1 7600 TP2 7660 TP3 7710.
Once the targets are hit consider SHORTING in the window 7720-7760

EUR/AUD:
Looking for a reversal signal NORTH at 6870-6910, if that
confirms, can go LONG for 1.7380 SL 1.6840.

UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, ASIAN:

Current SELL WINDOW EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY

EUR/JPY

1st 146.30
2d 146.10
3d 145.70

TP 100-200 pips
SL 147.60 move to break even once in profit

GBP/JPY

1st 211 15
2d 210 95
3d 210 60

TP 100-200 pips
SL 211.60 move stop to break even once in profit and trail

GBP/JPY countertrend trade, be careful!

1st BUY 209.65-209.80
2d BUY 210.00-210.20
TP 211.40 SL 209.40

This trade only good for the next 4 hours, once the pairs bottoms out.
Can BUY EUR/JPY same time for 60 pips.

EUR and CABLE levels coming up shortly, updating the scorecard now.

NEW TRADE SETUP

NZD/USD

LONG 1st 0.5990 2d 0.6040 TP 0.6380 0.6540 SL 0.5900
High probability trade

AUD/USD

SHORT ST 0.7510-0.7520 SL 7560 TP 7420 this one a 100 pips trade.

GBP/USD more risky trade

SHORT 8480-8520 area SL 8560 TP 70 pips.
would rather short from higher levels, or if you
have shorts since last week, advise to hold them now.

AUD/CAD setup

This item is shifting cycles as well, to a new uptrend, however right now
will likely retrace lower.

BUY WINDOW 0.8180-0.8230 SL 0.8100 TP 0.8560 going for 360 pips here.
Im also shorting at current levels (0.8390-0.8440) but can't recommend that to anyone.

So far:

EUR/JPY is +160
GBP/JPY +100
USD/CHF + 70
GBP/USD + 80
EUR/USD +60
GOLD + $9
EUR/CHF -40
USD/JPY - 90 - maybe close this trade and wait for a better setup.

PS:
1) I don't recommend closing EUR/CHF with a loss, since it will go up as soon at EUR drops.
2) USD/JPY - Do not recommend to close witha loss, since this pair will reach 110 in the nearest future - refer to the attached PDF file.
3) You could generally trade the pair in the direction of the trend, which is SOUTH for everything, aside from USD/CHF, which is going NORTH.
4) Name of the game trading strong trend on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is short on any retracement from the dips.
5) AUD/NZD is a little bit slow, so no analysis and setups for now.

THIS THREAD IS CLOSED! Please no posts here, thank you!

New trades posted with comments in attached PDF file. Thread closed till END of next trading week. Update Part2 coming after 14/07/06.

UPDATE on posted trades:

EUR SL hit - 70
GBP SL hit - 80
EUR/JPY +80 (I got in early +110) holding
GBP/JPY +60 holding
SPOT GOLD +4 holding
EUR/CHF holding SL moved to 1.5600 TP is 1.5770 -30 now

NEW Trade (not in PDF) SHORT AUD/NZD NOW OR (1.2320) SL is 1.2380 TP1 1.2240 TP2 1.2180 TP3 is 1.2080 TP4 is 1.1860. Last up to 3 months.

Previously posted trades:

SHORT EUR/JPY NOW SL 147.80 TP (revised target1) 136.00 Can take GBP/JPY SHORT too
SHORT EUR/USD NOW SL 1.2840 TP (target1) 1.2660 1.2540 1.2400
SHORT GBP/USD NOW SL 1.8480 TP 1.8200
LONG EUR/CHF NOW SL 1.5660 TP 1.5780
SHORT SPOT GOLD NOW SL 638 TP 530

Update SUNDAY.

Have a good weekend and a profitable trading week!

[rufffen]

GBP USD post-ECB/BOE update:

Recommended positions are SHORTS. SELL WINDOW 8900-8940 SL 8960 TP1 8600. High risk / High reward setup.

[rufffen]

TRADE SETUP TOTALS AUGUST WEEK 1:

So far thread resutls are as follows:

CHF JPY 1 trade +44
CHF JPY 2 trade +53

EUR JPY 1 trade +83
EUR JPY 2 trade +62

USD JPY + 115

USD CAD -24
USD CHF +81

EUR CAD +73

GBP USD -53

EUR USD - 42

TOTAL + 353 pips per one lot

Nothing much this week, primarily due to risk aversion on majors (EUR and USD)

[rufffen]

Oh forgot to say, you have to take yen crosses profits before NFP release

[rufffen]

Update PRE-NFP:

GBP USD SL 8940
EUR USD SL 2855

Possible new SETUP

SP500 BUY BUY WINDOW 1250-1265 SL 1248 TP 1305.
Could be a good chance to get in on SP500 tomorrow, before it rallies further NORTH.

[rufffen]

Reminder: Make sure you have a risk profile in your trading, and remember that at any rate risk aversion is better, than financial loss.

In fact most of my profits are not related to major and volatile news-events.

[rufffen]

NEW SETUP

USD CHF BUY BUY WINDOW 2340-2360 SL 2300 TP 2470 (high probability and good Risk/Reward)

NOTE:Only take this trade if prices stay within 2280-2340 prior to NFP release
NOTE2: SHORT SELL WINDOW BELOW 2250 (TA Blackhole). TP1 2150.
No SL on that one, once +80 trail with 40 pips stop. (low probability and good Risk/Reward)

Either one of the scenarios is possible, since EURO is picking direction now, and GBP can take a journey towards 9000 levels.

[rufffen]

NEW SETUP

EUR JPY SHORT SELL WINDOW 147.55-147.75 TP 146.60
SL 147.95 (current rate 147.43)

[rufffen]

GBP USD was triggered, SL moved to 8940, don't need more risk here.

[rufffen]

OK, I suggest to move stops to BE on EUR/JPY

Looks like EUR will push ahead to 2920.

[rufffen]

CHF stops to BE

[rufffen]

GBP USD was stopped out -38 pips.
Broke MAY 2006 HIGH, so staying out for now lets see the closing price today.

[rufffen]

EUR USD EW 15min/60min wave counts attached.

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USD CHF EW 15min/60min wave counts attached.

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OVERALL UPDATE; POSSIBLE DIRECTION FOR NEXT WEEK:

With currencies busting out of range, Id say GBP USD is close to resistance turning support and USD CHF vice versa, support turning resistance. If GBP closes above 9040 today it will try for QUARTERLY RESISTANCE AREA1, which is

1.9237

1.9460

However before that, there is MONTHLY RESISTANCE AREA2, which is:

1.8999

1.9190

Now my idea then would be to buy pullbacks based on daily support levels, and BUY WEAKNESS in price action.

Further on, my trend termination levels on GBP USD calculated 3 months ago are:

1.8702

1.8844

1.9020

1.9304

Now since three levels were taken out easy, 9300 looks as a strong reversal area and if you notice, it's also in Quarterly Resistance

[rufffen]

SP500 UPDATE: Also the rally is stalling now, updating #69 of 19th July, this setup so far is up 30 points, Id try for another 60 points, otherwise B/E. Id say topping action probable around 1310-1320 area, which is a good SELL window on SP500.

UPDATE TODAY This item stages another Rally and overall this trade up +50 points (which is like 500 pips on FX). Hold the item for 1310 and take profits then.

SP500 LONG setup is actually a good catalyst of FOREX markets, so before SP500 tops out (1310-1325) I EXPECT MAJORS TO RALLY NORTH!