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[rufffen]

NEW LEVELS IN THE ATTACHED TABLE!

UPDATE 12/07/06 wed, US:

GBP/USD

Good idea is to add some to NET SHORT @ 1.8400-8430 SL 8480 TP 8240, or 100 pips away. Good confidence with this one trade.
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY

Look for yen to topout 115.90-116.20, after a clean reversal Id recommend to short EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, however make sure YEN reverses SOUTH first! If EUR/JPY trades above 147.40 or actually if it breaks 147.00 Id recommend to stay out of that trade.

Current EUR/JPY resistance is 146.88, 14727 14708 are overshoot levels, anything strong above that level, please stay out!

EUR/AUD:

This item looks like it's reversing, however I can't confirm that, since I got two conflicting setups right now. FLAT NOW.

Have two fractal for SOUTH/NORTH move, now the idea is to wait for confirmation and either SHORT TOP or BUY BOTTOM, once the fractal is confirmed.


UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, US:

Considering a new trade setup:

AUD/USD

If the SHORT trade gets stopped out consider a new setup

BUY AUD/USD 7550 SL 7460 TP1 7600 TP2 7660 TP3 7710.
Once the targets are hit consider SHORTING in the window 7720-7760

EUR/AUD:
Looking for a reversal signal NORTH at 6870-6910, if that
confirms, can go LONG for 1.7380 SL 1.6840.

UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, ASIAN:

Current SELL WINDOW EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY

EUR/JPY

1st 146.30
2d 146.10
3d 145.70

TP 100-200 pips
SL 147.60 move to break even once in profit

GBP/JPY

1st 211 15
2d 210 95
3d 210 60

TP 100-200 pips
SL 211.60 move stop to break even once in profit and trail

GBP/JPY countertrend trade, be careful!

1st BUY 209.65-209.80
2d BUY 210.00-210.20
TP 211.40 SL 209.40

This trade only good for the next 4 hours, once the pairs bottoms out.
Can BUY EUR/JPY same time for 60 pips.

EUR and CABLE levels coming up shortly, updating the scorecard now.

NEW TRADE SETUP

NZD/USD

LONG 1st 0.5990 2d 0.6040 TP 0.6380 0.6540 SL 0.5900
High probability trade

AUD/USD

SHORT ST 0.7510-0.7520 SL 7560 TP 7420 this one a 100 pips trade.

GBP/USD more risky trade

SHORT 8480-8520 area SL 8560 TP 70 pips.
would rather short from higher levels, or if you
have shorts since last week, advise to hold them now.

AUD/CAD setup

This item is shifting cycles as well, to a new uptrend, however right now
will likely retrace lower.

BUY WINDOW 0.8180-0.8230 SL 0.8100 TP 0.8560 going for 360 pips here.
Im also shorting at current levels (0.8390-0.8440) but can't recommend that to anyone.

So far:

EUR/JPY is +160
GBP/JPY +100
USD/CHF + 70
GBP/USD + 80
EUR/USD +60
GOLD + $9
EUR/CHF -40
USD/JPY - 90 - maybe close this trade and wait for a better setup.

PS:
1) I don't recommend closing EUR/CHF with a loss, since it will go up as soon at EUR drops.
2) USD/JPY - Do not recommend to close witha loss, since this pair will reach 110 in the nearest future - refer to the attached PDF file.
3) You could generally trade the pair in the direction of the trend, which is SOUTH for everything, aside from USD/CHF, which is going NORTH.
4) Name of the game trading strong trend on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is short on any retracement from the dips.
5) AUD/NZD is a little bit slow, so no analysis and setups for now.

THIS THREAD IS CLOSED! Please no posts here, thank you!

New trades posted with comments in attached PDF file. Thread closed till END of next trading week. Update Part2 coming after 14/07/06.

UPDATE on posted trades:

EUR SL hit - 70
GBP SL hit - 80
EUR/JPY +80 (I got in early +110) holding
GBP/JPY +60 holding
SPOT GOLD +4 holding
EUR/CHF holding SL moved to 1.5600 TP is 1.5770 -30 now

NEW Trade (not in PDF) SHORT AUD/NZD NOW OR (1.2320) SL is 1.2380 TP1 1.2240 TP2 1.2180 TP3 is 1.2080 TP4 is 1.1860. Last up to 3 months.

Previously posted trades:

SHORT EUR/JPY NOW SL 147.80 TP (revised target1) 136.00 Can take GBP/JPY SHORT too
SHORT EUR/USD NOW SL 1.2840 TP (target1) 1.2660 1.2540 1.2400
SHORT GBP/USD NOW SL 1.8480 TP 1.8200
LONG EUR/CHF NOW SL 1.5660 TP 1.5780
SHORT SPOT GOLD NOW SL 638 TP 530

Update SUNDAY.

Have a good weekend and a profitable trading week!

[rufffen]

EUR JPY is +55 pips now, hold over weekend TP 146.60

[rufffen]

I can confirm following targets on
GBP

1.8702

1.8844

1.9020

1.9304

On EURO

1.2957

1.3075

1.3220

1.3455

SP500

1297.2984

1314.6149

1336.0000

1370.5969

I expect a reversal SOUTH on all items either 11-14 August or 18-21 August.

DON'T EVEN TRY TO GO SOUTH NOW. BULL RUN IS ON!
3100 looks as an option on EURO and 9300 on CABLE.

[rufffen]

What one can expect prior to FED RATES DECISION?

USD JPY drop 200-300 pips
GBP USD rise 300 pips
EUR USD rise 200 pips

I will post updated trades after US closing, since I need the closing prices.

[rufffen]

This has been an average week, total resuts per one lot on all currencies, including all the EUR and GBP losses (unfortunate):

+425 per one lot

Looking back this week, I had two gusstimates, one was bad ECB data (wrong) and one was bad NFP (right), so Ill keep posting future guesstimates to see if this can workout (don't ask me what I use, and no, it's not flipping coins).

A week ahead should be slightly better and the strategy will be to BUY DIPS on majors.

[rufffen]

Here's a brief plan for next week:

WEEK OPEN: SHORT MAJORS (EUR and GBP) and LONG (YEN and CHF) at market open price SL FRIDAY HIGH/LOW TP 60-100 pips, I will update all targets on Sunday.
MID-WEEK: LONG EUR and GBP and SHORT YEN and CHF. TP 80-150 pips SL low/high of the 01 August 2006. Update TP/SL as we go.

Will have some nice setups on YEN Crosses and EUR Crosses as well.

Have a good weekend guys!

[rufffen]

SP500 Chart attached.What one should note on this 1 hour chart, is the uptrend structurem which is zigzagging upwards, also the previous high was taken out, which indicates futher strenght and rally on cards.

Finally, how far can it go really? About 1310-1314 I expect the move to loose strenght and start to cool off, and then further reaction will send SP500 lower, lower yet, and yet again, losses will be equal or in excess of 100 points.

It might stage a rally beginning early next week, or post-FED decision, what one must realise is that SP500 is a barometer of the US Economy and will establish further direction of FX markets.

Looking at GBP USD USD losses likely to be capped with 9300 and EUR USD USD losses can extend towards 3020 and 3090 area.

Cautios selling recommended for a mild retrace early at market open, positioning for the FED announcement is NORTH on EUR USD, BUYING RECOMMENDED on any pullbacks.

POSITIONS SUMMARY UPDATE ON SUNDAY.

[rufffen]

MARKET ORDERS UPCOMING WEEK

WEEK OPEN GBP and EUR SETUPS:

SELL SELL at MARKET OPEN PRICE:

EUR USD TP1 2830 TP2 2812
GBP USD TP1 9010

SL on BOTH ITEMS 40 PIPS.
PRE-RATES TUESDAY BUY SETUPS:

EUR USD BUY BUY WINDOW 2780-2840 2770 should hold prior to data release SL 2740

GBP USD BUY WINDOW (this one is harder to calculate) 8880-8940 8870 should hold prior to data release SL here is 8840

[rufffen]

ON YEN CROSSES I SEE GREAT FURTHER DOWNSIDE.

GBP JPY at least 216 and EUR JPY 146.00, Ill post setups once I review the charts

[rufffen]

Here's a longer-term USDJPY scenario that's likely to be on the cards for the time to come. There will be some correction of the downtrend later towards this Friday - early week after the FED rates come out (possible on positive USD news, maybe temporary cease fire).

What one should be aware of is that GBP seems to be the locomotive of the uptrend, and since it established new highs this year, EURO will do the same, only a question of time now (2-3 weeks at the most).

[rufffen]

NEW TRADE SETUP / UPDATE ON EUR JPY

EUR JPY SELL SELL WINDOW 147.40-147.70 SL remains at 147.90 TP1 146.90

If you had it going previously hold it for the TP / move SL to B.E.

[rufffen]

NEW TRADE SETUP EUR CAD:

EUR CAD SELL SELL AT MARKET OPEN SUNDAY
SL 4542 TP 4440

EUR CAD BUY BUY WINDOW 4420-4440 SL 4400 TP 4660 PRE RATES RELEASE SETUP FOR TUESDAY MAKE SURE 4400 IS INTACT!

[rufffen]

UPDATE on USD CAD

If you still have LONG going from previous week, you will have a WINDOW to CLOSE with profit at 1285-1295, this time this is also a SELL WINDOW, SO:

USD CAD SETUP

SELL SELL WINDOW 1285-1295 SL previous high 1340 TP 1210 Id like to see 1340 hold prior to FED RATES ON TUESDAY.

[rufffen]

POSSIBLE NEW SETUP (ON STANDBY) EUR AUD

EUR AUD BUY BUY WINDOW 6770-6790 SL 6740 TP 6860.

Id like to see how it acts around 6770 area so keep yous updated on Monday, this trade is not approved yet.

[rufffen]

CHF JPY UPDATE:

Take your profits and get out if you still got an open possie going, this item is off my list because the pace is too slow for my liking.

[rufffen]

USD JPY NEW SETUP

USD JPY SELL SELL WINDOW 114.70-115.15 SL 115.60 TP1 112.40

115.50 SHOULD HOLD!