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[rufffen]

NEW LEVELS IN THE ATTACHED TABLE!

UPDATE 12/07/06 wed, US:

GBP/USD

Good idea is to add some to NET SHORT @ 1.8400-8430 SL 8480 TP 8240, or 100 pips away. Good confidence with this one trade.
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY

Look for yen to topout 115.90-116.20, after a clean reversal Id recommend to short EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, however make sure YEN reverses SOUTH first! If EUR/JPY trades above 147.40 or actually if it breaks 147.00 Id recommend to stay out of that trade.

Current EUR/JPY resistance is 146.88, 14727 14708 are overshoot levels, anything strong above that level, please stay out!

EUR/AUD:

This item looks like it's reversing, however I can't confirm that, since I got two conflicting setups right now. FLAT NOW.

Have two fractal for SOUTH/NORTH move, now the idea is to wait for confirmation and either SHORT TOP or BUY BOTTOM, once the fractal is confirmed.


UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, US:

Considering a new trade setup:

AUD/USD

If the SHORT trade gets stopped out consider a new setup

BUY AUD/USD 7550 SL 7460 TP1 7600 TP2 7660 TP3 7710.
Once the targets are hit consider SHORTING in the window 7720-7760

EUR/AUD:
Looking for a reversal signal NORTH at 6870-6910, if that
confirms, can go LONG for 1.7380 SL 1.6840.

UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, ASIAN:

Current SELL WINDOW EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY

EUR/JPY

1st 146.30
2d 146.10
3d 145.70

TP 100-200 pips
SL 147.60 move to break even once in profit

GBP/JPY

1st 211 15
2d 210 95
3d 210 60

TP 100-200 pips
SL 211.60 move stop to break even once in profit and trail

GBP/JPY countertrend trade, be careful!

1st BUY 209.65-209.80
2d BUY 210.00-210.20
TP 211.40 SL 209.40

This trade only good for the next 4 hours, once the pairs bottoms out.
Can BUY EUR/JPY same time for 60 pips.

EUR and CABLE levels coming up shortly, updating the scorecard now.

NEW TRADE SETUP

NZD/USD

LONG 1st 0.5990 2d 0.6040 TP 0.6380 0.6540 SL 0.5900
High probability trade

AUD/USD

SHORT ST 0.7510-0.7520 SL 7560 TP 7420 this one a 100 pips trade.

GBP/USD more risky trade

SHORT 8480-8520 area SL 8560 TP 70 pips.
would rather short from higher levels, or if you
have shorts since last week, advise to hold them now.

AUD/CAD setup

This item is shifting cycles as well, to a new uptrend, however right now
will likely retrace lower.

BUY WINDOW 0.8180-0.8230 SL 0.8100 TP 0.8560 going for 360 pips here.
Im also shorting at current levels (0.8390-0.8440) but can't recommend that to anyone.

So far:

EUR/JPY is +160
GBP/JPY +100
USD/CHF + 70
GBP/USD + 80
EUR/USD +60
GOLD + $9
EUR/CHF -40
USD/JPY - 90 - maybe close this trade and wait for a better setup.

PS:
1) I don't recommend closing EUR/CHF with a loss, since it will go up as soon at EUR drops.
2) USD/JPY - Do not recommend to close witha loss, since this pair will reach 110 in the nearest future - refer to the attached PDF file.
3) You could generally trade the pair in the direction of the trend, which is SOUTH for everything, aside from USD/CHF, which is going NORTH.
4) Name of the game trading strong trend on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is short on any retracement from the dips.
5) AUD/NZD is a little bit slow, so no analysis and setups for now.

THIS THREAD IS CLOSED! Please no posts here, thank you!

New trades posted with comments in attached PDF file. Thread closed till END of next trading week. Update Part2 coming after 14/07/06.

UPDATE on posted trades:

EUR SL hit - 70
GBP SL hit - 80
EUR/JPY +80 (I got in early +110) holding
GBP/JPY +60 holding
SPOT GOLD +4 holding
EUR/CHF holding SL moved to 1.5600 TP is 1.5770 -30 now

NEW Trade (not in PDF) SHORT AUD/NZD NOW OR (1.2320) SL is 1.2380 TP1 1.2240 TP2 1.2180 TP3 is 1.2080 TP4 is 1.1860. Last up to 3 months.

Previously posted trades:

SHORT EUR/JPY NOW SL 147.80 TP (revised target1) 136.00 Can take GBP/JPY SHORT too
SHORT EUR/USD NOW SL 1.2840 TP (target1) 1.2660 1.2540 1.2400
SHORT GBP/USD NOW SL 1.8480 TP 1.8200
LONG EUR/CHF NOW SL 1.5660 TP 1.5780
SHORT SPOT GOLD NOW SL 638 TP 530

Update SUNDAY.

Have a good weekend and a profitable trading week!

[rufffen]

IMPORTANT NOTICE:

Monday will either start with a retrace, that will be EASY to NOTICE, or continuation of the rally (retrace 75% rally 25%), so that's where I will try to make money on COUNTERTREND TRADES.

HOWEVER DON'T BE FOOLED BY ANY RETRACES, FED DECISION ALREADY PRICED IN, AND YEAR HIGHS ON EURO WILL BE REFRESHED IN A MATTER OF DAYS NOW. BUY DIPS.

Since the volatility will be VERY HIGH this week, due to USDX retests of double-bottoms, range could be wild, especially towards Friday as the currencies might start to top/bottom out (majors), however Id expect true tops no earlier then 14th August and more likely 18th August.

[rufffen]

SETUPS SCORECARD COMING UP ON SUNDAY.

[rufffen]

EUR USD EW MONTHLY CHART - OBJECTIVES ARE RIGHT THERE.

I do expect EURO appriciation to be capped with 1.3600 though, and most likely mid-term top won't go past 1.3100, however refreshed new year highs mean further upside to come, so let's keep close watch on that item.

[rufffen]

OK, here's the scorecard with setups for the next week, this would be a black Tuesday for the USD.

Please come back for updates US close on Monday, since I could revise SL, TP will remain the same.

[rufffen]

One can take profits on EUR CAD now and move EUR USD to BE ( I think it wont go past the current levels).

[rufffen]

EUR JPY SL hit -45
EUR CAD TP hit +105
EUR USD TP hit +46
GBP USD SL hit moved to BE as recommended.


Other possies still going, Id move SL on GBP USD to 1925 just in case it cracks it early. EUR USD SL at BE.

Ill update setups for FED date at US Close.

EUR JPY was a particularly BAD setups that I posted, I didn't look at GBP JPY with clearly indicated more upside, and the EUR JPY was just lagging behind, oh well.

[rufffen]

OK, Update for FED rates

USD CHF You can hold shorts from last week, OR ADD NET SHORT AT/BELOW 2200 levels, SL 2260 TP 2000. TAKE THIS TRADE on break of 2200. SL on majors 40 pips.

EUR USD and GBP USD You can wait for break of CHF lows or GBP highs to take NET LONG position TP on EUR USD 3080 TP on GPB USD 9360. Id suggest to have CHF and GBP 5 minute charts open and watch the GBP recent high and CHF low before taking a position.

USD CAD Position NET SHORT SELL WINDOW looking good at 1120-1140 TP 1050.

EUR CAD This one should be traded direction of USD CAD, however I ADVISE TO STAY OUT! IGNORE THIS SETUP!

[rufffen]

EW MAJORS UPDATE:

All of the longer-term EW counts on EUR and GBP (4 hour 8 hour day week month) show a clear uptrend with targets at least 200-400 pips way NORTH, so no reason to take a short position at this stage.

[rufffen]

NEW SETUP AUD/NZD

BUY BUY AT CURRENT PRICE 2165 (+-40 pips) SL 2040 TP1 2320.

All this major buisness got caught up and nearly missed a great setup, I also was short AUD NZD from 2380 and closed it now.

[rufffen]

Was a non-event with no surprises there, some setups did OK (EUR AUD) some you should have SL at BE, I think CHF was stopped out but, Ill double check that.

I still got EUR longs going with CHF-hedge to offset any possible losses, will unload it when recent highs on EUR are broken, or hold and close EUR trade once we break out of the uptrend channel.

All in all a poor start, but I expect some good action towards Thursday/Friday, as the markets start to absorbs implications of FED tightening.

[rufffen]

OK, everyone caught up in range on majors, let's try something else for a change

NEW SETUP AUD/USD

AUD USD SELL SELL WINDOW 7550-7575 SL 7700 TP 7200.

[rufffen]

OK, running total so far is

EUR JPY SL hit -45
EUR CAD TP hit +105
EUR USD TP hit +46
EUR AUD TP hit +92
AUD/NZD -76
AUD/USD -12

Majors got stopped out at asian (CHF EUR CAD), stop was at BE as I advise to move it in as soon as the trade runs +10/+20

Overall not impressed this week, seems as though Im out of sync with the markets.

[rufffen]

no more setups till next week.

[rufffen]

MAJORS MID-TERM UPDATE:

EUR USD

This one item looks like topping action, can't break the previous double top as of yet, however Id like to see topping at 2980-3080 area before jumping short for a major reversal.

GBP USD

Looks like a top, but true top likely to be reached within 9240-9320 area within next 5-8 days. This would represent an excellent areas to load up shorts.

USD CHF

CHF testing recent lows and it doesn't look like they will hold out, Id say once 2200 goes, we could test lower lows around 2000 area, from that point onwards this pair will make a big move NORTH and reverse for good.

SO all in all I don't feel comfortable trading the current range, as I think it's easy to get squeezed in the range and loose much money. Id recommend to wait for a true top and load shorts from the TOP.

[rufffen]

NEW SETUP USD JPY

Looking like a nice setup, USD JPY SELL SELL WINDOW 115.65-115.85 SL 116.10 TP114.60