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[rufffen]

NEW LEVELS IN THE ATTACHED TABLE!

UPDATE 12/07/06 wed, US:

GBP/USD

Good idea is to add some to NET SHORT @ 1.8400-8430 SL 8480 TP 8240, or 100 pips away. Good confidence with this one trade.
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY

Look for yen to topout 115.90-116.20, after a clean reversal Id recommend to short EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, however make sure YEN reverses SOUTH first! If EUR/JPY trades above 147.40 or actually if it breaks 147.00 Id recommend to stay out of that trade.

Current EUR/JPY resistance is 146.88, 14727 14708 are overshoot levels, anything strong above that level, please stay out!

EUR/AUD:

This item looks like it's reversing, however I can't confirm that, since I got two conflicting setups right now. FLAT NOW.

Have two fractal for SOUTH/NORTH move, now the idea is to wait for confirmation and either SHORT TOP or BUY BOTTOM, once the fractal is confirmed.


UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, US:

Considering a new trade setup:

AUD/USD

If the SHORT trade gets stopped out consider a new setup

BUY AUD/USD 7550 SL 7460 TP1 7600 TP2 7660 TP3 7710.
Once the targets are hit consider SHORTING in the window 7720-7760

EUR/AUD:
Looking for a reversal signal NORTH at 6870-6910, if that
confirms, can go LONG for 1.7380 SL 1.6840.

UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, ASIAN:

Current SELL WINDOW EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY

EUR/JPY

1st 146.30
2d 146.10
3d 145.70

TP 100-200 pips
SL 147.60 move to break even once in profit

GBP/JPY

1st 211 15
2d 210 95
3d 210 60

TP 100-200 pips
SL 211.60 move stop to break even once in profit and trail

GBP/JPY countertrend trade, be careful!

1st BUY 209.65-209.80
2d BUY 210.00-210.20
TP 211.40 SL 209.40

This trade only good for the next 4 hours, once the pairs bottoms out.
Can BUY EUR/JPY same time for 60 pips.

EUR and CABLE levels coming up shortly, updating the scorecard now.

NEW TRADE SETUP

NZD/USD

LONG 1st 0.5990 2d 0.6040 TP 0.6380 0.6540 SL 0.5900
High probability trade

AUD/USD

SHORT ST 0.7510-0.7520 SL 7560 TP 7420 this one a 100 pips trade.

GBP/USD more risky trade

SHORT 8480-8520 area SL 8560 TP 70 pips.
would rather short from higher levels, or if you
have shorts since last week, advise to hold them now.

AUD/CAD setup

This item is shifting cycles as well, to a new uptrend, however right now
will likely retrace lower.

BUY WINDOW 0.8180-0.8230 SL 0.8100 TP 0.8560 going for 360 pips here.
Im also shorting at current levels (0.8390-0.8440) but can't recommend that to anyone.

So far:

EUR/JPY is +160
GBP/JPY +100
USD/CHF + 70
GBP/USD + 80
EUR/USD +60
GOLD + $9
EUR/CHF -40
USD/JPY - 90 - maybe close this trade and wait for a better setup.

PS:
1) I don't recommend closing EUR/CHF with a loss, since it will go up as soon at EUR drops.
2) USD/JPY - Do not recommend to close witha loss, since this pair will reach 110 in the nearest future - refer to the attached PDF file.
3) You could generally trade the pair in the direction of the trend, which is SOUTH for everything, aside from USD/CHF, which is going NORTH.
4) Name of the game trading strong trend on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is short on any retracement from the dips.
5) AUD/NZD is a little bit slow, so no analysis and setups for now.

THIS THREAD IS CLOSED! Please no posts here, thank you!

New trades posted with comments in attached PDF file. Thread closed till END of next trading week. Update Part2 coming after 14/07/06.

UPDATE on posted trades:

EUR SL hit - 70
GBP SL hit - 80
EUR/JPY +80 (I got in early +110) holding
GBP/JPY +60 holding
SPOT GOLD +4 holding
EUR/CHF holding SL moved to 1.5600 TP is 1.5770 -30 now

NEW Trade (not in PDF) SHORT AUD/NZD NOW OR (1.2320) SL is 1.2380 TP1 1.2240 TP2 1.2180 TP3 is 1.2080 TP4 is 1.1860. Last up to 3 months.

Previously posted trades:

SHORT EUR/JPY NOW SL 147.80 TP (revised target1) 136.00 Can take GBP/JPY SHORT too
SHORT EUR/USD NOW SL 1.2840 TP (target1) 1.2660 1.2540 1.2400
SHORT GBP/USD NOW SL 1.8480 TP 1.8200
LONG EUR/CHF NOW SL 1.5660 TP 1.5780
SHORT SPOT GOLD NOW SL 638 TP 530

Update SUNDAY.

Have a good weekend and a profitable trading week!

[rufffen]

Update as to #9, XAU spot gold reached 656 today, now next stop is 674 for this item, or might start to retrace soon, however it's hard to see a retrace with so much trouble in the world, investors dumping currencies, buying precious metals now. Id say if it establishes above 672 we'll see it above 700 very soon. It's extremely VOLATILE ITEM now, Im not trading it recently, can't recommend any trades.

[rufffen]

XAU SPOT GOLD Update: Download PDF with turning points price/time here, select Free, enter 4 digit code in the top right and hit download, wait for a timeout and save to your local drive.

Next turning point is 14th-15th this month.

[rufffen]

EUR/USD Update: This item might try for 2550-2650 soon, broke important levels today, below monthly balance zone and broke weekly support zone1, break of 2659 might indicate 2500 downside in coming days.

Still puzzled with the USDX going up, and XAU spot gold going same way? Hardly see it at any rate, most times its inverse correlation between these two items.

[rufffen]

GBP/USD Update: Might retrace frin the current levels to 8380-8420, might be a good idea to take small SHORT positions from that levels with tight 20-30 pips stop.

[rufffen]

More updates on EUR/JPY in the first post at the top.

[rufffen]

EUR/JPY trade was stopped out for -80, GBP/JPY stopped out for -100.
Price I pay for entering too early, these items will drop as soon as YEN reaches 115.90-116.20.

TOTAL TALLY TODAY: -180 pips.

[rufffen]

TRADE1
EUR/JPY + 180
GBP/JPY + 160

COUNTERTREND TRADE 2
EUR/JPY + 172
GBP/JPY + 184

TRADE3
EUR/JPY - 80
GBP/JPY - 100

AUD/USD SHORT1 - 60 two trades, holding one long now

EUR/CHF +10 pips

EUR/USD

+107 since sunday


GBP/USD
+123 since sunday

USD/JPY

-90 since sunday

USD/CHF

+143 since sunday

TOTAL since sunday:
+ 809 pips per lot

XAU SPOT GOLD trade stop moved to break even as per my recommendation.
2d trade wasn't triggered.

From now Id like to post setups on EUR/USD GBP/USD and yen crosses only, XAU and AUD and CAD crosses are secondary setups.

Im more comfortable doing YEN crosses and major, as my methods seem to work better here.

REMINDER: Im not a commercial SIGNALS VENDOR, always use discretion and lets make some pips on the way (hopefully).

[rufffen]

YEN CROSSES: No trade setups for Thursday, anticipating BOJ decision markets can and will go WILD. Ill post a few charts on USD/JPY with possible levels to watch during the BOJ announcment, I do favor a move SOUTH, however nothing is for certain.

YEN charts coming up shortly.

[rufffen]

Here's 2 possible scenarios on USD/JPY 4 hour charts, since this week YEN will be driving everything else on Fridays, BOJ statement is out.

OK, above 116.20 Id say we are capped around 117.60 anything above that will be resisted.

Downside clearly has more potential, we could top out now around 116.00 area and reverse SOUTH, and if the rates are hiked this one time, the YEN item might drop to 112.80 and from that point retrace and continue into the downtrend towards 108-110.

I favor the SOUTH/downturn scenario, however lets watch the markets on Thursay, if there are any updates, Ill let you know.

[rufffen]

Finally, one question needs to be addressed here, EUR/USD and USD/JPY have inverse correlation generally, meaning that if one goes up another item goes down. Since so many are expecting further losses on EUR/USD, can USD/JPY decline at the same time with EURO?

Id say this is an option, if the prices are yen-driven, i.e. if yen cross EUR/JPY declines on pure YEN action, EUR/USD might decline regardless of USDX action, this has happened before, and I don't see any reason that it can't happen again.

[rufffen]

First post updated 12th July 22:00 GMT.

[rufffen]

EUR/JPY Thursday update: Watching price action on 1hour charts, Im pretty confident that this item will dive to 145.40-145.60 anf from that point onwards will try for the highs around 147.20-147.40 and will fail to break it, Id say best idea is to wait for retest of recent highs and short that item from 147.00-147.60, since Id expect this to be the last retest of the highs before a continuous downtrend kicks in.

GBP/JPY: This item is overshooting to extremes, GBP/USD seems to be the main driver of WILD price action here, however once EUR/JPY starts to go SOUTH continously, this item will follow the suit.

Wont recommend any position on any items, waiting for EUR/JPY to drop and retest recent highs to short both items.

[rufffen]

USD/JPY Update: Rates out Friday, so Ill stick with SOUTH scenario on YEN, Id say we can spike up to 116.20-116.40 and then go all the way down (up to 400 pips down), but I don't expect it to make to 112 in one day.

If things start to move past 116.20-116.40 mark on yen, Id wait for a possible topping action around 117.40-117.80 and go short again with stop around 118 area - this could be an option if the rates remain the same.

Once YEN starts dropping Id look to short crosses too, but so far I cant recommend any good trading setup, since GBP/JPY is overshooting too much.

[rufffen]

EUR/JPY has to stay below 147.60 for anyone to consider shorting it, otherwise 147.60 might not be an absolute top.

[rufffen]

GBP/JPY update: This item just cant get enough of action, still going NORTH, I spot reversals counting fractals, this fractal is just crazy, 2 more 1 hour candles, and I think the 213.80 is toast. 213.00 is Dec05 high, 213.60 is a more recent high, lets see if this item reverses soon, I see a valid 3tops/2bots fractal, which is a strong reversal signal.