EUR/JPY CYCLES UPDATE Part1

[rufffen]

What one can expect prior to FED RATES DECISION?

USD JPY drop 200-300 pips
GBP USD rise 300 pips
EUR USD rise 200 pips

I will post updated trades after US closing, since I need the closing prices.

[rufffen]

This has been an average week, total resuts per one lot on all currencies, including all the EUR and GBP losses (unfortunate):

+425 per one lot

Looking back this week, I had two gusstimates, one was bad ECB data (wrong) and one was bad NFP (right), so Ill keep posting future guesstimates to see if this can workout (don't ask me what I use, and no, it's not flipping coins).

A week ahead should be slightly better and the strategy will be to BUY DIPS on majors.

[rufffen]

Here's a brief plan for next week:

WEEK OPEN: SHORT MAJORS (EUR and GBP) and LONG (YEN and CHF) at market open price SL FRIDAY HIGH/LOW TP 60-100 pips, I will update all targets on Sunday.
MID-WEEK: LONG EUR and GBP and SHORT YEN and CHF. TP 80-150 pips SL low/high of the 01 August 2006. Update TP/SL as we go.

Will have some nice setups on YEN Crosses and EUR Crosses as well.

Have a good weekend guys!

[rufffen]

SP500 Chart attached.What one should note on this 1 hour chart, is the uptrend structurem which is zigzagging upwards, also the previous high was taken out, which indicates futher strenght and rally on cards.

Finally, how far can it go really? About 1310-1314 I expect the move to loose strenght and start to cool off, and then further reaction will send SP500 lower, lower yet, and yet again, losses will be equal or in excess of 100 points.

It might stage a rally beginning early next week, or post-FED decision, what one must realise is that SP500 is a barometer of the US Economy and will establish further direction of FX markets.

Looking at GBP USD USD losses likely to be capped with 9300 and EUR USD USD losses can extend towards 3020 and 3090 area.

Cautios selling recommended for a mild retrace early at market open, positioning for the FED announcement is NORTH on EUR USD, BUYING RECOMMENDED on any pullbacks.

POSITIONS SUMMARY UPDATE ON SUNDAY.

[rufffen]

MARKET ORDERS UPCOMING WEEK

WEEK OPEN GBP and EUR SETUPS:

SELL SELL at MARKET OPEN PRICE:

EUR USD TP1 2830 TP2 2812
GBP USD TP1 9010

SL on BOTH ITEMS 40 PIPS.
PRE-RATES TUESDAY BUY SETUPS:

EUR USD BUY BUY WINDOW 2780-2840 2770 should hold prior to data release SL 2740

GBP USD BUY WINDOW (this one is harder to calculate) 8880-8940 8870 should hold prior to data release SL here is 8840

[rufffen]

ON YEN CROSSES I SEE GREAT FURTHER DOWNSIDE.

GBP JPY at least 216 and EUR JPY 146.00, Ill post setups once I review the charts

[rufffen]

Here's a longer-term USDJPY scenario that's likely to be on the cards for the time to come. There will be some correction of the downtrend later towards this Friday - early week after the FED rates come out (possible on positive USD news, maybe temporary cease fire).

What one should be aware of is that GBP seems to be the locomotive of the uptrend, and since it established new highs this year, EURO will do the same, only a question of time now (2-3 weeks at the most).

[rufffen]

NEW TRADE SETUP / UPDATE ON EUR JPY

EUR JPY SELL SELL WINDOW 147.40-147.70 SL remains at 147.90 TP1 146.90

If you had it going previously hold it for the TP / move SL to B.E.