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[rufffen]

NEW LEVELS IN THE ATTACHED TABLE!

UPDATE 12/07/06 wed, US:

GBP/USD

Good idea is to add some to NET SHORT @ 1.8400-8430 SL 8480 TP 8240, or 100 pips away. Good confidence with this one trade.
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY

Look for yen to topout 115.90-116.20, after a clean reversal Id recommend to short EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, however make sure YEN reverses SOUTH first! If EUR/JPY trades above 147.40 or actually if it breaks 147.00 Id recommend to stay out of that trade.

Current EUR/JPY resistance is 146.88, 14727 14708 are overshoot levels, anything strong above that level, please stay out!

EUR/AUD:

This item looks like it's reversing, however I can't confirm that, since I got two conflicting setups right now. FLAT NOW.

Have two fractal for SOUTH/NORTH move, now the idea is to wait for confirmation and either SHORT TOP or BUY BOTTOM, once the fractal is confirmed.


UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, US:

Considering a new trade setup:

AUD/USD

If the SHORT trade gets stopped out consider a new setup

BUY AUD/USD 7550 SL 7460 TP1 7600 TP2 7660 TP3 7710.
Once the targets are hit consider SHORTING in the window 7720-7760

EUR/AUD:
Looking for a reversal signal NORTH at 6870-6910, if that
confirms, can go LONG for 1.7380 SL 1.6840.

UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, ASIAN:

Current SELL WINDOW EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY

EUR/JPY

1st 146.30
2d 146.10
3d 145.70

TP 100-200 pips
SL 147.60 move to break even once in profit

GBP/JPY

1st 211 15
2d 210 95
3d 210 60

TP 100-200 pips
SL 211.60 move stop to break even once in profit and trail

GBP/JPY countertrend trade, be careful!

1st BUY 209.65-209.80
2d BUY 210.00-210.20
TP 211.40 SL 209.40

This trade only good for the next 4 hours, once the pairs bottoms out.
Can BUY EUR/JPY same time for 60 pips.

EUR and CABLE levels coming up shortly, updating the scorecard now.

NEW TRADE SETUP

NZD/USD

LONG 1st 0.5990 2d 0.6040 TP 0.6380 0.6540 SL 0.5900
High probability trade

AUD/USD

SHORT ST 0.7510-0.7520 SL 7560 TP 7420 this one a 100 pips trade.

GBP/USD more risky trade

SHORT 8480-8520 area SL 8560 TP 70 pips.
would rather short from higher levels, or if you
have shorts since last week, advise to hold them now.

AUD/CAD setup

This item is shifting cycles as well, to a new uptrend, however right now
will likely retrace lower.

BUY WINDOW 0.8180-0.8230 SL 0.8100 TP 0.8560 going for 360 pips here.
Im also shorting at current levels (0.8390-0.8440) but can't recommend that to anyone.

So far:

EUR/JPY is +160
GBP/JPY +100
USD/CHF + 70
GBP/USD + 80
EUR/USD +60
GOLD + $9
EUR/CHF -40
USD/JPY - 90 - maybe close this trade and wait for a better setup.

PS:
1) I don't recommend closing EUR/CHF with a loss, since it will go up as soon at EUR drops.
2) USD/JPY - Do not recommend to close witha loss, since this pair will reach 110 in the nearest future - refer to the attached PDF file.
3) You could generally trade the pair in the direction of the trend, which is SOUTH for everything, aside from USD/CHF, which is going NORTH.
4) Name of the game trading strong trend on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is short on any retracement from the dips.
5) AUD/NZD is a little bit slow, so no analysis and setups for now.

THIS THREAD IS CLOSED! Please no posts here, thank you!

New trades posted with comments in attached PDF file. Thread closed till END of next trading week. Update Part2 coming after 14/07/06.

UPDATE on posted trades:

EUR SL hit - 70
GBP SL hit - 80
EUR/JPY +80 (I got in early +110) holding
GBP/JPY +60 holding
SPOT GOLD +4 holding
EUR/CHF holding SL moved to 1.5600 TP is 1.5770 -30 now

NEW Trade (not in PDF) SHORT AUD/NZD NOW OR (1.2320) SL is 1.2380 TP1 1.2240 TP2 1.2180 TP3 is 1.2080 TP4 is 1.1860. Last up to 3 months.

Previously posted trades:

SHORT EUR/JPY NOW SL 147.80 TP (revised target1) 136.00 Can take GBP/JPY SHORT too
SHORT EUR/USD NOW SL 1.2840 TP (target1) 1.2660 1.2540 1.2400
SHORT GBP/USD NOW SL 1.8480 TP 1.8200
LONG EUR/CHF NOW SL 1.5660 TP 1.5780
SHORT SPOT GOLD NOW SL 638 TP 530

Update SUNDAY.

Have a good weekend and a profitable trading week!

[rufffen]

EUR/USD UK update: If you are buying now (2520-2540) put SL 2460 and TP1 would be 2680 TP2 2740 TP3 2860 TP4 2920

USD/JPY: Can initiate shorts at 117.20 116.80 and upon break of 115.60 SL 118.00 initially (now) and trail with 60 pips TP1 114.80 and TP2 113.60.

PS on YEN: If this item breaks strong NORTH at the 117.60 levels that means we're bound for 119 on YEN, and EURO will slide to 2300 and cable to sub-8000, so make sure you trail YEN/CABLE/EURO possies once you are in profit, and if YEN breaks 117.60 cut your losses!

[rufffen]

GBP/JPY UK Update: SHORT at 212.40 (on break of 212.50 with strong candle) SL 213.60 TP 209.40.

EUR/JPY: flat for now

[rufffen]

That's a 30 min cable fractal Im trading for the NORTH setups, it's part of a big fractal, which points NORTH bound direction for euro and cable, meanwhile a big fractal on yen points south.

BTW, that GBP/JPY fractal I posted (W-shaped) worked out for 100+ pips, although I did label it incorrectly as wolfe wave, it's a frequent fractal on that yen cross, besides it was a typical double-top formation, so someone prolly caught that move early at the asian session, good on you!.

[rufffen]

USDX (dollar index) update: If the USDX cracks that highlighted level soon, EURO and CABLE will extend losses, and USD/JPY would be set for 119.

Let's wait and see how it acts at the highlighted levels, if you have some long posies on CABLE and EURO try to get out early at B/E and if USDX fails to breakout, reinitiate longs.

I will update USDX chart after US close.

[rufffen]

I initiated small LONGS both EUR and CABLE, EUR SL 2460 CABLE SL 8140 TP on euros posted earlier, TP on CABLE is 8540 8680 and 8760.

This is a good R/R trade (40 pips risk to get 300/500/700), although it could slide lower on me.

[rufffen]

Here's a chart to support my BUY decision on CABLE .

I don't post chart frequently, but every decision is based on EW/fractals/time and price analysis/cycles info and what I see on the charts, not much on the fundumentals.

[rufffen]

XAU spot GOLD, Ill try two setups:

LONG 581 613 640 TP 692 SL depends on if the levels hold (Id say currently sliding because of profit-taking stage).

SHORT 692 TP 648 Id say a SHORT trade setup has more potential.

[rufffen]

EUR/USD: This item is at cross-roads, as prolly everyone is aware of by now. I checked the cycles out, apparently we were 204 calendar days in uptrend, now the downtrend has been ON for 42 days, so it either reverses back NORTH now, which falls in nicely with 1/2/3/4/5 WAVE UP and A/B/C correction DOWN, OR it continues strong in downtrend, for another 2/4/8 weeks now.


If this item doesn't reverse, Id wait for break of low border of SUP ZONE1, which is 2430 and GO SHORT targeting 2000-2200.

Im not revising my LONGS at this stage, and I won't reverse as soon as I get stopped out (IF I DO). Ill SELL at 2430 aread SL would be 2550 and TP1 2260 TP2 2140 TP3 2080.

Please trade CABLE off the EURO scenario.

YEN and YEN crosses Id have to update later at US tomorrow.

Please make sure you have tight stops if you are trading CABLE and EURO long now, according to my scorecard of trades in the first post of this thread.

[rufffen]

USD/CHF update: This setup produced +280 pips per one lots since I posted the trade on 8th of July, it's good idea to take some profits now and leave a few lots trailing for 2600 and more aggressive targets towards 3000 area.

Can buy back at 2360-2380, SL 2320 TP recent highs. This item looks like it will retrace from a big move NORTH.

This item looks like having a hard time breaking through the double-top formation now on 1 hour charts.

[rufffen]

NZD/USD

LONG 1st 0.5990 2d 0.6040 TP 0.6380 0.6540 SL 0.5900
High probability trade

This trade is still pending. Please allow more time for this setup to kickin.

AUD/USD trade is still pending, short the TOP. Targets available at the scorecard in the first post.

[rufffen]

EUR/USD quick US close update: Price action failed to pick direction, so that might just mean that there is more downside to visit soon.

So Id recommend to use tight losses if you initiated CABLE and EURO longs now. If you get stopped out, no worries, once EURO has a clean break of 2440-2460 area you could reverse NET SHORT TP is 2200 on that one, SL would be recent EURO high. With this scenario once euro reaches 2200-2200 it's a good idea to buy back strenght in price action.

[rufffen]

EUR/AUD: Prepare to go long at 6470-6520, SL is 6400 TP1 6880 TP2 7020, going for 500 pips here, risk exposure is 120 pips.

[rufffen]

GBP/USD UK update: Now if you had CABLE longs since yesterday, it's wise to take profits, since it's only a mild retrace from the down move, anything below 8330 is just a retrace, if it breaks above 8330 there is more room to BUY the market.

Right now BIAS is SHORT both CABLE and EURO, Id wait for better EUR prices to go short (below 2440 is good on EURO).

For good R/R I don't see any decent setups now.

[rufffen]

If any of yous got any comments/suggestions, feel free to either PM me or MSN, MSN ID is rufffenfx@hotmail.com, Im trading UK through US sessions most times, although I work full-time in another field of business.

I will be updating trades scorecard @ US close today, apparently nothing exciting to report as of now. Some of you took LONG trades, CABLE was a slightly better performer, shoot up 100 or so pips, EURO won't budge, floating +-20 pips same narrow channel.

Currently CABLE looks to be a better SHORT rather than LONG, since prolly specs driving it higher, but BIG account keep pressure to the downside, Id say every 10 pips NORTH on CABLE big boys ADD lots SOUTH.

[rufffen]

NZD/USD update: Initiate SHORT trade at 6320-6360 range SL 6380 TP1 6100 TP2 6040 TP3 5960.

Also Im going to BUY it from the bottom. BTW, check out AUD/NZD charts, I was looking to SHORT that setup, but didn't have enough confidence, this item dropped 400 pips since BEG of JULY, crazy!