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[rufffen]

NEW LEVELS IN THE ATTACHED TABLE!

UPDATE 12/07/06 wed, US:

GBP/USD

Good idea is to add some to NET SHORT @ 1.8400-8430 SL 8480 TP 8240, or 100 pips away. Good confidence with this one trade.
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY

Look for yen to topout 115.90-116.20, after a clean reversal Id recommend to short EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, however make sure YEN reverses SOUTH first! If EUR/JPY trades above 147.40 or actually if it breaks 147.00 Id recommend to stay out of that trade.

Current EUR/JPY resistance is 146.88, 14727 14708 are overshoot levels, anything strong above that level, please stay out!

EUR/AUD:

This item looks like it's reversing, however I can't confirm that, since I got two conflicting setups right now. FLAT NOW.

Have two fractal for SOUTH/NORTH move, now the idea is to wait for confirmation and either SHORT TOP or BUY BOTTOM, once the fractal is confirmed.


UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, US:

Considering a new trade setup:

AUD/USD

If the SHORT trade gets stopped out consider a new setup

BUY AUD/USD 7550 SL 7460 TP1 7600 TP2 7660 TP3 7710.
Once the targets are hit consider SHORTING in the window 7720-7760

EUR/AUD:
Looking for a reversal signal NORTH at 6870-6910, if that
confirms, can go LONG for 1.7380 SL 1.6840.

UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, ASIAN:

Current SELL WINDOW EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY

EUR/JPY

1st 146.30
2d 146.10
3d 145.70

TP 100-200 pips
SL 147.60 move to break even once in profit

GBP/JPY

1st 211 15
2d 210 95
3d 210 60

TP 100-200 pips
SL 211.60 move stop to break even once in profit and trail

GBP/JPY countertrend trade, be careful!

1st BUY 209.65-209.80
2d BUY 210.00-210.20
TP 211.40 SL 209.40

This trade only good for the next 4 hours, once the pairs bottoms out.
Can BUY EUR/JPY same time for 60 pips.

EUR and CABLE levels coming up shortly, updating the scorecard now.

NEW TRADE SETUP

NZD/USD

LONG 1st 0.5990 2d 0.6040 TP 0.6380 0.6540 SL 0.5900
High probability trade

AUD/USD

SHORT ST 0.7510-0.7520 SL 7560 TP 7420 this one a 100 pips trade.

GBP/USD more risky trade

SHORT 8480-8520 area SL 8560 TP 70 pips.
would rather short from higher levels, or if you
have shorts since last week, advise to hold them now.

AUD/CAD setup

This item is shifting cycles as well, to a new uptrend, however right now
will likely retrace lower.

BUY WINDOW 0.8180-0.8230 SL 0.8100 TP 0.8560 going for 360 pips here.
Im also shorting at current levels (0.8390-0.8440) but can't recommend that to anyone.

So far:

EUR/JPY is +160
GBP/JPY +100
USD/CHF + 70
GBP/USD + 80
EUR/USD +60
GOLD + $9
EUR/CHF -40
USD/JPY - 90 - maybe close this trade and wait for a better setup.

PS:
1) I don't recommend closing EUR/CHF with a loss, since it will go up as soon at EUR drops.
2) USD/JPY - Do not recommend to close witha loss, since this pair will reach 110 in the nearest future - refer to the attached PDF file.
3) You could generally trade the pair in the direction of the trend, which is SOUTH for everything, aside from USD/CHF, which is going NORTH.
4) Name of the game trading strong trend on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is short on any retracement from the dips.
5) AUD/NZD is a little bit slow, so no analysis and setups for now.

THIS THREAD IS CLOSED! Please no posts here, thank you!

New trades posted with comments in attached PDF file. Thread closed till END of next trading week. Update Part2 coming after 14/07/06.

UPDATE on posted trades:

EUR SL hit - 70
GBP SL hit - 80
EUR/JPY +80 (I got in early +110) holding
GBP/JPY +60 holding
SPOT GOLD +4 holding
EUR/CHF holding SL moved to 1.5600 TP is 1.5770 -30 now

NEW Trade (not in PDF) SHORT AUD/NZD NOW OR (1.2320) SL is 1.2380 TP1 1.2240 TP2 1.2180 TP3 is 1.2080 TP4 is 1.1860. Last up to 3 months.

Previously posted trades:

SHORT EUR/JPY NOW SL 147.80 TP (revised target1) 136.00 Can take GBP/JPY SHORT too
SHORT EUR/USD NOW SL 1.2840 TP (target1) 1.2660 1.2540 1.2400
SHORT GBP/USD NOW SL 1.8480 TP 1.8200
LONG EUR/CHF NOW SL 1.5660 TP 1.5780
SHORT SPOT GOLD NOW SL 638 TP 530

Update SUNDAY.

Have a good weekend and a profitable trading week!

[rufffen]

NZD and AUD update: Looks like I finally deciphered the pairs, what Im looking at now, three setups, very nice R/R:

AUD/NZD: BUY WINDOW 1.1800-1.1860 SL 1.1740 (120 pips) TP1 1.2040 TP2 1.2160 TP3 2300 TP4 2440.

AUD/USD: BUY WINDOW 0.7280- 0.7340 SL 7240 TP1 7480 TP2 7560 TP3 7640 TP4 7760.

NZD/USD: SELL WINDOW 0.6310-0.6360 SL 0.6380 TP1 0.6180 TP2 0.6080 TP3 0.5980.

Please note that in order for these trade setups to work, all of the prices MUST line up according to my scenario. If there will be any revision, I will update the post accordingly.

If I had different setups on these currencies, disregard them (AUD/USD trade was triggered and was stopped out, results were updated accordingly).

Right now it's waiting time. All of the trades are BEST confirmed with candle reversal fractal, such as Morning Stars/DOJI/Hanging Man on 60/240min timeframes. BETTER enter later but with more confidence.

[rufffen]

Attached is the PDF with CandleStick basics, all the good reversal patters are outlined here.

[rufffen]

USDX (dollar index) UPDATE: This item looks like it broke the double top formation, trading above 87 right now, BOTH DAILY and 1 hour EW analysis pointing more UPSIDE, 1/2/3/4/5 impulsive action will bring it to 87.60-87.80 VERY SOON.

So what that means is the EURO and CABLE descent from the current levels is almost eminent now.

XAU SPOT GOLD sliding lower, Id expect next target 613 580 and the low at 564 to be reached withing next 1-2-3 weeks.

[rufffen]

EUR/JPY update: This item is in strong RALLY mode, anything above 147.80 will see it trade at 153.00-154.00 near future. However, Im only looking to go SHORT on that pair, no setups as of now. Quite possible it could start the descent though, if EURO downtrend gets a good boost soon.

GBP/JPY: Crazy, that's what Ill call the action here, anthing above 216 will see this item trade at 219 near future. Might follow the EUR/JPY if CABLE accelerates in dowtrend. Will update possible setups, as soon as I spot a good trade.

USD/JPY: How does the YEN fair with dollar strength? This item looks like it will extend losses towards 119 mid-term, from that point onwards Id say it's a good idea to trade it SOUTH (short). Alternatively it could extend towards 122.80, but at this stage this is not very likely.

USDX: Mid-term will establish above 87 levels, will try to extend towards 88 and possible 89 areas, which in turn will be reflected in EURO/CABLE/YEN weakness mid-term.

[rufffen]

GBP/JPY chart of the DAY: Could this be the topping action with RISING WEDGE in the uptrend? Let's wait and see, sure does look good, but recently I had same pattern FAILURE on XAU SPOT GOLD, so nothing to get excited about at this stage.

[rufffen]

AUD/NZD: BUY WINDOW 1.1800-1.1860 SL 1.1740 (120 pips) TP1 1.2040 TP2 1.2160 TP3 2300 TP4 2440.

This trade is 60 pips away from being triggered HOWEVER I don't see confluence with AUD/USD and NZD/USD, Id say it still looks like a VERY GOOD SETUP, so please hold on for further updates.

Id like to see at least NZD/USD reversal for AUD/NZD trade to get triggered.

[rufffen]

EUR/JPY UK update: Im looking for a reversal candle fractal at 147.40-147.70 area, this could be a good trade for 100+ pips, lets wait. SL would be 148.20 on that one.

GBP/JPY UK update: 215.40-215.60 is a good SELL window, this pair looks like a three drives fractal, so almost certain that it will drop soon. SL 216.00. Only get in at an indicated price.

THE TRADES ARE NOT CONFIRMED YET! I will update when we hit the indicated levels.

Elsewhere: AUD/NZD AUD/USD NZD/USD haven't hit my price levels. CABLE and EURO still stalling, Id expect some action at CPI today.

[rufffen]

XAU SPOT GOLD: Currently +22 on that one, TP1 is 614 area, 4 dollars to go, TP2 is 580 and TP3 is 564 +-3 dollars, you can trail this trade with 8 dollar stop and move to B/E if you are in and want to hold longer.

[rufffen]

S&P500 futures update: I don't usually trade indices, but since I got a new spreadbetting account, Im looking at that one setup now, currently it's trading at 1236 Id say from that point onwards will rally towards 1320, time wise will take prolly 61-74 days from now on.

[rufffen]

GBP/USD: Can try small LONG (countertrend trade) at 8170-8190 area SL 8160 TP 8260, hardly worth it, but looks like a good setup.

TP2 could be 8340 which give better R/R on that one, so trail the trade once you reach TP1 8260. 8340 if hit will be a major reversal on CABLE, 20th of JULY.

Elsewhere no other trades triggered.

[rufffen]

NZD/USD update: Apparently this item reversed to the downside now, Im colorblind or something, missed that one, it wasn't in sync with aussie and aussie cross pair.

Right now Im looking to BUY, the BUY WINDOW is 5960-6000 SL is 5940 TP1 6200 TP2 6400 going for 200/400 pips with this one. Don't chase it on the move SOUTH, it's only a temporary action, reaction will be a much better R/R trade.

[rufffen]

XAU SPOT GOLD: Trailing stop hit 22-8 = +14 on that one, get in later

GBP/USD: Since the last trade (long) was not triggered, I see another setup to SHORT this one @ 8470-8500 area SL 8560 TP1 8300 TP2 8100 TP3 7900

Just revised SL levels, since last times it overshot 40 pips and I got stopped out on an otherwise profitable trade.

[rufffen]

EUR/CAD setup: Short at 4400 SL 4470 TP1 4200 TP2 3800 that setup will take anywhere from 10-14 days to get triggered.

USD/JPY: Short at 118.80-119.40 SL 119.80 TP1 116.00 TP2 114.00
This setup will take 1-2 weeks to be triggered.

I will update the scorecard with all PENDING trades over the weekend, no free time at this stage.

[rufffen]

EUR/JPY: Something doesn't stack up with my cycles analysis, currenly got 147.40-147.55 as SELL Window, SL would be 147.90, if it doesn't stop there, it's going further NORTH.

GBP/JPY: Update, Stay out of that possible trade. I don't quite see things lining up for a proper setup now.

[rufffen]

USD/JPY update: There is some indication that this item might've topped out, since it bounced 120 pips off 886 fib level, however there is further upside, possible top could be 118.80 alternatively 119.40 and 120.00, now I know that doesn't give much, however there is more. 118.80 is also 786 fib from 121.40 and 109.20.

Today price action broke the upper limit of the Monthly Resistace Area1, which means we could be bound for Resistace Area2, which is 119.69-121.86, so definately more room on the upside.


If this one item doesn't reverse at current levels, the uptrend on GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY might resume until a final reversal.