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[rufffen]

NEW LEVELS IN THE ATTACHED TABLE!

UPDATE 12/07/06 wed, US:

GBP/USD

Good idea is to add some to NET SHORT @ 1.8400-8430 SL 8480 TP 8240, or 100 pips away. Good confidence with this one trade.
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY

Look for yen to topout 115.90-116.20, after a clean reversal Id recommend to short EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, however make sure YEN reverses SOUTH first! If EUR/JPY trades above 147.40 or actually if it breaks 147.00 Id recommend to stay out of that trade.

Current EUR/JPY resistance is 146.88, 14727 14708 are overshoot levels, anything strong above that level, please stay out!

EUR/AUD:

This item looks like it's reversing, however I can't confirm that, since I got two conflicting setups right now. FLAT NOW.

Have two fractal for SOUTH/NORTH move, now the idea is to wait for confirmation and either SHORT TOP or BUY BOTTOM, once the fractal is confirmed.


UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, US:

Considering a new trade setup:

AUD/USD

If the SHORT trade gets stopped out consider a new setup

BUY AUD/USD 7550 SL 7460 TP1 7600 TP2 7660 TP3 7710.
Once the targets are hit consider SHORTING in the window 7720-7760

EUR/AUD:
Looking for a reversal signal NORTH at 6870-6910, if that
confirms, can go LONG for 1.7380 SL 1.6840.

UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, ASIAN:

Current SELL WINDOW EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY

EUR/JPY

1st 146.30
2d 146.10
3d 145.70

TP 100-200 pips
SL 147.60 move to break even once in profit

GBP/JPY

1st 211 15
2d 210 95
3d 210 60

TP 100-200 pips
SL 211.60 move stop to break even once in profit and trail

GBP/JPY countertrend trade, be careful!

1st BUY 209.65-209.80
2d BUY 210.00-210.20
TP 211.40 SL 209.40

This trade only good for the next 4 hours, once the pairs bottoms out.
Can BUY EUR/JPY same time for 60 pips.

EUR and CABLE levels coming up shortly, updating the scorecard now.

NEW TRADE SETUP

NZD/USD

LONG 1st 0.5990 2d 0.6040 TP 0.6380 0.6540 SL 0.5900
High probability trade

AUD/USD

SHORT ST 0.7510-0.7520 SL 7560 TP 7420 this one a 100 pips trade.

GBP/USD more risky trade

SHORT 8480-8520 area SL 8560 TP 70 pips.
would rather short from higher levels, or if you
have shorts since last week, advise to hold them now.

AUD/CAD setup

This item is shifting cycles as well, to a new uptrend, however right now
will likely retrace lower.

BUY WINDOW 0.8180-0.8230 SL 0.8100 TP 0.8560 going for 360 pips here.
Im also shorting at current levels (0.8390-0.8440) but can't recommend that to anyone.

So far:

EUR/JPY is +160
GBP/JPY +100
USD/CHF + 70
GBP/USD + 80
EUR/USD +60
GOLD + $9
EUR/CHF -40
USD/JPY - 90 - maybe close this trade and wait for a better setup.

PS:
1) I don't recommend closing EUR/CHF with a loss, since it will go up as soon at EUR drops.
2) USD/JPY - Do not recommend to close witha loss, since this pair will reach 110 in the nearest future - refer to the attached PDF file.
3) You could generally trade the pair in the direction of the trend, which is SOUTH for everything, aside from USD/CHF, which is going NORTH.
4) Name of the game trading strong trend on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is short on any retracement from the dips.
5) AUD/NZD is a little bit slow, so no analysis and setups for now.

THIS THREAD IS CLOSED! Please no posts here, thank you!

New trades posted with comments in attached PDF file. Thread closed till END of next trading week. Update Part2 coming after 14/07/06.

UPDATE on posted trades:

EUR SL hit - 70
GBP SL hit - 80
EUR/JPY +80 (I got in early +110) holding
GBP/JPY +60 holding
SPOT GOLD +4 holding
EUR/CHF holding SL moved to 1.5600 TP is 1.5770 -30 now

NEW Trade (not in PDF) SHORT AUD/NZD NOW OR (1.2320) SL is 1.2380 TP1 1.2240 TP2 1.2180 TP3 is 1.2080 TP4 is 1.1860. Last up to 3 months.

Previously posted trades:

SHORT EUR/JPY NOW SL 147.80 TP (revised target1) 136.00 Can take GBP/JPY SHORT too
SHORT EUR/USD NOW SL 1.2840 TP (target1) 1.2660 1.2540 1.2400
SHORT GBP/USD NOW SL 1.8480 TP 1.8200
LONG EUR/CHF NOW SL 1.5660 TP 1.5780
SHORT SPOT GOLD NOW SL 638 TP 530

Update SUNDAY.

Have a good weekend and a profitable trading week!

[rufffen]

EUR/USD mid-term outlook: Got two possible scenarios, we could reverse at 2489 for the 2863 (400 pips almost) or we proceed to dip to 2300 initially, now I can't pinpoint the exact scenario now, but this will be VERY tradeable and easy to recognize.

Elsewhere: AUD/NZD AUD/USD NZD/USD trades are still pending, but Im telling you, this will be big 200 400 600 pips soon.

USDX mid-term: Will update at Asian today.

Overall Id say we can do some top/bot on currencies into September and that point onwards could start trending either one direction.

[rufffen]

US close update: From my MSN conversation w/t another trader: "taking all profits on shorts at 2510-2530 euro and 8320-8360 cable and reverse NET long probably".


Reason is Im revising TPs is a new fractal formation, LONG opportunities on euro and cable wait for entry levels.

[rufffen]

USD/CAD: Possible setup to go SHORT on CAD, Ill wait for euro to come down another 60-80 pips and assess that trade once again. Id say if EUR and cable reverse CAD will be a better mover in terms of pips.

[rufffen]

USDX: Nothing exciting that I can see, I maintain more bullishness mid-term, elsewhere SP500 rallied as per my post last week, however far from the topping action, give or tak 80-120 points from current trading levels. XAU gold looks like setting up for break below 613 but not just yet, might take another small rally for 630-650 area before proceeding with the descent to sub600 and 560 BUY ZONE. Updates as the prices close by the targets.

USD/JPY rally update: Looking at possible scenarios on yen Id say this uptrend is not complete yet, we can do anything in range of 119-121 august.

What I see if potential timing for the trend reversal around 08.20-08.26, time would be more clear as we close by that range.

Currently Ill look for friday first week of august to present 100 or so pips reversal opportunity, this signature has done over 80% spot on for 100+ pips so far, these trades not posted here though.

[rufffen]

EUR/JPY: long time no trade, possible setup to go LONG BUY WINDOW is 146.30-146.60, SL Id say 14600 TP +100 pips on that one.

GBP/JPY looks not so tradeable recently.

[rufffen]

Update on post #57 from 18th July: "EUR/AUD: Prepare to go long at 6470-6520, SL is 6400 TP1 6880 TP2 7020, going for 500 pips here, risk exposure is 120 pips."

EUR/AUD: Waiting for 3-4 4hour candles now to consider this setup, revising entry though 6500-6560 Id say SL needs to be wider here, 6460 at least TPs remain the same (6400 TP1 6880 TP2 7020)

Also have to say thank you to Ronnimar for reminding me of that setup, I had it there in my charts folder for 3 weeks now, but apparently got caught up in action. Thanks mate!

[rufffen]

GBP/USD EUR/USD: Items (especially) EURO attempting a strong reversal, something I overlooked, but oh well, check the 4 hour EURO candles, see if you can identify this pattern here.

Stops on both items at B/E which should be 2700 euro and 8610 cable according to setups I posted Sunday.

EUR/CAD stops to B/E.

If trades get stopped out no more setups this week, cause I can't see any upside potential as of yet. Looks like SIDEWAYS to me.

[rufffen]

WEEKLY UPDATE: EUR/USD got stopped out at B/E; EUR/CAD still going close to B/E stop, GBP/USD close to getting stopped out. Overall that zeroes in all the trades this week, HOWEVER Id look for new setups as soon as opportunities arrise.

If you are following this thread be patient and wait for proper setups, Id continue posting August/September.

NO commercial/paid service, please dont enquire bout signals.

[rufffen]

SP500: Also the rally is stalling now, updating #69 of 19th July, this setup so far is up 30 points, Id try for another 60 points, otherwise B/E. Id say topping action probable around 1310-1320 area, which is a good SELL window on SP500.

[rufffen]

AUD/USD: This item close to SELL ZONE, SELL WINDOW is 7720-7750 SL 7800 TP1 7300 (400 pips), update as we get closer in price.

Elsewhere EUR/AUD lools like reversing NORTH, but Id say its a 2d fakeout like the one last week, time is not up yet for this item to reverse, BUY WINDOW remains the same sub 6560. Targets on LONGS here above 7000 initially.

Probably some of you noticed that the setups are correlated, so Id rather have both EUR/AUD and AUD/USD at proper levels and execute both trades. So lets wait for confirmation here.

[rufffen]

Looks like a simple/typical fractal on EURO 1 hour, so Id setup it that way:

SHORT EUR/USD 2762-2782 SL 2810 TP1 2640 and then see how it goes, I maintain longer-term EURO at 2100 currently.

[rufffen]

EUR/USD should reverse 16 or 23 hours from now on according to that pic I posted.

[rufffen]

GBP/USD ASIAN UPDATE: OK, if you got anything SHORT going on cable, close out, wait for a new SELL WINDOW, which is 8650-8680 SL 8720 TP1 8500, Id say with that wild canlde price action we are going to reach 8660 briefly. Someone taking more risk can LONG current prices, but Id rather SHORT the top.

[rufffen]

Here's 4hour euro KICKER pattern, reason why I won't short the markets. Todays events need to be absorbed and more time for price action to reverse.

Looking to the price reversals targets I think I might revise it well into 31st of August which is next Monday.

Report tomorrow(friday) will prolly drive price action higher and that will last into the weekend.

[rufffen]

Last GBP and EUR trades worked out as expected, Id say today represent a valid mid-term top.

Now Im looking for a reversal once again for 2900 on euro at 2500 levels, same time Id advise to take profits on EUR according to this: TP1 2640 TP2 2560 TP3 2520.

Reversal coming up mid-week next week Id expect. News tomorrow prolly accelerate the move SOUTH (down) on EUR and GBP.