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[rufffen]

NEW LEVELS IN THE ATTACHED TABLE!

UPDATE 12/07/06 wed, US:

GBP/USD

Good idea is to add some to NET SHORT @ 1.8400-8430 SL 8480 TP 8240, or 100 pips away. Good confidence with this one trade.
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY

Look for yen to topout 115.90-116.20, after a clean reversal Id recommend to short EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, however make sure YEN reverses SOUTH first! If EUR/JPY trades above 147.40 or actually if it breaks 147.00 Id recommend to stay out of that trade.

Current EUR/JPY resistance is 146.88, 14727 14708 are overshoot levels, anything strong above that level, please stay out!

EUR/AUD:

This item looks like it's reversing, however I can't confirm that, since I got two conflicting setups right now. FLAT NOW.

Have two fractal for SOUTH/NORTH move, now the idea is to wait for confirmation and either SHORT TOP or BUY BOTTOM, once the fractal is confirmed.


UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, US:

Considering a new trade setup:

AUD/USD

If the SHORT trade gets stopped out consider a new setup

BUY AUD/USD 7550 SL 7460 TP1 7600 TP2 7660 TP3 7710.
Once the targets are hit consider SHORTING in the window 7720-7760

EUR/AUD:
Looking for a reversal signal NORTH at 6870-6910, if that
confirms, can go LONG for 1.7380 SL 1.6840.

UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, ASIAN:

Current SELL WINDOW EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY

EUR/JPY

1st 146.30
2d 146.10
3d 145.70

TP 100-200 pips
SL 147.60 move to break even once in profit

GBP/JPY

1st 211 15
2d 210 95
3d 210 60

TP 100-200 pips
SL 211.60 move stop to break even once in profit and trail

GBP/JPY countertrend trade, be careful!

1st BUY 209.65-209.80
2d BUY 210.00-210.20
TP 211.40 SL 209.40

This trade only good for the next 4 hours, once the pairs bottoms out.
Can BUY EUR/JPY same time for 60 pips.

EUR and CABLE levels coming up shortly, updating the scorecard now.

NEW TRADE SETUP

NZD/USD

LONG 1st 0.5990 2d 0.6040 TP 0.6380 0.6540 SL 0.5900
High probability trade

AUD/USD

SHORT ST 0.7510-0.7520 SL 7560 TP 7420 this one a 100 pips trade.

GBP/USD more risky trade

SHORT 8480-8520 area SL 8560 TP 70 pips.
would rather short from higher levels, or if you
have shorts since last week, advise to hold them now.

AUD/CAD setup

This item is shifting cycles as well, to a new uptrend, however right now
will likely retrace lower.

BUY WINDOW 0.8180-0.8230 SL 0.8100 TP 0.8560 going for 360 pips here.
Im also shorting at current levels (0.8390-0.8440) but can't recommend that to anyone.

So far:

EUR/JPY is +160
GBP/JPY +100
USD/CHF + 70
GBP/USD + 80
EUR/USD +60
GOLD + $9
EUR/CHF -40
USD/JPY - 90 - maybe close this trade and wait for a better setup.

PS:
1) I don't recommend closing EUR/CHF with a loss, since it will go up as soon at EUR drops.
2) USD/JPY - Do not recommend to close witha loss, since this pair will reach 110 in the nearest future - refer to the attached PDF file.
3) You could generally trade the pair in the direction of the trend, which is SOUTH for everything, aside from USD/CHF, which is going NORTH.
4) Name of the game trading strong trend on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is short on any retracement from the dips.
5) AUD/NZD is a little bit slow, so no analysis and setups for now.

THIS THREAD IS CLOSED! Please no posts here, thank you!

New trades posted with comments in attached PDF file. Thread closed till END of next trading week. Update Part2 coming after 14/07/06.

UPDATE on posted trades:

EUR SL hit - 70
GBP SL hit - 80
EUR/JPY +80 (I got in early +110) holding
GBP/JPY +60 holding
SPOT GOLD +4 holding
EUR/CHF holding SL moved to 1.5600 TP is 1.5770 -30 now

NEW Trade (not in PDF) SHORT AUD/NZD NOW OR (1.2320) SL is 1.2380 TP1 1.2240 TP2 1.2180 TP3 is 1.2080 TP4 is 1.1860. Last up to 3 months.

Previously posted trades:

SHORT EUR/JPY NOW SL 147.80 TP (revised target1) 136.00 Can take GBP/JPY SHORT too
SHORT EUR/USD NOW SL 1.2840 TP (target1) 1.2660 1.2540 1.2400
SHORT GBP/USD NOW SL 1.8480 TP 1.8200
LONG EUR/CHF NOW SL 1.5660 TP 1.5780
SHORT SPOT GOLD NOW SL 638 TP 530

Update SUNDAY.

Have a good weekend and a profitable trading week!

[rufffen]

Cable reversals calendar for August, when there is a strong reversal, expect changed of direction (short-term) intraday.

[rufffen]

AUD/NZD: Let's SHORT this item at 2310-2320 SL 2370 TP1 2200 only taking this one if 2370 holds now.

[rufffen]

Everyone should have stop at BE on EUR and CABLE, if you get stopped out, no worries, new setups coming up SUNDAY.

8670 goes with strong candle on GBP USD we might see the skies. hehe

So be careful.

[rufffen]

OK, all stops taken out, so this zeroes in BOTH EUR/USD and GBP/USD trades, stops taken out earlier this week and stops taken out today.

It's OK though, since the time was not up and YEN charts hint in that reversal is due, but Monday. SO Id post fresh setups for Monday soon.

Meanwhile this week this thread is up +150 on EUR/CAD and +50 on the GBP/USD tue/wed, when I posted to take profits. Total this week +200.

Attached is the EURO reversal days calendar for AUGUST2006, Ill explain in a bit of detail later.

[rufffen]

First setup for next week

Pending BUY ORDER USD/CHF BUY WINDOW 2270-2290 SL2240 TP1 2480

PS: revised BUY window, since it aligns with other currencies better.

[rufffen]

Second setup for next week

Pending BUY ORDER USD/JPY BUY WINDOW 113.80-114.20 SL 113.50 TP1 116.40

Yen looks like extending losses towards a stronger resistance and bound for 114.00.

Id expect markets to turn soon but not just yet.

PS: Updated BUY WINDOW.

[rufffen]

Third setup for next week

Pending BUY ORDER CHF/JPY BUY WINDOW 92.65-92.75 SL 92.50 TP1 93.60

Most setups are YEN crosses, HOWEVER don't forget about AUD/USD and EUR/AUD pending setups

[rufffen]

Setup number four

Pending BUY ORDER EUR/AUD BUY WINDOW 6450-6490 (revised) SL 6410 TP1 6860. However, BUY WINDOWN might be revised towards 6580, wait for updates on this item and AUD/USD.

[rufffen]

Setup number five

Pending SELL ORDER AUD/USD SELL WINDOW 7700-7740 SL 7780 TP1 7200


That's about it for next week, this week Im done here guys, enjoy your weekend and lets crack it next week!

Update on majors over weekend.

[rufffen]

Setup number six

Pending SELL ORDER GBP/USD SELL WINDOW 8680-8730 SL 8770 TP1 8410

This will be updated at market close today.

[rufffen]

SETUP number seven

Pending SELL ORDER EUR/USD SELL WINDOW 2790-2820 SL 2840 TP1 2620

Update market close today.

[rufffen]

Week results update:


SP500 +42 points
EUR/CAD +110 pips
GBP/USD +48 pips

8 pending orders for next week and 1 trade still running (EUR/CAD).

Two trades on Cable and Euro were zeroed in from +340 to 0 during the week, stopped out at B/E. All trades had low risk and good reward ratio, however due to summer ranging got stopped out.

I revised my TP policies and the setups for next week have the range accounted for, so TPs should be honoured.

[rufffen]

EURO 2006
EURO AUGUST06
GBP AUGUST06


IMPORTANT NOTICE:

REVERSALS CALENDAR HOWTO:

I posted three calendars, one for the Year 2006 on Euro, August EURO and August GBP/USD. Now since I feel like contributing a little more, brief info on how to apply these days:

First and foremost look for valid topping/bottoming action on that day, if the market has been sitting on top, look to SELL, bottom, look to BUY.

However, first establish a valid swing in price action prior to this day, if there is a strong trend, reversals are less likely to happen.


GBP August calendar has scores attached to the days, normally anything over 4 gives a good probability, and 7-10 is 90% probability. Scores are allocated according to various factors (no fundumentals though), I won't go into much detail on the framework, but what I can say is that multiple techniques are used for score allocations.

Finally the EURO 2006 calendar is based on cycle fourier approximation, however it's not plain fourier, but matrix compositions, which gives a better forecasting value.

[rufffen]

Just a quick thought for the day: Sometimes you need to look beyond the obvious. Maybe that means revising your decisions and waiting for a confirmation.

There is always another perspective.

[rufffen]

Updated August EUR/USD Reversal Days Calendar, I like a little bit of matte added there.