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[rufffen]

NEW LEVELS IN THE ATTACHED TABLE!

UPDATE 12/07/06 wed, US:

GBP/USD

Good idea is to add some to NET SHORT @ 1.8400-8430 SL 8480 TP 8240, or 100 pips away. Good confidence with this one trade.
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY

Look for yen to topout 115.90-116.20, after a clean reversal Id recommend to short EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, however make sure YEN reverses SOUTH first! If EUR/JPY trades above 147.40 or actually if it breaks 147.00 Id recommend to stay out of that trade.

Current EUR/JPY resistance is 146.88, 14727 14708 are overshoot levels, anything strong above that level, please stay out!

EUR/AUD:

This item looks like it's reversing, however I can't confirm that, since I got two conflicting setups right now. FLAT NOW.

Have two fractal for SOUTH/NORTH move, now the idea is to wait for confirmation and either SHORT TOP or BUY BOTTOM, once the fractal is confirmed.


UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, US:

Considering a new trade setup:

AUD/USD

If the SHORT trade gets stopped out consider a new setup

BUY AUD/USD 7550 SL 7460 TP1 7600 TP2 7660 TP3 7710.
Once the targets are hit consider SHORTING in the window 7720-7760

EUR/AUD:
Looking for a reversal signal NORTH at 6870-6910, if that
confirms, can go LONG for 1.7380 SL 1.6840.

UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, ASIAN:

Current SELL WINDOW EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY

EUR/JPY

1st 146.30
2d 146.10
3d 145.70

TP 100-200 pips
SL 147.60 move to break even once in profit

GBP/JPY

1st 211 15
2d 210 95
3d 210 60

TP 100-200 pips
SL 211.60 move stop to break even once in profit and trail

GBP/JPY countertrend trade, be careful!

1st BUY 209.65-209.80
2d BUY 210.00-210.20
TP 211.40 SL 209.40

This trade only good for the next 4 hours, once the pairs bottoms out.
Can BUY EUR/JPY same time for 60 pips.

EUR and CABLE levels coming up shortly, updating the scorecard now.

NEW TRADE SETUP

NZD/USD

LONG 1st 0.5990 2d 0.6040 TP 0.6380 0.6540 SL 0.5900
High probability trade

AUD/USD

SHORT ST 0.7510-0.7520 SL 7560 TP 7420 this one a 100 pips trade.

GBP/USD more risky trade

SHORT 8480-8520 area SL 8560 TP 70 pips.
would rather short from higher levels, or if you
have shorts since last week, advise to hold them now.

AUD/CAD setup

This item is shifting cycles as well, to a new uptrend, however right now
will likely retrace lower.

BUY WINDOW 0.8180-0.8230 SL 0.8100 TP 0.8560 going for 360 pips here.
Im also shorting at current levels (0.8390-0.8440) but can't recommend that to anyone.

So far:

EUR/JPY is +160
GBP/JPY +100
USD/CHF + 70
GBP/USD + 80
EUR/USD +60
GOLD + $9
EUR/CHF -40
USD/JPY - 90 - maybe close this trade and wait for a better setup.

PS:
1) I don't recommend closing EUR/CHF with a loss, since it will go up as soon at EUR drops.
2) USD/JPY - Do not recommend to close witha loss, since this pair will reach 110 in the nearest future - refer to the attached PDF file.
3) You could generally trade the pair in the direction of the trend, which is SOUTH for everything, aside from USD/CHF, which is going NORTH.
4) Name of the game trading strong trend on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is short on any retracement from the dips.
5) AUD/NZD is a little bit slow, so no analysis and setups for now.

THIS THREAD IS CLOSED! Please no posts here, thank you!

New trades posted with comments in attached PDF file. Thread closed till END of next trading week. Update Part2 coming after 14/07/06.

UPDATE on posted trades:

EUR SL hit - 70
GBP SL hit - 80
EUR/JPY +80 (I got in early +110) holding
GBP/JPY +60 holding
SPOT GOLD +4 holding
EUR/CHF holding SL moved to 1.5600 TP is 1.5770 -30 now

NEW Trade (not in PDF) SHORT AUD/NZD NOW OR (1.2320) SL is 1.2380 TP1 1.2240 TP2 1.2180 TP3 is 1.2080 TP4 is 1.1860. Last up to 3 months.

Previously posted trades:

SHORT EUR/JPY NOW SL 147.80 TP (revised target1) 136.00 Can take GBP/JPY SHORT too
SHORT EUR/USD NOW SL 1.2840 TP (target1) 1.2660 1.2540 1.2400
SHORT GBP/USD NOW SL 1.8480 TP 1.8200
LONG EUR/CHF NOW SL 1.5660 TP 1.5780
SHORT SPOT GOLD NOW SL 638 TP 530

Update SUNDAY.

Have a good weekend and a profitable trading week!

[rufffen]

summary Of Pending Trades

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NEW SETUP

EUR/JPY

BUY WINDOW 145.60-145-80 SL 145.20 TP1 147.60

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EUR/JPY CYCLES MID-TERM UPDATE:

Since this item didn't quite perform as expected, I revised the original downtrend scenario. Downtrend is on the way, however TIME is not right yet.

Id expect this item to continue topping action for coming month, and the top would be 153.40-153.60 around October 2006. 10/03/06-10/31/06 looks as a valid date for the TOP. This time YEN will topout as well, but it won't reach 130 as some analysts predict it. YEN losses will be limited by 122.00 area.

From that point onwards (October), YEN will strenghten and reach 110 sometime 2007, meanwhile all the major will strengther against the USD, and USD will be a slack performer.

HOWEVER, before that happens in 07, EURO will drop to at least 12200 and Cable 17800 with YEN topping around 121.00. From that point on currencies will strenghten against USD.

IF this scenario unveils Id expect good opportunities ahead in September/November to LONG YEN and SHORT CABLE and EURO.

Basically you want to Short mid-term tops on euro and Buy pullbacks on yen.

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Possible NZD/USD mid-term setup (3-4 weeks pending)

PENDING BUY ORDER BUY WINDOW 0.5960-0.6000 TP1 06200 SL 5920

Just posting this one here so I can recap it Friday this week.

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Possible setup to buyback CAD:

USD CAD BUY WINDOW 1020-1060 SL 0980 TP1 1340.

This one item looks like it's accelerating for downside, lets see how it goes.

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USDJPY EURJPY GBPUSD USDCHF trades triggered.

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EVENT GUESSTIMATES

ECB

Will be dissapointing, I got reads with domestic strife, dissapointed with expectations, risk/gambling with emphasis on foreign affairs affected and loss of power. All in all Euro should slide on that day.

NFP

Domestic adversaries on that day in US, sudden changes with financial surprises, arogance of general public, illusions emphasised, depression and financial losses, unpredictable, challenge of authority. All in all Id say NFP data will dissapoint and this time USDX will extend losses.

Overall it's important to note that USD in on the path to a major downturn, and while I do see that FED and Central Bank interventions will keep the dollar afloat, longer-term the american currency is on the steady path to devaluation.

[rufffen]

Id advise moving stops on euro to 2865 and the cable 8800 if you got anything going,

gbpusd -80
eurusd -30
usdjpy +63
eurjpy +91
usdchf -13
chfjpy +64


So far not so good, but Id say total will be NICE when EUR reverses SOUTH, not a long time now. Stops were taken and now specs are driving prices higher, although demand on the upside is limited, and more selling pressure as we close on 2840, so the move SOUTH will accelerate more or less within next 24 hours.

[rufffen]

yen crosses trail with 20 pips stop, looks like might reverse soontime.

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CHF JPY can buyback on retraces to 9300 SL 9280 TP1 93.80

EUR JPY can buyback on retraces to 146 40 146 60 SL 146 20 TP1 147 60

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USD CAD

Look like a BUY to me BUY WINDOW 1260-1270 SL 1240 TP1 1.1420.

Elsewhere: AUDUSD got 50-70 pips to the upside before the SHORT setup is triggered.

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Positioning before ECB/BOE/NFP:

The positions got caught in the range at this stage, however since I expect negative results of ECB and further slide on EUR USD prior to NFP on Friday, Id advise to hold positions with indicated stops.

Looking for possible entries post-ECB and NFP, absolute best SELL zone on EURO is 2890-2940, and BUY ZONE is 2440-2520 if we break 2500 and 2550-2590 if the rates fails to break that area.

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PRE-ECB Update:

Nothing much exciting today, doing some ranging action, USD CAD trade was triggered, honour the stops and let's make some money tomorrow!

Now, some fellas are calling EUR USD higher at 2940, so they expect a spike up on ECB release (150 pips). Fair enough, although my fractals point that EUR USD actually should head towards 1 2500 at least and other currencies (CAD JPY CHF AUD) point the same.

Indication that EUR USD is going for 2940 is break above 2855.
Cable needs to hold 8800 for a good reversal towards 8400.

So have your stops in place, trail YEN positions and worst case you are out at breakeven.

Now if the EURO in fact does 2940 that's another good area to take shorts, however I won't take up any positions pre-NFP on friday.

[rufffen]

Hmmm ... I don't feel very confy with the price action I see across the board on all currencies.

Recommended Pre-ECB action: Take profits on Yen crosses, Yen, CHF, EUR CAD.

Close GBP USD with -30 loss. And leave the EURO trade going.

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PRE-ECB notes 2:

If you feel like a bit of risk you can try this two trades:

USD JPY LONG 115.50 TP1 116.80 SL 115.20
EUR USD SHORT 2740 SL 2820 TP1 2560

Im taking some short trades, but you need to manage your own risk profile. GBP USD LOOKS LIKE a 200 PIPS DROP TO ME.