Eur/usd- Elliot Waves & Humility.

[dkalense]

Originally Posted by dkalense

TRADE 2 (0910 CT)
Sell EURUSD @ 1.2931
SL @ 1.2954
TP @ 1.2917
I think very short term we are locked in range 1.2932 area-
1.2900 area. I am just looking for a few quick pips.
dkalense.

Well, the market proved me flat wrong on this one. My stop was taken out in this movement described by Dow-Jones Newswires:
[EUR/USD] has lifted through stops above 1.2940 and 1.2960 in quick succession amid a drop in the Usd index towards the 85.00 area - where bids are expected to be in place and counter the decent sized basket selling seen from a German bank earlier. Given the CB bid interest in Eur/Usd and a reluctance to extend Usd longs ahead of the FOMC, a squeeze was always a high possibility, but should run into good sized bid interest. Offers in the pair are in place around 1.2970 and are then said to be layered in the 1.2980-1.3000 area in greater size. Stops were is place above 1.3050 last week. CB bid interest is reported in the 1.2870-80 region.

I am presently down for the week by 12pips. Looking for the next trade. dkalense.
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[popoola]

Interesting read so far dkalense. Wish you loads of pips. I have a limit order to sell the Euro @1.2960 stop 1.2985 target 1.2925. Like the Humility in the title of your thread. These markets can be very humbling so we cant marry any view on forex. Just 'go with the flow'

[dkalense]

Thanks popoola.
I am headed next to your thread to check out the status of your limit order.
I think we are in the 5th wave of USD move against EUR. It may go lower than 1.2864 before expiring... or it may end truncated. The GDP data allowed me to grab a quick 6 pips but we are now sandwiched against Construction Spending & Chicago Purchasing... so I bailed out. The inflation data being very good in GDP report has me concerned about the status of this 5th wave.
Big Picture- we are still in a downward trend in EUR/USD... but we are just ahead of an abc correction to that trend. dkalense.
still down for the week by 5 pips.

[dkalense]

Originally Posted by dkalense

Thanks popoola.
I am headed next to your thread to check out the status of your limit order.
I think we are in the 5th wave of USD move against EUR. It may go lower than 1.2864 before expiring... or it may end truncated. The GDP data allowed me to grab a quick 6 pips but we are now sandwiched against Construction Spending & Chicago Purchasing... so I bailed out. The inflation data being very good in GDP report has me concerned about the status of this 5th wave.
Big Picture- we are still in a downward trend in EUR/USD... but we are just ahead of an abc correction to that trend. dkalense.
still down for the week by 5 pips.

10:28 CT I believe the abc EURUSD correction has begun.
I have bought EUR @ 1.3010
SL @ 1.2985
TP @ 1.3043

[dkalense]

Originally Posted by dkalense

10:28 CT I believe the abc EURUSD correction has begun.
I have bought EUR @ 1.3010
SL @ 1.2985
TP @ 1.3043

I closed my order @ 1.3032 for a profit of 22pips.
The newswires were talking of USD bid interest at 1.3030 and I bailed out.
The correction has begun; the trend has I think changed for the medium term.
This week I have a net profit of 17 pips now.
dkalense.

[dkalense]

EURUSD.
I did not trade today.
Barrier in the area of 1.3043 on the upside;
1.3000 seems solid support for now on the downside.
PCE numbers very good- not for USD though.

But the coming days will definitely (I think) see additional EUR strength.
My results since I began the Thread 28JAN07 SUN:
net
JAN EURUSD: 17pips
FEB EURUSD: 0pips

dkalense.

[popoola]

dkalense

Well done on the pips you got already. I agree with you that the euro should be heading higher. My only problem is that loads of traders think so too so the market may try to wrongfoot us. As you said if 1.3042 is broken off we go (Man I hate predicting...). I am tempted to put a buystop @1.3055 but that is too simplistic...

[dkalense]

Thanks popoola.
Here is my pivot point count on the abc corrective waves.
Re-trace from 1.2876 to 1.3366:
1.3063 = 38.2
1.3121 = 50.0
1.3179 = 61.8
1.3250 = 76.4
Of course, as you said we have to watch out for the big players who fade expected moves... etc.
The major indicators and surprises will provide the timing.
dkalense.