Eur/usd- Elliot Waves & Humility.

[dkalense]

NFP data:
bought EUR/USD @ 1.3065
SL @ 1.3025
TP @ 1.3115
(I plan to move stop up soon; & I may close early.)
More data coming shortly...
dkalense.

[dkalense]

bought EUR/USD @ 1.3065
SL @ 1.3025
TP @ 1.3115
SL taken out, but good.
-40pips.

Wow. Ha Ha, I stepped through an open trap door this morning.
I am a slow learner in relation to NFP.
Now I am looking for (at) the bottom to go long EUR again.
Maybe next week.
dkalense.

[dkalense]

Ok- I have been watching the pair closely (EURUSD) since Friday's debacle.
I have watched for the bottom- I still believe in my wave count.
I was too cowardly to enter @ 1.2915.
At this writing (1406 CT USA) The retrace from 1.2915 (to 1.3066) has paused in the area of 50%. I will go long around 1.2970 (38.2%) and jump back out just around 1.3000 to await the conquest of barriers.
dkalense.

[dkalense]

(0920 CT USA)
Buy EURUSD @ 1.3004
SL @ 1.2959
TP @ 1.3088

[dkalense]

Originally Posted by dkalense

(0920 CT USA)
Buy EURUSD @ 1.3004
SL @ 1.2959
TP @ 1.3088

Ok- I have been studying my wave count-
and I have arrived at some new conclusions.
As a result- I bailed out of this trade @ 1.3009 for +5 pips.
The following is my new thinking:
Perhaps we are at the top of the b-wave (of an abc correction).
Possibly, the next move is down- c-wave (wave 1 of the next 5 wave impulse down). This is going to be the continuation of the big USD rally of 2007.
But with all that said, this b-wave may have some steam left in it.
I am going to hold my next entry to look for more direction.
dkalense.

[popoola]

Dkalense my friend

+5 pips is better that nothing. We are all learning.

People are thinkong the euro will go to the moon.
But once again I would like to reiterate that the markets generally do the opposite of the mass action and then do the expected move. It is difficult trading when mass opinion is at an extreme

Wish you all loads of pips

[dkalense]

Thanks popoola,
I too think the EUR is headed up- but in the much longer term.
I think the second half of 2007 will see EUR in an overall uptrend.

For now, I think we are in for a continuation of 2007 USD rally.
If the five wave impulse from 1.3366 ended truncated as I think,
we are in the first wave of our next five wave impulse (wave-3 of the larger c-wave correction). However, some professional analysts are calling this next downturn in the pair the (non-truncated) wave-5 of our initial five wave impulse. We will see.

So, that said, here is my new position in EURUSD.
sell @1.2985
SL @ 1.3023
TP @1.2865

warm regards, dkalense.

[dkalense]

Originally Posted by dkalense

So, that said, here is my new position in EURUSD.
sell @1.2985
SL @ 1.3023
TP @1.2865
dkalense.

Stopped out.
I thought Trichet's question & answer session would never end.
I have not changed my previously changed view (yet).
I will watch for what might be a top, or good sign of reversal.
dkalense.