FXAnalytics

[FXAnalytics]

No analysis this evening as we head into NFP tomrrow. We'll be back on line Sunday evening when we plan on starting our trading activity for the new year.

[FXAnalytics]

Overview
As usual NFP didn't disappoint a volatility stpoint; the dollar has now gained back much of what it has lost in the last several weeks.

Currently our cyclical model is offline probably will be until risk metric levels come down a little. Both regression models are overbought but not quite as much as you'd expect given the move on Friday; some of this can be attributed to the bullish trend already being in place in the buck for the last several days. Both models would indicate some level of correction whether it's a degree of softening or a period of consolidation we should see both models center themselves possibly hit negative territory this week.

Risk Metrics
After a spike up in both the short term long term models through Thursday night we are now seeing the market cool off after Friday's move; the next couple of days should continue this trend (I can only hope as last week the Risk Metric models were useless).

Forecast
The forecast heading into Sunday night the UK open is for a slightly weaker dollar with a risk reversal seen on the horizon in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Trade Calls:
EUR/USD: Entered Long at 1.3062 SL at 1.2939
USD/JPY: Entered Short at 104.77 SL at 105.61
GBP/USD: Entered Long at 1.8706 SL at 1.8541
USD/CHF: Entered Short at 1.1842 SL at 1.1966

[FXAnalytics]

Overview
The dollar saw some softening in the earlier session has now retreated back into the upper VASR b. The cyclical model still remains awol as we head into the US session. The RM1 model had dipped into negative territory while RM2 is neutral; this leaves us open for mixed price action in the US session but continues to favor a bearish attitude.


Risk Metrics
Both the primary secondary risk models point to a fly calm market through the US Session. The primary model continues to decline the probability of a strong breakout is falling.


Forecast
Subscribers only - except Sunday Night

Trade Calls
Subscribers only - except Sunday Night

For more information on our analysis trade calls please visit our site; www.fxan.com

[FXAnalytics]

I was originally going to do this in a different thread but it makes just as much sense to do it here. The results will allow viewers to see how we've hanlded the trade calls in a live environment. Results should be considered hypothetical audited results in our prop account may differ.

Typically we'll just do the most recent month but this time I'll add the last couple to get things kicked off.


November 04
December 04
January 05

Risk Metrics
The primary risk model continues to drop but the rate of decent seems to be slowing; we might see a quick spike in the secondary later tonight (currently the secondary is in negative territory). If we do get a secondary spike it increases the chances of a stronger move or whip in the upcoming UK or US session's. These moves are often associate with failed breaks have limited follow through.

[FXAnalytics]

Risk Metrics

The primary risk model definitely slowed right down to a reversal. We are now seeing risk tolerance in the market begin to make a run back up. These moves often don't make a complete swing back to the top of the channel typically forecast moderate volatility in the upcoming sessions. A break existing price ranges is increasing but the movement in the next 24 hours will not be as clean as it would if the Primary model were at +100. Price action could resemble more of a push than a break.

[FXAnalytics]

Trade Recap
I'm kicking myself a little for moving our stops to break even in yesterday's trade; the revesal in the pound closed the trade out then it reversed again... the subsequent unrealized gains would have funded the losses I suffered to day in the Yen which chose the path somewhat less traveled. As it was the loss today in the Yen was muted by softer bullish movement in the other ps. Risk Reward; if you reduce risk you also reduce the the possiblility of reward; it a miserable cycle its a lifetime battle finding the right balance. We'll be posting tomorrow's volatility forecast later "in this here post" a little bit later...

Januar 05

Vol Forecast
Coming soon... (just want to let the market settle in a bit before I run the analysis

[FXAnalytics]

PFI has led a very large account today it changes our financial needs a great deal. We will no longer be requiring subscribers to open their accounts up at FXCM. now on I'll be posting the analysis as I'm able in its entirety here in the thread. I appreciate those who have supported us partnered with us through this difficult past year. Thanks.

John E Putman II CTA
Putman Financial Inc

[FXAnalytics]

Overview
The dollar finally strengthened a little bit today about half an hour after I closed my trades... The cyclical model has come off line the strong bullish signal still remains basically unfulfilled. We continue to track the second VASR b in the upper range.

Both Regression models remain mixed are nearly in neutral territory; this setup is seen quite often before a strong unpredictable ( a model perspective) move. We do see slightly bullish cycle building in the trend with a reversal off the bottom of the recent bear move.

Risk Metrics
The primary risk model is +100 but has slowed its accent begun to turn slightly; this might be the cap for this cycle. Its high enough to warrant extra caution in the trade model. Volatility tomorrow should spike but levels shouldn't match that of NFP... At these levels a strong whip also can't be ruled out.

Forecast
The forecast heading into the UK session is for continued strength in the dollar. A risk for reversal in on the horizon given the volatility forecast in the risk model it could come at any point. I'm sitting out the UK session will reevaluate at the front of the US session.

Trade Calls:
EUR/USD: no trade
USD/JPY: no trade
GBP/USD: no trade
USD/CHF: no trade