G-unit pimpin on forex

[ecology10]

i was stopped out at 1 pip profit after a 35+ move. which i should have taken considering the fact my first position this month was -92. But i think the market is alot choppy right now. Because of all USD. today feds increased the interest rate to 5.25% with lil hawkish remarks. leaving big doubt about future hikes. last time in april the price jumped in apr from 1.24 to 1.29 (last time this happenned ... (dailyfx).
Understandbly with mixed data of japan the usd/jpy dropped. creating a jpy buying trend (esp with speculation of china revaluating their currency) i think jpy should see some bulls.
implying gbp/jpy bears..
so lets see how the usd turns out in the comming months.

[ecology10]

gbp/jpy avg. short @210.50
s/l 211.00
t1 210.00
t2 209.70

[ecology10]

position closed +50pips
did not catch the move up. for now no new trades
total account performance ... SKGFS -92 + 1 + 50 = -41

[ecology10]

S.K.G.Financial.Securties

News Reflection

Yesterday, dollar saw weakness post FOMC meeting. Euro/Dollar
gained +270 pip move from 1.2520 June 29, 2006 (14:00 CST) to
1.2790 close today June 30, 2006 (16:00 CST). USD/JPY lost
more than 200 pips as USD bears kicked in, in-turn people started
buying 'JPY'. Good reason to buy JPY was also the chinesse
revaluation of its currency which carries a huge trading relation
with Japan.
Hence the Yen saw some strength as GBP/JPY lowered from
211.90 June 29, 2006 (02:00 AM) to 209.90 June 29, 2006 (03:00PM) {-200 pip}.
Gained to 210.90 Jun 30, 2006 (12:00 AM) and started falling as europe opened and asia closed after seeing YEN strength after
US FOMC meeting. Europe as predicted in my trade lowered the price of GBP/JPY to 209.90 June 30, 2006 (3:00 AM). After some choppy movement (on avg. up) the pair rallied up due to strong GBP data that came out.

GDP q/q (UK): Prev. 0.6% Forecast. 0.6% Actual.0.7%
Current Account (UK): Prev. -11.0B Forecast. -10.5B Actual. -8.3B

Raised the pair to 211.80 June 30, 2006 (11:00 AM CST) and closed at 211.46.

Check out SKGFS for more information.

[ecology10]

BOE and ECB both increased interest rates this month to 4.75% and 3% repectively. With the FED's leaving the interest rate at previous levels of 5.25%. It comes down to the YEN, what is the outlook of the japanese economy. Today the BOJ will conclude its 2 day meeting, with leaving the interest rate at previous level of 0.25% according to the market sentiment, which has been priced in already. Recent data of GDP Q2 was down to 0.8% from 3.1% previously. However the market expected a stronger figure of 1.8%. But it seem it was not enough for the yen bears to kick in. However the crosses against yen did gain like GBP/JPY from 218.03 to 218.60.
Wide speculation of big banks waiting for rallies to sell all the jpy crosses. Adding to JPY strength (AFX NEWS).
And also with new comming in about the chinnes YUAN devalution adding to the strength of YEN due to close trading relations between China and Japan.

One has to wait and see how the market reacts to the BOJ Policy report which will matter the most with widely accepted concensus that BOJ will not raise interest rates, but what is the future of rate hikes this year if any?

I think with EUR set to increase interest rate once if not twice this year has already been priced in EUR/JPY (touching highs since 1999 of 147.45)

Yen monetary policy report should be closely watched for the outcome of a lot of yen denominated crosses.

My bais is towards jpy bearishness in short-term and bullishness in long term

[ecology10]

Buttonwood
Against gloom
Aug 8^th 2006 | TOKYO
From The Economist Global Agenda

Japan is not as badly off as visiting moneymen may think

Bullet Points

• Quite a few such people have been populating the lobbies of Tokyo’s lusher hotels this summer.
• Pace of economic growth has probably slowed sharply from its rate of more than 3% earlier this year, to 0.8% this quarter in annualized pace. (Half of what was expected)
• According to economist the slowdown is attributed to shrinking growth in export, de-stocking of inventories and cuts in public spending. Japan’s economic fundamentals, they argue, are weakening, notably in business investment, the area that has until now generated the most excitement about Japan’s recovery.
• According to AFX News Net Exports subtracted 0.1% from the GDP, after being neutral in the previous 3 months (Jan – Mar).
• Slowdown in the US economy has heavily weighed on the automakers in Japan and with drop in machine tool orders from 11% to 1.5% with the forecast of 5%, way below the market expectations.
• According to Robert Feldman, Chief economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo, points out that growth in capital expenditure hit a peak in the first quarter of 2005 and “has zigzagged downward since”, yoy growth of 6.6%, anything below 1.6% qoq can weigh on the yen.
• The outlook of capital expenditure is bright, as reflected in the Bank of Japan’s latest Tankan survey of business conditions, published last month. It shows growing optimism among companies, particularly large ones, which plan to boost capital expenditure by 12% in the fiscal year that began in April.
• Even Non Manufacturing companies feel confident enough now to invest.
• Domestic demand increased 0.3% this quarter compared to 0.7% previously.
• Public sector demand dropped 1.1%
• Domestic Demand deflator increased 0.1% since Jan-Mar in 1998, Previous 3 months were flat. Ending Deflation in JAPAN?
• Growth in private demand eased to 0.7% from 0.9%
• Residential Investment dropped -2.7% from previous +0.7% (3 months).
• Corporate fixed asset investment and private consumption maintained healthy growth.
• Non-Residential Investment (virtually Corportate Investment) Increased 3.8% this quarter compared to 3.3% previously.
• Investment in construction, electronics/telecom and plant engineering expanded – Gotoh
• Private consumption (55% of GDP) grew 0.5% this quarter (APR-JUL 06) compared to last quarter of 0.2%.
• Weak Headline GDP figure but strong Consumer spending the capital spending.
• Recovery gains are disproportionately distributed among both the businesses and the working population. Large Manufacturers Profit per worker has jumped 3 folds since 2001. Whereas small manufacturers figure barely moved, same applied for non-manufacturing firms. Yet small firms account for 4/5^th of all employment.
• Mr. Koizumi retires from front-line politics in September?
• His probable successor, Shinzo Abe, lacks Mr. Koizumi’s assured stride.
• Consumptions is patchy, however the job outlook is bright. Work figures are stagnant since mid – 2003 despite fall in working-age-population. Unemployment is falling and wages are rising.
• American Hedge-funds have threatened to pull out of Japan entirely. In a recent Financial Times, the suggestion was made that 10-15m borrowers (60-95% of total) might be driven into the arms of loan sharks; slump in consumption might cause GDP to fall, by a full percent point or ¥5.5 Trillion.
• Foreigners piled into the industry because of juicy returns unimaginable in more competitive markets at home. This year the shares in consumer-finance companies have fallen by half, helped by a Supreme Court ruling making a reduction in the cap all but inevitable. Will this cause a credit crunch? Hardly. Research shows that those who borrow at extortionate rates do so to pay back other debt, ie, the loans are for survival (often of small businesses) not for consumption. For these troubled borrowers, bankruptcy has long beckoned. Less distressed folk may even boost consumption if they are able to borrow at lower rates.
• Besides, figures this week showed buoyant growth in bank lending, especially to small firms. The recovery in net lending (lending after provisions for bad debts), which is growing at nearly 3% a year, is striking given that loans were still shrinking a year ago. With banks once again carrying out their traditional function of supplying credit to the economy, a last missing piece in the recovery has been filled in. Japan's economy can probably just about manage without the odd American hedge fund.

By SANDEEP GARG<
Sources Economist.com, AFX News

My suggestion is to sell JPY in short-term, but if there is a hawkish tone in the BOJ statement then the sell position will be cancelled.





This is mere speculation and cannot assert any guarantees, hence I or anyone associated with this post cannot be held liable for any losses or damages.

[ecology10]

as predicted,the gbp/jpy gained due to jpy weakness.
GBP/JPY at 120+ pip profit. First T1
holding to less than half of position for extra gains

[ecology10]

so the total account stands at
-92 + 1 + 50 = -41 + 120 = 79

If any one saw my posting about the yen weakness yesterday please post some comments on wht do u think and if I should continue to post or am just wasting my time and space on this forum ...
And any specifications as to what would any reader want from say exact entry to time specification to risk ratios etc ....
please its a forum, discuss to help me and you to trade better and learn from our mistakes and successes

thank you