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12-01-03, 10:05 AM
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| Monthly Thread: December, 03 Hello everyone, I think we are going to see further USD weakness soon. I am holding 2 short positions on USD, and may add some more - maybe today. Sentiment is pretty obvious on the market, and that is not so often when we have a definate movement. We should all try to benefit from this situation. Entries are very important as always, so lets try to catch some good moved out there. I will be addig most probably short on USDCHF (both for longer term position and 60 pip profit) and maybe long on EURO for 50 pips. I am holding long on Euro, so there will be only short term 50 pips trade on that one if at all. I would like to say for all those interested, that performance page for November was updated both on Moneytec post and on the website; You are welcome to browse. I will post once/if I enter any trade. I want to wish for you all, this day, week, month and Year to be very profitable  Regards, Rezo |
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12-01-03, 01:39 PM
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| Little commentary on what happened. Euro retraced as low as 1.1935, swissy as high as 1.3015, cable steady around 1.7200; Currently euro = 1.1970, swissy @1.2980... Retracement - not bad for a further move. Euro didnt hold above 1.20? Bad sign? I still think it is has potential to go much above 1.20, but of course time will show. We have crossed 1.20 point up and down multiple times on friday and today, which shows that 1.20 is not a key level anymore. At least it is not a phsycological level - it lost most of its phsycological value after it is being crossed up and down so many times. But it is still a level, noone can argue with that. I am still looking to long Swissy (sell USDCHF). Will post once/if I enter. Here is a channel on EURO - 240 min is more important, but 60 min channel bottom was broken (red line), triggering the dive to 1.1935. Good Luck! Last edited by rezo_s; 12-01-03 at 01:49 PM.           |
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12-02-03, 10:36 AM
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| Well, while I was saving an image to show you that line was broken which should trigger further move south on USDCHF, short term trade almost hit its target of 60 pips. Still holding the longer term short @1.6965, moved stop to breakeven now on that one. |
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12-02-03, 10:52 AM
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| And here we go. Target hit, +60 pips. Longer term trade also looks promising with euro hitting new highs. Anywyas, stop is at entry point now. GL, |
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12-02-03, 11:54 AM
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| hello rezo, great trade & view as always, what do you think if i say 1.2000 - 1.2500 as new quadrant for eurusd in coming weeks regards, eka sutikna |
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12-02-03, 11:57 AM
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| Rezo, Good stuff! I caught the upmove in the EURUSD myself.. 80 pips and counting! Question for you: Rather than closing your short term trade at your profit target (eg. +60 pips) why don't you just bring your stop to that level, and then let the market run with a trailing stop of 20pips or tighter at 10 pips, say? In the case of this usdchf trade, this would've given you much more profits than 60pips, actually double probably since low of usdchf current move was around 1.2850. Of course, it needs more "maintenance", but you are in front of the computer anyways... Food for thought. Keep up the good work! 4xtradercy Last edited by 4xtraderCY; 12-02-03 at 12:01 PM. |
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12-02-03, 12:50 PM
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| Hello Loukas, Good to see you Eka! Loukas, Well, no - these trades are only for shorter term trading and set targets 40:50 (and 40:60 swissy). I am holding longer term on swissy as well - I posted it togather with the short term trade reco, so I am in the profits for stronger move also. These shorter term trades are ment to benefit form situation where longer term trades cannot. Many times it may hit target of 50-60 pips, go several pips higher and then reverse. It is a good idea, but its not that easy to do. In your case, I cannot set a t/p order, and sometimes (mostly) market moves quickly. Discipline will be harmed in this case, and it is very dangerous to do so. Plus emotions may come alone when it hits target and go up and down several times. It may happen that it hits a target, and is 10 pips above the target - I will say " ok, lets move stop to target level, and leave it the way it is", but before I do so, it may be already below the initial target - then I wonder - should I wait, close or not? And then, if I move stop to target once price crosses it - the question is when should I do that? after it goes 5, 10, 20? pips more than initial target? It may never reach 10-20 pips, and in that case I will close below target. I prefer working with orders when it comes to closing position - especially on short term trades - it is dangerous enough; both stops and targets. And then, I would have to do all that on 2 platforms, bcos I have funds under managment both at Commerce bank and Refco... I dont think it will be more than harming my nerves. I have longer term trades running togather with shorter term once, so why should I become so greedy - I dont think anyone can last much that way; at least not me. If it was the only style of trading, trading on one platform - trailing I mean, then ok, but not in my case. Anyways, thank you for the Idea - I am always open to new ideas/suggestions - there's always something (many things) we dont know/dont think of/dont even suspect - ideas!, so thanks mate! Eka - look at the chart: here's what I think: there are good indications this move to keep running, especially now, when we broke at a very critical moment. We can see that trend angle 2) is bigger than it was on the previous one 1) - good sign for bulls; And another point (3) ) - we broke upside, not quiet a well formed pattern, but it is still indication of a break, which it no doubt is. In case we hold the break and dont get back below that line which as we see is standing exactly at 1.20 !! area, I think it is a sign of further appriciation. Good Trading Everybody, Rezo |
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12-02-03, 02:35 PM
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| Rezo, I understand where you are coming from. In the end, it seems, staying disciplined and objective is more important than catching those extra pips. Nonetheless, on a trade like today's USDCHF, I couldn't help but feel like you were leaving something on the table. Oh well... As for angles, even though I agree EURUSD is still bullish, a very steep angle is not always the best thing. Too steep an angle might also mean exhaustion, especially after a parabolic move. Of course, this is not the case (yet) for EUR, which has consolidated quite enough around 1.20 to have fuel for the next leg up. Cheers Last edited by 4xtraderCY; 12-02-03 at 02:48 PM. |
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12-03-03, 05:40 AM
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| Here's the Swissy. Break of the supp line (blue one ) resulted in move down. If we as well break the red line which is around 1.2850, then I think we may see the acceleration of the move down. Even though, it is potentialy a good support. Will see. Good Trading, |
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