Monthly Thread: November 2003

[rezo_s]

Good Morning Sergio, eternalfuture, everyone!

Sergio, buying may be a good intraday trade, but I cannot tell - I dont trade it that way. For me, each push upside will be opportunity to sell.

Andre, I should agree about the longer term target if confirmed - I am also looking at 1.11 - 1.12.

1.1530/50 may provide support, but as you said, I already mentioned that those levels may not be as strong anymore.

Good Luck everyone,

Rezo

[BadRuski]

Originally posted by rezo_s
History is a very good - may be the best indicator of all...

"History matters. Somehow this common sense has bypassed much of modern economics, especially in universities. The continued preoccupation with elegant models and mathematical proofs is intellectually narrowing, because it excludes almost anything that cannot be reduced to an equation or data set."
- Robert J. Samuelson in his Newsweek column of July 28, 2003

[rezo_s]

Very Nice thank you B.Ruski

Well, nothing much to update on market. Mainly consolidation rught now, but will post some till the end of a day - in caouple hours. Am probably going to take some long positions on US$. USD/Canadian looks very good...

[rezo_s]

Ok, looks like my day is over early today. Missed the strong move. Told you the 1.1550 wouldnt be as strong resistance anymore.
Will be entering later this week if consolodation followes.

See you all tomorrow,

Rezo

[yup777]

Yes, very much agree on USD/CAD bullish stance while I probably have missed most of the late rally on this pair. The downtrend seems to be halted and at late US Monday trading /early Asian Tuesday trading, the pair boost up quietly from 1.3320 to 1.3380, make buying strategy a little bit more difficult but I will look for a buy entry a buy entry again too.

For Euro, yes, 1.1550 is no longer a good support, but probably now serving a good resistance

Goodluck rezo~

Yup777

[eternalfuture]

Rezo and all,

Well, as expected, not much fight given by 1.1545-1.1550 yesterday.

Today, I don't think it won't be much of a different story than yesterday.

Downward pressure still there, but near-term bounce still likely. I don't think it will bounce far, though. On a daily closing basis, 1.1440 provide temporary support for now, although it was pierced on the hourly chart yesterday.

There is 'window' support at 1.1382, which would also offer some support for euro.

Rezo, maybe the recent double top at 1.1860 & 1.1857 isn't the similar pattern like the one that we have at 1.1932/1.1931. Maybe this current drop is equivalent to the move 'BETWEEN' the 1.1932 & 1.1931 tops.

If you look at the chart, after the top at 1.1932, euro was down to 1.1625. And before that 1.1932, there was also a 'window' at 1.1589 (16th May 2003).

What I'm trying to say is that current fall was equivalent to the move between 1.1932 and 1.1625 rather than 1.1931 to 1.1110 (16th July 2003).

If this is the case, then a move back to 1.1800 plus is still very possible, but it would be important that the 1.1382 window still intact to be there again.

Should the euro close at least twice below 1.1382 on daily closing basis, then the euro may have a hard time visiting 1.1800 again; instead, it would crash as low as 1.1020 (as I have pointed out earlier).

Sorry for long post. I would've loved to attach the chart, but got a problem with the PC.

Thanks, and good luck!

[rezo_s]

Hi Andre, Yup777,

Yup777, I am still looking to long the usdcad pair - will see how soon may this happen.

E.Future, I will attach the chart for you my friend. But I have to dissagree. If we look at the chart, you are suggestinh we are at similar pattern as marked with 1 and 2 on chart. But take a look at the red lined - and we see we are not exactly in that 1, 2 points anymore, but more likely moving lower.
Another thing to pay attention to is that the low was exactly the 61 point. This may trigger attempt to retest the 1.18 for a break upside, but unfortunatly technical picture doesnt support that scenario. At least not yet. Things may change, but for now this is the situation.
Current situation is very much similar with the previous push to 1.19. Same situation with the gaps... I remember this gap at 1.1380 - 1.1440 area (market with cycles on chart). I was holding a long position over the weekend at that moment from 1.1173 with tp order at 1.1405, and even though first ticks were around 1.1440, I was closed at my order ...
Anyways, you are right about the gap area - it should be filled in order to proceed to your procpected 1.1020 area. I prefer setting tp order aomewhere around 1.11 - 1.12 - the 38 fibo area... to tell the exact level : 1.1185 that is where I will set up my t.p once/if I enter short...


Ok, good Luck everyone, will update a bit later.

[rezo_s]

forogt the chart