Monthly Thread: November 2003

[rezo_s]

h&s pattern on USDJPY 60 min

[MattH]

Question then is - Can the Yen drag the others with it???

Euro has some room (30-40pips)
Cable also has 30+ pips of potential room however we all know Cable does its own thing
Swiss - mmm tricky one today - taken some sleeping pills me thinks - should drop as there is no underlying strength so we may be in for a demonstration of falling cards here

Day after the collapse is always an interesting one if a little challenging

Cheers Matt

[Hexp2]

Hey Rezo and fellow traders,

USD/JPY looks like a possible short after a retest of 110.00.

JPY broke through that level today like cheddar and looking at the short term charts (i.e. 5 min chart) it seems that there is room for a retracement to 110 before signals for a good short occurs.

What do you guys think?

I'll be looking for an entry to short around there!

Good Trades!

[rezo_s]

Hi Matt,

I dont know what to tell you. Falling cards...? maybe - everything is possible, but that is what we are trying to do here - trade something having (in our opinion) most chances to happen.
For now I still think we can see USD strentherning, and I am looking to trade for it. If we are going back to where we were lately, I dont think it will happen this week. 50-70 pips is usual to happen as intraday retracement/correction...if we get more, it may signal the opposite way. Will see.

Hexp2 - good to see you are stil around.

I dont trade intraday, so I canot tell you. + I dont look at 5 min charts at all, so I cannot tell you my thoughts on that one, except for what I see on longer term charts. I think move to 109 is very possible, and shorting from 110 is the best classical thing to do - short when is gets back to the neck line. Very nice model, but its an intraday model. On the longer term I see it is little mixed, but still looking towards +112 level as an initial target (the gap area) before we MAY reverse back down. On the other hand, USDYEN may be held low due to sellings on EURJPY and GBPJPY... cant tell, its a little mixed, so I prefer not trading it at the moment. Maybe later... Will you make a call for it if you enter? anyways, good lick with it,

Rezo

[Hexp2]

Hey,

Currently im long USD/JPY looking for retracement to 110 or + if achievable.

Probable trade for USD/JPY will come this upcoming week...we will wait and see together!

Take care and good trades!

[rezo_s]

Good Luck Hexp2!

[eternalfuture]

Rezo,

What I posted lately was just an alternate view.

Previously, I had just one view. Now, after studying it further, I see a possible alternative here.

As long as the gap at 1.1382 is not filled, I'd stick to my latest view (the alternative).

However, if 1.1382 is reached at anytime, I'd give up my alternate view and back to my previous view.

Like they said: It ain't over till it's over.

Nice H & S in usd/jpy.

Might extend to 109.00

Japanese yen, I think, is capable to drag other currencies, which in turn gives impact to other major pairs. Recent yen strength dragged euro, gbp, and chf down.

Looks like we have a moment of consolidation yesterday. Perhaps we may test yesterday's high again. But overall the pressure is still on euro to break lower.

We'll see that later.

Good luck, everyone.

Thanks for the chart, Rezo.

[yup777]

I like to group currencies, here are my grouping:

Group 1: EUR, CHF (weakest in near term esp. CHF)
Group 2: GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD (turn out to remain strong under high-yield background and GBP, AUD continue to have rate hike)
Group 3: USD, JPY (I trade them higher)

At the above grouping, USDJPY heading south will not drag EUR or CHF on strengthing much, CHFJPY has been testing 80.00 psychological mark and EURJPY embarking toward 125.00.

However, if Euro traded down again, USDJPY should find some recoveries before another selloff in the following Japanese session..

Just my 2cp

Yup777