Monthly Thread: November 2003

[BadRuski]

Hello,

I think there won’t be many changes in EUR/USD ahead of key U.S. payroll data on Friday. Usually unemployment figures lag behind any recovery, so the market may eventually be very disappointed with what they see on Friday… And the pair that will suffer most in this case I think will be USD/CHF which sits kind of uncomfortable on its recent highs.

Interesting –> Daily Currency Briefing from Commerzbank:

“The USD bid tone may last a couple of days yet, but as expectations are cranked up for Friday’s numbers, the week could end just as volatile as it began.”

Regards,

B.R.

[rezo_s]

Hi Yup777, E. Future, B.R.,

B.R., the week could end just as volatile as it began - may be. Based on what we saw not only this week, but for nearly last month, this is very possible, but on the other hand, things should change, IMHO.

I am currently holding longs on USD, and am planing to add some more if there will be a retracement. I will make a call here in that case. I cannot post about open positions, because it will not be recommendation; but they will be posted in couple days on websites' main page in "Recently Executed Trades" table in case anyone is interested.

Anyways, we got little move on euro in place at the moment (ts at 1.1466), and as I said, for now any good spike up can be used to short. At least for today this is my view.

Will update later with some charts,
Good Luck Everyone!

Rezo

[Hexp2]

Hey Rezo,

I closed JPY trade @ brk.

Nothing going on this currency to the upside as of yet. Staying out of that one till better signal is given.

Good luck!

[rezo_s]

Hi Hexp2,

thanks for the GL!

[rezo_s]

Hi Everybody,

Been away from here for a while.
Here is my reco: sell GBPUSD - look at the trend line and try to short if it gets near it with 50 pips stop. I already shorted, but you may get even better level. The target is 1.6385. Very nice r:r ratio there. Early next week week we may get that target. If this trade gets stopped, it may still be a good trade to reenter later. Canadian is also looking good - I took long couple days ago and am still keeping it, but this is not a reco, just sharing; but if you are in simiolar trade or looking to enter, my initial target for USDCAD is 1.3620. Reco is to try long one of the best performing out there - USDCHF. If I get to take a good position, I will make a reco for this one.

Good Luck Everyone,

Rezo

[rezo_s]

btw, the reason for still to try to take long on USD/canadian is that we broke back the 1.3350 earlier low of this year. We broke the low doew, and now we are back in upside move above that level. So I think it is still good to buy at good entry.

[eternalfuture]

Hello Rezo and all,

Following up my posting a while ago, my second, alternative scenario's existence has been gravely threatened as yesterday euro plunged as low as 1.1387, only 5 pips away from the 'open window'.

I think, if euro/usd closed this 'window', the door towards recovery will also be shut down. At least for some period of time.

If that happens, I will surrender my alternative scenario, and re-focusing on my primary, scenario, that the euro is bound for a deep correction towards 1.1020.

However, temporarily, the pair still has yet to crash below 1.1382, meaning that the chance for a recovery is not gone yet.

Good luck to you all.

[rezo_s]

Good Morning Everybody!

Well, told you - cable is on the move. Not bad.

E.Future - you are right: the gap area is a support at the moment - a very strong support. We are on that suppost now.
Once we break the 1.14. the gap area will be filled. However, as you said, untill we trade above, we still have chance for recovery.

Good Trading !

Rezo