Monthly Thread: November 2003

[rezo_s]

ok, now I have to take back what I said about the USDCAD, bcose we suddenly fell below 1.3350... this is a surprising move. Yes there was a double top on 240 mins...

[powerhungry]

rezo_s,

What is your total percentage gain for the year to date.

[eternalfuture]

Rezo & All,

Finally, the gap was filled. Signalling further downward thrust in days ahead.

Despite current bounce, it probably merely a temporary bounce. A dead cat bounce. It is currently capped around 1.1530-1.1545 previous support zone.

As I have mentioned in previous postings, as soon the gap area is filled, the bearish tone will become more and more intense. Leaving rallies as mere short opportunities.

My eyes now set at 1.1020 target.

Good luck to you all!

[ShadeFx]

Originally posted by powerhungry
rezo_s,

What is your total percentage gain for the year to date.

63.28% as per his website

[powerhungry]

Ok, I was just wondering, because there are some people on this board claming 50% a week.

[rezo_s]

Sunday, November 09, 2003

Hi Everyone,

EURUSD:
I don't think there is something to worry about because of the Friday push back higher above 1.15. Market was vary oversold and needed this correction very much. This is very healthy for further move down, and therefore for now I am still on the sell side. This view may change if the upside move resumes, but for now this is a Friday position closing result.

USDJPY:
Flat for now.

GBPUSD:
Same here: flat as of week closing. Will need to see how things go in order to decide.


USDCHF:
We bounced back for 1.3780 area - the 61 retracement from the recent move down, but just as on euro, it doesn't look like anything more than a result of position closing after a very overbought situation. Long position still considered here in the beginning of market opening. Unless we see continuing USD weakening of course.

EURGBP : I think this week may be a good time to reenter the shorts form couple weeks ago. We saw a retracement up to 6900 level and a good bounce back. Will be looking to short with same initial target as back then : 6770


EURJPY:
Long time am waiting for a break here. In my opinion it will be break south. I will be entering on a break of this current serious support we are now at. There is never a definite level, and that is why we talk about areas, but this time this is a wide area. Its starting at spike to 125.00 and ending with current 126.00 level. I am going to put a sell order at 124.80 with 60 pip stop and initial target of 121.50.


AUDUSD:
Flat for now.


USDCAD:
Bearish candle on weekly charts, but little mixed picture. After correction, move north may resume. For now I am flat.

This is it for comments,


E.Future - looks like we thing alike. This is just a friday move - inability to move and close below the gap resulted in start of position closing. Ths is a regular chain reaction of position closing as far a s I see. But we never know for sure untill it happens dont we?

ShadeFx, thank you for answering to Powerhungry. As for those who make 50% a week, all I can say is good for them and for those who invest with them

I wish you all to have a great trading week,
Kindest Regards,
Rezo Shmertz

[eternalfuture]

Rezo and all,

Right now, we may be looking at a correction of the downmove from 1.1860 to 1.1375.

I believe we are in a corrective phase, there's no fundamental justification behind euro rally on Friday. There's only one reason in my mind: short-covering.

It could retrace a bit higher from now, since the daily RSI made a failure swing, pointing more space on the upside.

We'll see how the euro bulls committed to this upmove by looking at the first hurdle at 1.1545-1.1560 (38.2% retracement of 1.1860-1.1375).

Let's see how the first half of the week progresses.

Cheers!

Rezo, hope you don't mind me using your thread for throwing out my ideas.

[rezo_s]

Good Morning Everyone,

Just bought on current market: USDCHF@1.3643