Monthly Thread: November 2003

[Bor]

Hi Rezo,

Again stopped.... thats part of trading.
I try to understand your vision of a northbound USD/CHF. If I look at the charts I see that USD/CHF now has fallen out of a rising channel: so we must assume a falling channel for the time being. (?)
Standard indicators like stochastics and RSI are low, MACD is getting negative, so there may be a turn ahead. But not very quick. I'd say we will go down for a while.
Interestingly Iris is aiming, just like you, for a stronger $. But the EUR/USD picture is about the same as the USD/CHF (but reversed).
Can you explain?

Thanks,
Bor

[rezo_s]

Hello bor, everybody.

Sorry for the late responce, but I was all morning and afternoon till now working with charts. Both recos I made here were stopped as you can see. Yes, losses are part of trading, but lately there is something wrong with my trades. Maybe its just a raw of bad trades, and maybe it is not just that. I was checking that out, but there is no definate sign of my mistakes. That is my style, and I cannot change my approach because of it now. Actually, after looking at euro daily chart it may be clearly seen that we are almost in day by day (with litle exceptions) copy of move from 1.19 -1.08.
As for Swissy: I never have a longer than my target vision whether $ or any other currency will be stronger or weaker. Bcos I make my decidions based on technical picture, which changes with time. So at the moment, if we will not retrace back, my view will change and I will be selling. We bounced back from little lower 61% retracements area on euro and 38% on swissy (euro 1.07 low to 1.18 high and swissy 1.42 high - 1.30 low), so this may be a reversal for retest of recent levels. I am laways trying to be flexible in market conditions, but recently the bullish $ sentiment was still in place, and still is not gone.
On euro we are @ 1.1605 now after being as high as 1 1620. In order for me to keep bearish view, we need to close below 1.1550, i.e. 1.1620 should cause a strong resistance and hold. In case we dont close abovo, I will be standing aside for a day-two, maybe more. . .
I think there is also an intervention to be taken in account, which is mixing the market and the technical picture.

Regards,

Rezo

[Bor]

Hi Rezo,

Thanks for your explanation! Very clarifying.
I thought interventions only showed with the Yen.

Regards,


Bor

if no one make mistakes, no one can earn......

[eternalfuture]

Rezo & all,

The latest developments on euro/usd has been confusing me. Regarding my 2 scenarios, my secondary view was ruled out as the gap has been filled. Thus, euro should bound southwards after correcting the fall.

However, my primary view, set 1.1546 as the max correction possible. Beyond that, the validity of my view would be subject to question.

Under current situation, where euro still at 1.1640s, with yesterday's closing at 1.1636, it would be hard to justify my view anymore.

As for Rezo's view and the latest chart,

We are approaching 1.1700, which makes the similarity of two double tops becomes more and more blurred.

Let's see how things go in the next sessions.

Right now, support comes at 1.1550 while resistances at 1.1670 and 1.1715. 1.1745 will cap the eur/usd for today.

Cheers!

[Jam]

Hey Rezo,
Maybe you should take some profits even when your target is not hit. Like the other day, I think you were up about 40 pips before giving it all back when the trend reversed. Just a suggestion...a few pips a day do add up eventually.

[Eriksson]

It seems like the war is over this time for the USD.. We will soon see new highs for the Eur/Usd. Prior limits will be broken.. 1.2xx will be reality soon.

The Eur/USD will not go down unless we see strong downmove of CAD-AUD-NZD and/or JPY.

best,
E.

[Eriksson]

.

[rezo_s]

Hi Everyone,

Took some time off, as one has always keep in shape, and once you feel things are going bad, no matter experience, nerves and health, it is essential to take some time off to rehabilitate. One and two losses are not a problem - losses are part of routine in this business, but once things go really bad, it is necessary to stay even stronger, bcos to keep trading in such situation is the worst thing. Yesterday and today I was off watching the market - only kept myself updated couple times. Either way I needed to see how this move is going, and view has defiantly changed now. I think now we are going to see more USD weakening. Technically it is also well supported, and I think euro is looking towards +1.19, cable looks even better to retest the 1.7050...
I think it is still good time to go selling dollars, and maybe tomorrow being Friday may give chance to take positions.
For euro, 1.1645 looks a good level to go long. Lets hope there will be some profit taking to allow taking long positions.
I will make a reco on euro once/if I enter.
See you all tomorrow,

Good Trades and Best Regards,

Rezo Shmertz.