New here, hi

[yup777]

Well, after meeting target on GBPCHF at 2.2400, the overall trades yesterday was not too bad. Here are the summaries:

EURUSD: +15
USDJPY: -30
AUDUSD: -15
NZDUSD: -10
GBPCHF: +245

Positions: All closed

Today Outlook and Strategies:
EURUSD has been just short of a few pips to 1.1400, while liquidation sale starts before Asian session starts, market was disappointed on EUR rebound which could not meet an initial target and pre-assumed a slower US economy recovery, which then conclude the worry about earning warnings is premature...

DOW drags down more than 120 points to 9036 after slight breach of 9000 mark. However, this downward movement was treated as a bull market correction, we expect to see the resumption on DOW's gain (or Euro weakness) tonight or early next week.

AUD, NZD & CAD landed on a new low earlier yesterday morning but rebound looks strong. The market seems segmented as they prefer dumping those currencies at the time of consolidation phase of EUR & CHF after new low made, therefore, I assume consolidation on AUD, NZD and CAD will still go 1 or 2 more days and will build up shorts again once new low on EURUSD was seen.

GBPUSD does drag down 150 pips after announcement of 25bp rate cut, however, some of the speculators have already bet this and late rebound from 1.6217 is very convincing, although medium term is still weak in tone, GBP will still show strength on crosses against EUR and CHF.

USDJPY kicks up from 117.38 again but initial resistance of 118.10 still cap the pair in range trading. Despite the correction on Nikki this morning of more than 250 points, USD rebound on JPY look much less aggressive compared with EUR and CHF, we may expect a small breach of 118.10 to extend present rebound to 118.50 but renew selling will initiate there...

After EURUSD turns south from 1.1935 on June 16, the pair used to close at week low on Fridays, this increases the risk that EURUSD may retest 1.1260 or even blow this level out to reach 1.1210/1.1175, however, with a little worry about US recovery and consolidation continues in DOW, this move below 1.1260 today is 50-50.

Based on above, the relative strength today should be:
USD>GBP>JPY>AUD>NZD>CAD>EUR>CHF

Suggested trades:
1) Sell EURUSD at 1.1345, SL-1.1370, TP-1.1280 or
Sell EURUSD on break of 1.1305, SL-1.1340, TP - open
2) Sell USDJPY at 118.35, SL - 118.65, TP-117.65
3) Buy GBPUSD at 1.6330, SL - 1.6300, TP- 1.6385
4) Buy GBPCHF at 2.2330, SL- 2.2250, TP - 2.2500

We are waiting for another opportunity to re-sell AUD, NZD & CAD, these currencies will take longer period on initial consolidation from the sharp fall, under US recovery, capital flow will trigger another massive selling. Watch the levels on AUD 0.6635, NZD 0.5940, CAD 1.3700, these are ideal levels for short positions on medium-term...

Result: +255 pips

Goodluck ~

[rezo_s]

Hi again, yup777.
Great commentary. Thank you very much on that.
Agree with you on all issues, except for cable trade - long there? It rather looks like a good sell. Maybe even in coming sessions.
I am waiting for sell here for couple days already.
Although I agree it has potential against euro and swissy to go higher ( though not confirmed for me yet), against dollar it looks like a very nice sell.

[rezo_s]

Oh, ok, disregard it. I see you're tgting only 6385 - its a good possibility. I thought you were tgting 6485. Sorry.

Good Luck and thanx again for your great input - I wasnt expecting less from you .

[yup777]

Order opened:
GBPCHF Long 2.2330, SL-2.2250, TP-2.2500
GBPUSD Long 1.6330, SL-1.6300, TP-1.6385

Goodluck~

[yup777]

Found a mistake about y'day's result, it should be +205 pips only

[yup777]

Current positions:
GBPUSD: Long @ 1.6330, SL-1.6345 (revised), TP-1.6385 (unchanged)
GBPCHF: Long @ 2.2330, SL-2.2300 (revised), TP-2.2500 (unchanged)
EURUSD: Short @ 1.1345, SL-1.1335 (revised), TP-1.1280 (unchanged)

Goodluck~

[yup777]

GBPUSD Stop at 1.6345, profit 15pips
GBPCHF raise SL to 2.2350, TP - 2.2500
EURUSD lower SL to 1.1320, TP-1.1260 (revised)

Goodluck~

EURUSD stop hit at 1.1320 , 25pips profit

----

Since GBP is much weaker than expected, exit the GBPCHF position currently ( at 2.2385) 55 pips profit

Goodluck~