NFP prediction

[20pipsaday]

ok, I will be updating this thread once per month - lol

I wrote an algorithm which has correctly predicted NFP direction (but not size of movement) 8 out 9 times so far this year (I dont have any data that is older than 12 months so 9 months is as far back as I can go unfortuntely)

I have traded the last NFP 3 times entering before the news and 2 of those 3 were right (but one was wrong - oh well!)

So, lets see if this is all luck or not....

BTW, the algorithm takes into account a lot of factors, such as patterns from previous NFP's, weekly jobless numbers etc etc etc

lol

right now the model is expecting a weakening of USD, I will post final direction prediction 20-30 mins before NFP

I would be thrilled if it could get 75% accuracy, will probably end up making 100-200 pips on the days its right and losing 50-100 on the days its wrong

I am also especially dubious about tommorow NFP anyways because it is final big news before election (call me a conspiracy geek)

good luck all

[James]

Originally posted by 20pipsaday

I am also especially dubious about tommorow NFP anyways because it is final big news before election (call me a conspiracy geek)

good luck all

mmm...now there is food for thought. Everyone is predicting a low number and a dollar collapse. Perhaps the present administration has other ideas?

[Tekunda]

Waiting for update. And according to your own prediction you either go long or short, no S/L, right? (if you estimate a loss of 100 pipsand more if you are wrong)
Pease clarify.

[20pipsaday]

model still says bad for usd

one slightly conflicting indicator in algorithm that doesn't agree 100% but for the most part still says bad for usd

yes im now long eurusd SL 1.2235

However I have a out of the money put on eurusd (half size of long eurusd position) just in case im really wrong and it shoots off the other way, might break even or not lose as much

good luck all :-)

[20pipsaday]

closed half of lots at 2390

SL on the rest is set at 2295

have a good day everyone, hope someone made some money off my lil algorithm

:-)

[gregh285]

now that my heartrate has returned to normal these are some of the observations i noticed for anyone trading fundamentals :

the fxsol platform would not accept market orders previous to news, also spread was 20pips so tight stops was impossible altough i was filled at my buy stop order price

MG kept fixed spread, price action was all over the place minutes before trying to gun for tight stops. Filled at 12307 on MG.
Euro struggling to gain 12400 supposedly huge options barrier, clear here opens double top 12450

Good luck

[dstock]

greg what do you have as low on fxsol

[Tekunda]

You have to set an alarm clock and 30 seconds before the big bang you need to enter the market.
FXCM honored my 20 pips stop and the price only moved 10 pips against me after my market order was placed. At 8:30 the price went straight up. I went in the market,GBP, at 17843 and went out at 1.7940. I am always aware of a a total retracement once the first leg has been accomplished, although with NFP numbers this very seldom happens.
I have another long entry order in place at 1.7952 with a 20 pips s/l. I hope that once the price has been able to break through 1.7950, we will be in for another leg, risking 20 pips of the almost 100 I made thus far. (Since more than 15 minutes have passed by now, FxCM will honor my entry order)
And if the price will retrace I have kept my 95 pips and lost nothing on a retracement.