rufffen XAU spot gold and majors trades

[rufffen]

ZONE TRADING RULES. UPDATED APRIL 2008.

I post weekly trading zones for majors on regular basis. Here are some
tips to trade zones, also some explanations follow.

SUP ZONE1 SUP ZONE2 - support zones. Zone 2 is the strongest.
RES ZONE1 RES ZONE2 - resistance zones. Zone 2 is the strongest.

Basically, you look to buy in support zones, and you look to sell in resistance zones. BUY in support zones when the trend is up, SELL in resistance zones, when trend is down.

PIN BAR to confirm reversal. On 1 hour chart you look for a pin bar setup to confirm price action reversal, once the price enters SUP/RES zone. Pin bar is a bar on the chart that has a long protruding wick or so-called nose. PIN bars are a good way of establishing a valid reversal in price action.

Confluence explained.

When weekly/monthly zones are combined for trading, intersection of 2 zones produces the greatest results. ALMOST 99% of the time price will reverse in the zones that have confluence.



Hi, it's been a while since I last posted, since then things changed, and now I work for a major local asset management company, with a total of USD $3Bln under management, I provide financial advisory and investment portfolio structuring services for HNW individuals.

We have 6 portfolio managers, pretty sophisticated risk management and portfolio valuation systems installed, still some of the equity trades, especially local stocks, most of the analysis and trades are handpicked without any computer intervention.

So since I got access to some of the best analytics, bloomberg terminal, risk management systems, I also trade on my own with my 2 accounts, which are spot metals and currencies, I clear via GoldmanSachs and I thought that since it's summer time and we got somehow lack of liquidity on local equity markets, with most of my clients going on holidays right about now ....

I will continue to post real-time setups on majors (EUR USD GBP USD USD CHF XAU spot gold), once a week, every Friday I will post high-probability BUY/SELL setups with BUY/SELL zones for the upcoming week. SL and TP will be provided as usual. All you have to do is monitor the price levels, if the price hits the BUY/SELL zone you manually execute a trade.

In my own trading (I developed my own style, mix of TA and risk management, quite simple really) I forecast future price action based on the price levels in the past, I do use some of the TA methodology, no EW, no indicators, no mumbojumbo stuff, only price patters / price fractals / price levels / price action. You can call it SELL rallies BUY pullbacks, as some of the porfolio managers here call it, but truth is it's HIGH probability BUY/SELL zones, which are based on the price action in the past.

I will post my trades at my own BLOG site, I will start one this FRIDAY, first zones to be out next FRIDAY 1st of June 2007.

I will post summary of trades every week here at M-tec, but emphasis is on my own BLOG site, since it's more convinient for me. I will not post any charts, TA comments or give out any know-how ideas and techniques, as some of them are proprietary methods of the company, where I work now.

So stay tuned for further updates.

You can view my previous MTEC posts since last year for some reference:

http://www.moneytec.com/forums/f59/e...e-part1-20287/
FX and XAU SPOT GOLD trades: Part1

thread is locked to avoid SPAM.

you can contact me via PM.

[rufffen]

Here is a link to the LiveJournal Blog, where I will post my BUY/SELL zones every Friday, starting 1st of June 2007.

[rufffen]

Ok lets try several possies, my trades this week based on more downside potential on EUR USD GBP USD, Im currently flat on XAU spot gold.

EUR USD SELL 3490-3530 SL 3560 TP 3400

GBP USD SELL - pending ... edit ....

SELL 9930-9980 SL 2.0 TP 9680 go for 300 points here.

edit GOLD SELL 658-662 SL 664 TP 650

[rufffen]

ok poor performance this week, apparently missing GBP USD trade trigger and missing TP on EUR USD (had 5 more pips to go to honour TP) and missing TP on XAU spot gold. Good setups but TPs not hit, so what I would recommend is closing the trades with some profit and waiting for new setups for the upcoming weeks.

I will revise charts and post BUY SELL zones over weekend. Please stay with me, as there will be some cherries to pick throught the journey.

[rufffen]

Updated last week: SL hit on XAU spot gold for a total of -4.

Update for new week: Outlook - GBP USD lower, EUR USD lower, USD CHF higher, XAU spot GOLD lower.

XAU SPOT GOLD SELL ZONE 1 684-691 SELL ZONE 2 674-677 SL 679 TP 665. SZ1 unlikely, wait for price to settle, short upon SZ2

EUR USD SELL ZONE 1 3580-3635 SL 3655 TP 3400SELL ZONE 23520-3540 TP 3400 - wait for SZ1 then you can add to the position.

GBP USD SELL ZONE 1 9980-2060SELL ZONE 2 SL 2090 TP 9800

USD CHF BUYZONE 1 2100-2150 SL 2080 TP 2260BUY ZONE 2 2195-2215

Some basic framework Id like to introduce is that you should look to BUY SELL in BZ1 and SZ1 first always, always good to buy/sell in zones 1, then just add in zones 2, TP for zone 2 is almost always the same as for zone1.

Lets see how it goes this week, I see great potential on GBP USD and USD CHF setups, lets see how it goes.

[rufffen]

ok, I thought Ill post an update, week of mild activity, I expect not much action this Friday, missed SELL zones on both GBP USD and EUR USD, USD CHF BUY ZONE was triggered (spiked to 2147 on my terminal), Id advise to close this trade with approx 100 pips profit towards the BEG of ASIAN.

Poor performance on XAU spot GOLD, missed SELL ZONE 2 by apporx 50 cents, not much liquidity going on here, my outlook remain BEARISH short-term, I will look to sell next week.

Updates with new ZONES for upcoming week, posted over weekend, as always. Please subscribe to this thread for regular updates. Have a good weekend everyone!

[rufffen]

I have worked out a possible scenario forecast on XAU spot GOLD, which is as follows:

A - hold current SHORTS till 660 is hit
B - LONG from 660-662 TP is 678-686 area
C - SHORT 680-684 SL 687 TP 668.

lets see if this scenario unveils in the next upcoming weeks, and if there is consistency with my new BUY SELL zones on this item.

[rufffen]

Ok, actually was a killer-Friday, what it tells is that noone got a crystal ball. Just watch the zones and wait for the price to hit it to BUY SELL. Simple.

Update for new week: Outlook - GBP USD lower, EUR USD lower, USD CHF higher, XAU spot GOLD lower. Outlook remains bearish for majors.

XAU SPOT GOLD SELL ZONE 1 684-695 SELL ZONE 2 669-672 SL 683 TP 637. SZ1 unlikely, wait for price to settle, short upon SZ2. Build up shorts and wait for reversal at 634-640 levels.

Two BUY ZONES:

615

626

637

641

wait for price to hold at lower 637 levels and rebound before going LONG.

EUR USD SELL ZONE 1 3645-3735 SL 3660 TP 150 pips SELL ZONE 2 3530-3560 TP 150 pips - you might wait for SZ1 then you can add to the position.

BUY ZONES

GBP USD SELL ZONE 1 9940-9980 SL 2080 TP 400 pips

BUY ZONES

USD CHF BUY ZONES - look to buy this week great potential on this item, upside capped with 2680

BZ1

1991
2073
BZ2
2155
2181 look to buy slightly over 2160 SL 40 pips TP 200 pips

SELL ZONES

SZ1

2396

2421

SZ2 - best zone for shorts

2503

2585 SL 40 pips TP 100 pips

Ok, I will brush the trading setups format this weeked, and starting next weekend I will post all the BUY / SELL zones with my comments at my blog, all the commentary and zones are free of charge. Have an excellent trading week everyone!