rufffen XAU spot gold and majors trades

[rufffen]

GBP JPY update

Those who loaded shorts since post 44 of 11th of March are in profit now (approx 300+ pips). Your TP zone should be the weekly BUY2 ZONE.

Currently trading at 203.80, some further upside available, but will trade below weekly balance point, which is 206.15 for the remainder of the week. Look to add to your NET short position on rallies. The chart is attached.

Also, USD JPY broke through critical levels and is trading at 100.30, if further downside will open, 95 is eminent, this will signal a cancellation of reversal of EUR USD GBP USD, however let's wait and see how yen behaves at 100 and GBP USD at 0340-0360 area, this is the last area for the reversal.

Here is a GBP USD reversal pattern

Elsewhere

EUR CAD reversal pattern here

Reversal didn't work out as expected and I lost some money trading it twice this week. It broke through the upper boarder of the final weekly resistance zone (5303-5410) and now is consolidating above 5400 levels.

Spot gold and spot silver not much activity here, currently consolidating in the tight ranges.

[rufffen]

EUR CAD reversal forecast

Ok, let's have a look at the Daily chart and see if we can forecast a reversal point, it's obvious that reversal is coming, but when exactly?

First step. Let's look at the previous swing points. They are previous high 5190 approx and 4441 low. Plug them in my equation for forecasting trend exhaustion, we come up with:

1,5432

1,5666

1,5955

1,6382

Ok, that's a start. 5432 is pretty close to current trading ranges.

Second step.

Let's look at price action structure on daily. Let's assume there is an AB=CD bearish reversal structure in making. Then point A is 4175 point B is 5190,
we subtract A from B this results in 1015 pips range.

Ok, now point C is 4446. We add 1015 to 4446 and this results in 5461, which is also close to current trading range.

Conclusion. Let's look for a reversal in 5440-60 area. Look for a valid pin bar setup on H4 or D1 charts and look to initiate your shorts soon.

[rufffen]

EUR CAD

BANG! This finally got hit at approx 5437 - 3 pips below forecasted levels! Hehe, what a day!

Update currently trading at 5300, targets are still approx 5050. that's 250 pips to go on the short side.

[rufffen]

Friday update

EUR CAD overshooting and trading well above 5460 levels, it's time to admit that I got it wrong this time, EUR CAD never been my speciality, just thought that the R/R was good on this trade. I had 2 losses approx 120 pips each trading it this week.

GBP JPY update

I want to post monthly zones for this pair. You use monthly zones in conjunction with weekly to fine tune reversal areas.

197.54	BUY1
200.60
203.66	BUY2
204.60
212.60	SELL2
213.54
216.60	SELL1
219.66

Monthly balance point is 208.60. Now, GBP JPY is trading below monthly and weekly balance point, and is trading in BUY2 monthly / BUY2 weekly. Id say this is enough data to go LONG at current levels and set SL at 203.00, but lets wait for the week close to position LONG on GBP JPY. Targets on LONGs 206.20 207.40.

Will keep weekly zones for new week after todays close.

[rufffen]

WEEKLY ZONES UPDATES SPOT GOLD AND MAJORS

CURRENCY	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	SPOT GOLD	USDX	EUR/CAD	EUR/JPY	GBP/JPY	ACTION
SUP ZONE2
A1	1.5550	1.9644	94.06	927		1.4885	150.53	191.54	BUY1
A	1.5555	1.9797	95.84	945		1.5024	152.15	194.61
SUP ZONE1
B1	1.5561	1.9949	97.62	962		1.5163	153.77	197.67	BUY2
B	1.5563	1.9996	98.18	967		1.5207	154.27	198.62
RES ZONE1
D	1.5578	2.0395	102.85	1012		1.5572	158.51	206.65	SELL2
D1	1.5580	2.0442	103.40	1017		1.5615	159.01	207.60
RES ZONE2
E	1.5585	2.0595	105.18	1035		1.5754	160.63	210.67	SELL1
E1	1.5591	2.0747	106.96	1052		1.5893	162.25	213.73