Sell Eur/Usd

[SERGIO.M]

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[Iris]

Hi Sergio...................

Based on your highlights on Committment of Traders data.....you track the percentage of Open Interest and the Long/Short percentile of positions held. If my conclusion is correct you are looking at Gross Position holdings.....you need to add another formula.....Net Trader Positions...whereby you would take the Commercials Gross holdings Long/Short and Net their value.

An example if the Commercials are Short 8,000 contracts.....and Long 10,000 contracts you would subtract the +10k from the -8k for a +2,000 Net Position....Net Majority Commercial Positions is the Formula that will enable you to have an accurate assesment
of this powerful group....and a index of current/future Directional
Price Movement based on Commercial Net Positions.

On Open Interest....always use total Open Interest. When Open Interest increases this is a Bearish sign....as when Open Interest decreases this is a Bullish sign.The Signal on Open Interest is most pronounced in a consolidation/range Market. Notice that as Open Interest expands to a higher level that Price Action begins to stall...and as Open Interest decreases a Rally is unfolding. Another important ingredient that should be combined with Net Traders Position data.

Time the Trend.

Iris

[Iris]

Sell Eur/Usd...................

Current Open Position....

Sell Eur/Usd.......1.1615.......Stop @ Breakeven.

Was looking for a High Percentile Retrace back to 1.1594...1.1600 for another Entry.....Hourly is linning up for break South. May enter in the 1.1560/70 basis.

[SERGIO.M]

Thak you Iris for your replay.

Good work.

[fairwind]

Hi there Iris & Sergio,

This is the first set of fundamental numbers that make any sense to me.

Iris,

Re "...you need to add another formula.....Net Trader Positions...whereby you would take the Commercials Gross holdings Long/Short and Net their value...."

Where do we access "Net Trader positions"??
I have searched all over the link you offered but I cant see that title any where.

[maximus]

I have find this link:http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

Bye

[TRADERguy]

Hi everybody,

Here is a tip for analyzing commitment of traders’ data. When you look at the data for commercials it is important to compare the recent figure to previous figures for the same currency/market. Commercials will almost always be net short because they are in the futures market to hedge a future position in which they will be long (that is have possession of) that currency. For example if the commercials are 60% short it wouldn’t tell you anything on its own. However, if they are 60% short when they are usually 80% short then it is bullish. Also, to make things more confusing, some of the companies that are labeled commercials because they have told the exchange/their broker that they only hedge, actually engage in speculation as well as hedging.

[Iris]

Sell Eur/Usd.....................

Sell Eur/Usd.......1.1615.....Stopped Out Breakeven.

Waiting to see if 1.1650/75 has a clean break upside......
or 1.1630/20 for the downside.

Iris