Sell Eur/Usd

[psperos]

I'm looking for a correction to start tomorrow if the nfp numbers are good. There should be more oppertunity in the gbp. I'm expecting over 250k jobs, only shorting the break.

OIL, Yields etc.. are all set up. This data may be the final trigger to reverse this move.

[Iris]

Eur/Usd..................

Great Research/Analysis and the Exchange of Ideas everyone...
its what makes this Global Community so vital to the formulating of each Individuals Strategy...Bravo and Great Exchange of Ideas.

Time/Price has a new Alltime High at 1.3459 after Fridays 200+ North move within striking distance of the 1.35 basis...were the ECB will begin to establish a containment...and the Market will begin to view the Monetary equation of GDP/Debt more clearly in light of a FED tightening cycle. Looking for a North containment zone at 1.3480<>1.3495 with increased EuroLand comments on the concerned and cautionary tone towards further Euro appreciation... for a South decline back thru 1.34 for 1.3380<>1.3350 with 1.3320 firming for a North advance.

[dstock]

Iris, Pete-
Interested to know where you think we are heading next. We just formed and interm double top in side an ascending triangle pattern. Is 145 next?

[dstock]

Chart

[psperos]

eur/jpy has a nice bullish ascending triangle formation on it as you point out. I cannot guess which way it will break, but as of now, it’s bullish till it starts breaking the yellow support areas and eventually the box.

There are some scenarios that could take place.

1. Break out. Same situation continues. Eur keeps rising even VS the yen as most of the dollar drop is weighted on the euro.

2. Break Down. USD keeps falling, but devaluation is focused more on dept in Asian countries. This would allow the yen to appreciate over the euro more in a dollar decline assuming the BOJ does not intervene against the dollar to the point it breaks it technically.

3. Break down. USD turns around and the euro pulls back. Eur/jpy could be limited to the down side if the BOJ is doing intervention during the process of a dollar bounce. That will most likely not be the case since the euro is taking the hardest hit in this dollar decline so far. If the dollar bounced we would see selling weighted towards the euro.

One thing to look at. Keep an eye on the gbp/jpy. It’s not as bullish as the eur/jpy and it highlights the weighted effect the USD is having on the euro vs other currencies. I would not be surprised to see the eur/jpy follow it if traders weigh the Asian currencies on the dollar decline more so than the euro in the future.

[Iris]

Hello Dstock...Pete........

Pete covered the possible scenario's...excellent Analysis...a North break of the NT50 at 139.11 sets in motion a run for the 50Fib at 143<>145 basis...with a North containment at 139.11 being a 1st Signal for a South decline to 136<>1.34 basis.


The 139.11 level is the Signal...and it has a current North containment at 138.70...Sell the containment...and Buy the break at 139.11 basis.

A Monthly look at Eur/Jpy....................

[Iris]

Eur/Usd..................

Time/Price has a new Alltime High at 1.3459 after Fridays 200+ North move within striking distance of the 1.35 basis...were the ECB will begin to establish a containment...and the Market will begin to view the Monetary equation of GDP/Debt more clearly in light of a FED tightening cycle. Looking for a North containment zone at 1.3480<>1.3495 with increased EuroLand comments on the concerned and cautionary tone towards further Euro appreciation... for a South decline back thru 1.34 for 1.3380<>1.3350 with 1.3320 firming for a North advance.

Time/Price has new Alltime High at 1.3468 with a South decline Low at 1.3192...Looking for a North containment at 1.3351<>1.3320 into a South decline continuance thru 1.33 for 1.3250<>1.32 to 1.3180 basis.

[jtb790]

Originally posted by Iris
Eur/Usd..................

Great Research/Analysis and the Exchange of Ideas everyone...
its what makes this Global Community so vital to the formulating of each Individuals Strategy...Bravo and Great Exchange of Ideas.

Time/Price has a new Alltime High at 1.3459 after Fridays 200+ North move within striking distance of the 1.35 basis...were the ECB will begin to establish a containment...and the Market will begin to view the Monetary equation of GDP/Debt more clearly in light of a FED tightening cycle. Looking for a North containment zone at 1.3480<>1.3495 with increased EuroLand comments on the concerned and cautionary tone towards further Euro appreciation... for a South decline back thru 1.34 for 1.3380<>1.3350 with 1.3320 firming for a North advance.

Question, Iris.

If Greenspan raises the interest rate 1/4 point next week, do you think this will help narrow the trade gap?

If so, how?

Anyone else is welcome to answer as well.

jtb