Sell Eur/Usd

[john fisher]

For those who say that the US dollar is going down because of the
¡¥unsustainable US trade deficit,' it is worthwhile pointing out that at 6.5% of
GDP, Australia's current account deficit is worse and at 5.5% of GDP, Britain's
is approaching American levels. Yet sterling and the Aussie dollar have been two
of the strongest currencies this year, rising 24% and 32%, respectively against
the greenback. So, as your comments (¡¥it matters when it matters') implicitly
suggest, the ¡¥unsustainable US current account' is really an ex post facto
rationalization for those getting on a speculative bandwagon

I agree with the analyst on http://www.trl.co.nz/trlfx/pages/trlfx.htm who posts here occasionally i.e. the Euro is repeating the pattern of early Jan 2004.

John F.

[fxsurfer]

John, good points regarding GDP. I like Iris's USD seasonal chart as it shows we are in a weak USD period which has been repeating year after year. The best way is to play the trend for this time of year and ignore what the so called 'experts' say. Just my 2c worth.

[SU25]

Iris:

EUR COT Weekly Data for Dec 14 as seen at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm is quite astonishing:

Non-Commercial:
Dec 14 ||| Dec 7
Long: 36,764 ||| 57,209
Short: 51,306 ||| 33,095
Net: (14,542) ||| 24,114

Commercial:
Long: 46,052 ||| 83,513
Short: 41,269 ||| 136,066
Net: 4,783 ||| (52,553)

Open Interest: 136,413 ||| 223,808


If this data is correct, how do you interpret this?

[Speculator]

Originally posted by Speculator

Here’s something else to consider. Examination of the last several years reveals that each year the second week of December is associated with some kind of forceful correction, which in turn is reversed the following week (December 13-17 this year) with very high volume in the direction of the trend. The chances the same is happening again are very high. It seems to me like a period in which the big boys take control over the trend, make a final run and kill it in a high volatility technical fashion that confuses and frightens small players. COT charts may confirm that.

There’s nothing to interpred. It was on the charts long before last week. I warned this would happen in my last post more than a week ago.
Here's the cot chart I've found to confirm it.

[FXLearning]

Speculator,

Sorry to bother you, but I am new to trading, and I was trying to understand your chart.

Would you mind telling me the meaning of it please.

TIA

[jtb790]

Yeah, is what you guys saying is that EUR/USD is about to take a flying leap up then fall back?

I missed something too....

[Iris]

Euro COT Weekly............Seasons Greetings All......

In the Euro Single Currency we see that the Large Speculators have begun to shift their heavily Net Long posture with a sizable increase in Net Short Positions...this indicates a Top is forming.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the Euro Single Currency the Large Speculators continue their slow unwinding of their Long Positions with Net Longs decreasing moderately...also Open Interest is decreasing from a Yearly extreme...Covering of the Long Positions. The Commercials continue a significant Net Short posture as they begin to Distribute their Shorts to the Large Speculators.

In the Euro Single Currency the Large Speculators have moved to a Net Short Position for the 1st time in the last Year with the Commercials moving into a Yearly Net Long posture...the Distribution phase of the Commercial Short Positioning has begun to the Large Speculators...also a sizable decrease in Open Interest signifies that the Large Speculator Long Covering is in motion and the 1.3468 Alltime High will remain intact. Looking for a North containment zone for the Eur/Usd at the 1.3417<>1.3390 basis for a South Reversal decline thru 1.3350<>1.33 to the 1.3250<>1.32 basis.

[Iris]

Euro COT Weekly............