Sell Eur/Usd

[amarnath]

Hi Jtb790,

Why you quote full message while you give your useless 2 lines replies

[jtb790]

Originally posted by amarnath
Hi Jtb790,

Why you quote....

Let me get back to you on that.

Sam

[Iris]

Eur/Usd.............

Looking for a North containment at 1.3530<>1.3550 for South Entries to a decline thru 1.3450<>1.34 to retest the 1.3380 basis.

Time/Price has a North High at 1.3494 into a South decline to 1.3344...Looking for a North pullback containment at 1.3405<>1.3425 for South Entries to a decline thru important support at 1.3340 toward further weakness at 1.3290<>1.3250 basis.

Um, Iris, I don't see any mention of EUR/USD going to 1.43+.

What happened to all that?

Sam...The North Train was Full for a break at 1.37...but the Journey was South to 1.31<>1.30...the Commercial Long/Short Positions of the Single Currency for the Euro and USD are being shifted to the Large Speculators...thus the Trend begins to unfold and expectation meets reality.

The Question going into 1st quarter 2005 is...

Is USD suffienctly weakened ?...
Or
Is Euro excessively appreciated ?

The Market is weighing the balance of this equation with the turn South for a 1.31<>1.30 heading before the above scenario begins to form for a North 1.37+ or South 1.25-...with Euro Large Speculators adding Net Shorts as the Commercials are in a Distribution phase of their Net Short buildup of the 4th Q2003. Also the USD 15 Year Seasonal posted back about 5 +/- pages shows a strenghtening Time Period for Jan/Feb...and an important Reversal window.

The Market is in excessive Euro appreciation mode.

[Iris]

Eur/Usd.................

Looking for a North containment at 1.3530<>1.3550 for South Entries to a decline thru 1.3450<>1.34 to retest the 1.3380 basis.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time/Price has a North High at 1.3494 into a South decline to 1.3344...Looking for a North pullback containment at 1.3405<>1.3425 for South Entries to a decline thru important support at 1.3340 toward further weakness at 1.3290<>1.3250 basis.

Time/Price has a South Reversal for 250 pips thus far in 24hrs...

As my Good Friend and Mentor... Currencia...would say....

The Real Secret of Trading lies in decifering the Right Side of the Chart...were Price has not yet been.

And Currencia is a Master at the Right Side of Trading.

Time/Price has a North containment at 1.3366 into a South continuance Low at 1.3249...Looking for a North containment at 1.33<>1.3310 for a South decline thru 1.32 to 1.3170<>1.3135 basis.

[Speculator]

Hi Iris, all,

Originally posted by Speculator .......
… if Euro gets to 4150 zone I’m very bearish Euro….

An ugly but classy correction seems have developed on sub-degree level but it is still technicaly justifiable from major and sub degree prospects.
A good deal of attention to the Time(ing) shall be paid the following couple of months. Important dates (+/- one day):
January 6, January 18, February 1, February 11/14
Top, bottom or breakouts are very possible around those dates.
New Grand Pivot levels: 1.30 and 1.3135(weighted)
Pivots should hold if the uptrend is to continue in its present form.
Else, alternative failed 5 scenarios may develop.
A chart of the sub-degree picture is attached.

Regards

[Iris]

Hello Speculator....

A Great 2005 to You my Friend.

Great Research/Analysis as Always.

1st Signal for a Longer South Reversal at a break of 1.3170<>1.3135 is in play Today the "6th of Jan." with the current Low at 1.3162

5 Sessions from 1.3666 to 1.3162=South 500+...that started from the 12/9/03 1.3135 run to the Alltime High. A break at South 1.3135 disolves 1 1/2 months of the North run...moving back to mid November 03. Your Grand Pivots are spot on...1.30<>1.3135 were the Bulls will take another run North...apart from Time/Price the COT Data has intersting developements for the Short side of Eur/Usd coupled with the Seasonal factors of the USD.

The Question going into 1st quarter 2005 is...

Is USD suffienctly weakened ?...
Or
Is Euro excessively appreciated ?

The Market is weighing the balance of this equation with the turn South for a 1.31<>1.30 heading before the above scenario begins to form for a North 1.37+ or South 1.25-...with Euro Large Speculators adding Net Shorts as the Commercials are in a Distribution phase of their Net Short buildup of the 4th Q2003. Also the USD 15 Year Seasonal posted back about 5 +/- pages shows a strenghtening Time Period for Jan/Feb...and an important Reversal window.

[Speculator]

Thanks Iris - Likewise.

6th is history and may turn out to be the low for this correction but lets allow one more day for marginal error as Euro may not be as perfect either.
Regarding my previous chart if 3-4 is related to 1-2 by ratio as it sometimes appears to be the case with EURUSD, then deeper correction might end up at: *1.618= 3108, *2= 3022 or *2.62= 2885
-if size-wise relation: *2.62= 3082, *3 = 2996(equal to the pivot)
Else we’ll be going up for a while.
Yesterday all majors have been testing their Grand Pivots. EURUSD and USDJPY were only inches away but haven’t made contact. GBP tested both levels and stays comfortably in the middle. AUD still holds price at the upper level. Today might be the key - perhaps regardless what the data?
In my opinion correction far below 1.30 is unlikely before we test the upside –unless something extreme hits the markets. Let’s not forget the much comfortable scenario of escalating tension around the Iraqi elections which is likely to be played. Its timing seems to have been reflected in Euro’s trend setup.

Cheers

[Iris]

Eur/Usd...........

The Question going into 1st quarter 2005 is...

Is USD suffienctly weakened ?...
Or
Is Euro excessively appreciated ?

The Market is weighing the balance of this equation with the turn South for a 1.31<>1.30 heading before the above scenario begins to form for a North 1.37+ or South 1.25-...with Euro Large Speculators adding Net Shorts as the Commercials are in a Distribution phase of their Net Short buildup of the 4th Q2003. Also the USD 15 Year Seasonal posted back about 5 +/- pages shows a strenghtening Time Period for Jan/Feb...and an important Reversal window.

The North advance for a break at 1.37 has arrived...South at 1.3023......note the convergences at 1.28 basis and the velocity of the Reversal in 6 Daily candles...not seen since Feb03.

Regarding my previous chart if 3-4 is related to 1-2 by ratio as it sometimes appears to be the case with EURUSD, then deeper correction might end up at: *1.618= 3108, *2= 3022 or *2.62= 2885
-if size-wise relation: *2.62= 3082, *3 = 2996(equal to the pivot)

With Speculators above calculation within 1 Pip...Bravo Spec.