Sell Eur/Usd

[Iris]

US Dollar Index............

From the 12/21/03 Post........

The US Dollar Index has had a decline of 3000 contracts by the Large Speculators with Open Interest declining 5000 contracts
...the Short Covering in USD has begun...the Commercials have had a decline of Long Positions of almost 4000 contracts. The US Dollar Index appears to have begun forming a Top/Bottom across the FX Majors with the current High/Low most likely set for this phase of Positioning...and a break to New USD Historic Lows not sustainable currently. Looking for the US Dollar Index to consolidate the South move to Historic Lows with the Commercial Net Long Positioning begining to Flow to the Large Speculators. The April 1995 Low at 80.36 basis with the current US Dollar Low of 2004 at 80.91 also confirms the Net Majority Positioning in USD to have begun to form a Bottom...watch for USD consolidation at 81 basis as corrective Positioning into North advances to 84.50 with a break at 84.50 being a 1st Signal that the Bottom is complete. The Monthly Time period has a definitive Spike Bottom for November...with the December candle currently challenging the Open/Close of November.

Time/Price in the US Dollar Index met the 1995 Historic Low of 80.36 to the 2005 Low at 80.39...and heading for a test at 84.50 basis.

[FXLearning]

Speculator and Iris,

I enjoy your posts. However, I can not rely on them since I don't understand them.

In one post you say that the Euro is going up; however, in another post you say the dollar index is going up. So which is it?

Is the dollar index going up, or is the Euro going up?

My level of technical terminology is not as profound as yours so I get easily confused.


__________________________________________________ __
quotes:

Time/Price in the US Dollar Index met the 1995 Historic Low of 80.36 to the 2005 Low at 80.39...and heading for a test at 84.50 basis.

The North advance for a break at 1.37 has arrived...South at 1.3023......note the convergences at 1.28 basis and the velocity of the Reversal in 6 Daily candles...not seen since Feb03.

An ugly but classy correction seems have developed on sub-degree level but it is still technicaly justifiable from major and sub degree prospects.

[jtb790]

Originally posted by FXLearning
Speculator and Iris,

I enjoy your posts. However, I can not rely on them since I don't understand them.

In one post you say that the Euro is going up; however, in another post you say the dollar index is going up. So which is it?

Is the dollar index going up, or is the Euro going up?

My level of technical terminology is not as profound as yours so I get easily confused.


__________________________________________________ __
quotes:

Time/Price in the US Dollar Index met the 1995 Historic Low of 80.36 to the 2005 Low at 80.39...and heading for a test at 84.50 basis.

The North advance for a break at 1.37 has arrived...South at 1.3023......note the convergences at 1.28 basis and the velocity of the Reversal in 6 Daily candles...not seen since Feb03.

An ugly but classy correction seems have developed on sub-degree level but it is still technicaly justifiable from major and sub degree prospects.

FXL, I left off trying to figure out what Iris says, a long time ago. I just like to look at her colorful charts.

Overload

[FXLearning]

jtb790,

I would have to agree with you that the charts are great.

[Iris]

Hello FXLearning...........

In one post you say that the Euro is going up; however, in another post you say the dollar index is going up. So which is it?

Is the dollar index going up, or is the Euro going up?

The US Dollar Index is the Single Currency for which the Majors are paired with......when the Eur/Usd has a North rally the USDX is in decline and vice versa. The underlying strength/weakness of USD as a Single Currency gives important clues as to the direction for the pairs in the FX Majors such as...Eur/Usd...Gbp/Usd...
Usd/Chf...Usd/Jpy.

Research of the Single Currency...in this case the US Dollar determines Future Pre-Positioning strictly based on the Directional Movement of the US Dollar. The COT Data is a Tool for Net Majority Positioning for All the Single Currency instruments...and when combined and paired in FX shows how the various Single Currencies are reacting/interacting towards and against each other...and there's Gold...Oil and the Bond Market as counter indicators but thats another story...to be more direct to your question...I look at the Single Currency of both the Euro and the US Dollar to see how the Smart Money are Positioning for future Net Directional Movement...then converted to the FX Eur/Usd... begin to Pre-Position with them...many here at MoneyTec understand these concepts as viable Research Tools...take your Time... you will over Time see the benefits also.

I would have to agree with you that the charts are great.

Thank You for the compliment...my Friends here and elsewhere know that Iris=Eye...I'm a Male from Boston Massachusetts USA and I have continually for over 1 1/2 years posted my Research/Analysis here in Intraday Trade Recommendations for other Iris's around the World that See.

[FXLearning]

Iris,

Thank you for the explanation.

You mentioned that you look at " Single Currency of both the Euro and the US Dollar."

I understand from this that you are looking at the US Dollar Index; in addition, (I am assuming) you are looking at a Euro Index, and at the COT data. I am not very good at reading the COT data, however, from what I found out from the last report I infered the following:

Long Non-Commercial positions decreased more than shorts; however, overall they were more longs.
Long Non-Commercial positions 40,163; changes from last report -10,786
Short Non-Commercial positions 30,022; changes from last report -1,594

Long Commerical positions decreased more than shorts; however, overall they were more shorts.
Long Commercial positions 46,395; changes from last report -8,764
Short Commercial positions 75,510; changes from last report 2,836

Total positions long 112,917; changes from last report -12,676
Total positions short 131,891; changes from last report 8,116
Overall, there were more shorts than longs by 18,874 contracts.

There appears to be a difference between the total position and the sum of the Non-Commercial and Commercial positions.

Difference for long positions 26,359 (same amount as reported under the column spreading?)
Difference for short positions 26,359 (same amount as reported under the column spreading?)

There is another column that I don't know what it is titled "Nonreportable Positions", but for now I am ignoring it. It appears to be the difference between the total open interest and the total long positions, and the difference between the total open interest and the total short positions. In this columns there are more longs than shorts by 18,874 contracts (same amount as found above).

It is a complete riddle.

In summary from a first glance, there were more more shorts than longs by looking only at commercials and non-commercials.


In your previous posts you said that "The North advance for a break at 1.37 has arrived...South at 1.3023......note the convergences at 1.28 basis and the velocity of the Reversal in 6 Daily candles...not seen since Feb03," and you also said "Time/Price in the US Dollar Index met the 1995 Historic Low of 80.36 to the 2005 Low at 80.39...and heading for a test at 84.50 basis."

From the above, can I infer that you expect to go down to 1.28 in Eur/USD, and to go up to about 84.50 in the dollar index.


If I include the information that I managed to get from the COT it shows shorts are dominating which would lend support to your guess that Euro/USD will go to 1.28.

Am I reading this correctly Iris? Am I missing something important in the interpretation, if you don't mind me asking?

[Speculator]

Originally posted by Iris
Eur/Usd...........
With Speculators above calculation within 1 Pip...

There seem to be one smaller degree wave5 missing… Perhaps the market speared the pip for it… ha ha
One more dip possible. If this is really intermediate wave 4 but not something else... sharp reversal may follow.
Watching out for pivot test (1.2995) at market’s opening.

[Speculator]

If someone remembers my curve charts from last Spring, the following is another great example of “When time is up the price will move”