Sell Eur/Usd

[Iris]

Hi James...............

Thank You for your kind words.

The move North from the 1.0900 basis I Posted about in my 9/2/03 Reco..........

If market powers up at the 1.0900 basis...Positioning for the maxiumum Range Move of the Rally needs low/low mid 1.09 Entries.

My low/low mid 1.0900 Position Trades are still Open. My next thread will be just Eur/Usd with comments Long/Short inside to eliminate confusion. On this Rally...I went Long Position Trades...and Shorted the pullbacks as the quote above and the thread were in atests...and yes the Longs have done very well.

I still see the Primary Long Term Trend down....and that we are in a corrective pattern of that continuation.

Would enjoy seeing your Real Time Reco's here in the Forum if at all possible for all members/guests to follow.

Again....Thank You for viewing.

Best Regards,

Iris

[James]

Thanks Iris. I did notice your idea that euro might rally from 1.0900, but didn't see any specific trades such as those you posted for all the short positions.

I can't agree about euro being in a primary long term down trend, but we will see what happens at 1.1850/1.1930/1.2000 which will set the next course. No-one really knows!

Each to their own opinion. The market is a great leveller and we all get proved wrong quite often, despite any arrogant, insistent attitudes we may adopt about a position (not talking about you - talking of all of us including me )

Actually part of Team Forex is a session signal service, so I won't post them here Some of my commentary and analysis is posted daily on www.fxstreet.com though, but not the exact entry prices for each session. Also we don't give "real time" reco's, but post the trades before the sessions start as a "set and forget" system.

What I have found interesting from your thread is the importance you place on "time" I have always traded on the basis of price alone, contending that time is irrelevant. I have done very well with my "price only" trading methods and have never seen a reason/argument to consider time as part of the equation.

For example I may buy near a particular support zone, and hold longs as long as the support holds, whether it takes a minute, day or week to reach my target.

I know Gann, Elliot and Fibonacci etc etc place varying degrees of emphasis on time and price/time relationships, but I have never delved very deeply into it myself.

Anyway, to cut a long story short, I am very happy with my price based analysis method, but am starting to read more on the interaction between price and time. I am starting with fibonacci time and circles and will maybe get to the complexity of Gann one day!
Whether this will add to or detract from from my trading abilities, time will tell!

[Mizzer]

Im intrigued how you consider the Euro in a long term downward trend considering it has been going up since June/July 2001?

[rezo_s]

Understanding this claim for long term downtrend is a dilemma for me too.
Lets take a look:

inception of euro: 1999

downtrend: Jan. 1999 - Oct 2000 (apx 22 months of downtrend).
range trading Oct 2000 - Jan. 2002 (apx 15 months)
Uptrend: since Feb. 2002 - Till now? (apx 18 months of upside trend)

Now I don't think we can talk about the uptrend as part of longer term downtrend here...sorry - numbers talk for themselves.

I am not talking about the previous DEM now...yes its related, yes eurozone is very dependant on Germany, but still I think it has more differences rather than similarities with previous currency, and therefore its not right to compare these 2 currencies. Euro should be treated as completely new and separate currency (in my opinion)...and therefore there is no talking about longer term downtrend than uptrend...

Just my 2c

[Iris]

Eur/Usd.....Long Term Trend....Monthly/10 Year Frame.

James......Mizzer.

The basis for my opinion on the Long Term Trend being down starts with an Analysis of Long Term Price through Time based on the Monthly/10 Year Frame. The 8/31/95 alltime High of 1.3820 progressed down to the 8/31/97 Low at 1.0995. From the 1.0995 Low the Rally High peaked at the 10/31/98 1.2402 secondary Top.

Price then moved through Time for a decline to the 10/31/00 alltime Low at 0.8225. Consolidation occured from the 10/31/00 0.8225 level through the 5/31/02 High at 0.9416.... with a breakout to the Upside occuring on 6/30/02 at 0.9992... Price Rallied to the 5/31/02 1.1934 High....failing to challenge the 1.2402 secondary Top...a Failure Swing...South.

The next decline from the 6/31/02 level moved South to the 1.0763 Low. The current Rally we are in first needs to test/break the 1.1934 5/31/02 High for a run to the Real breakout point for a confirmation Trend continuation at the secondary Top of 1.2402.

This years High at 1.1934 ...in my opinion.. is not a confirmation point....a test/break of the secondary Top on 10/31/98 at 1.2402
will establish a run for a new secondary Top...or a challenge to the alltime High at 1.3820. In my opinion this years 1.1934 High was a Failure Swing for the 1.2402 challenge...this Rally is apexing and may be a 2nd Failure Swing attempt...or may move after a correction to test/break the 1.2402 level.

It was 3 years from the 1.3820 to the 1.2402 levels. And now we have 5 years and counting from the 1.2402 level...with a Failure Swing South at 1.1934 to 1.0763. Is this Rally the momentum/magnitude move for a challenge to the 1.2402 area....your right no one knows...but based on Time...we do know what we have set for Price levels.

The 1.2402 level is the important basis area to watch from a Long Term Trend perspective in my opinion.

Best Regards,

Iris

[Mizzer]

Id be wary of using numbers prior to 99 when the Euro was actually launched and made available. Also for such short timescale trading, i.e. a few days/weeks at the outside, is not the the past year or so most appropriate? Even the past month...there was so much more, and safer, long oppertunities than short. I guess it comes down too, how far back is far enough? How long are you holding trades for? Mins, Hours, Days, Weeks, Months, Years. A scalper need not concern themselves with prices a couple of days/weeks ago, let alone years, and someone holding for days/hours need not really concern themselves with prices from months back, bar looking for possible significant points on the very long term trend that could start a new short term trend (short term being perhaps a few weeks).

[SERGIO.M]

Hi Iris,

Thank you for your suggestion.

[Iris]

Hi Sergio...............

Move South 200 pips in about 29 hours........Market will say it was ECB's Duisenberg's comments on Euro not being tied to Asian Currency intervention talks.

Yet the writing was on the Wall....in Net Committment of Traders.

Core Fundamental factoring takes precedence over overt gesturing and recants.

The 1.1550/00 basis important support ...... will show the magnitude of erosion....or a strong bounce north for a test of the 1.1934 yearly High.

Time the Trend.

Iris