Sell Eur/Usd

[Wall]

http://www.freecotcharts.com/Free%20Charts.htm

If you go to this site (Free), and check the COT net positions since September, you will see what Iris is talking about! Check the DX holdings of the Commercials! Then check the EuroFX - and do the math!

[rezo_s]

...you will see what Iris is talking about

much simpler math:

Iris is holding this thread called "sell eur/usd" for more than a months now, and euro was up since than 1000pips...I think this math is much easier to interpret than the numbers/charts you are pointing to, and are free as well . I dont know why you think anyone here is against Iris...we are discussing market here, and no need to post things like "you will see what Iris is talking about".

We may dissagree about some issues, and it IS ok, after all, this is what market is all about. Smeone selling, someone buying. Everyone make mistakes. Every trader takes wrong side of the market and gets looses from time to time.
I know what Iris is talking about, and my argument was that I dissagree that current upside move is just a correction on the way to longer term downtrend...I see this argument was nicely ignored by Iris (argument that DEM and EURO are 2 diff currencies; he is talking about euro highs from 1995 wheres euro was launched in 1999) and for such atitude I would like to thank him very much.

Regards,

Rezo

[Wall]

I agree (Mizzer) that starting from 1999 for technical analysis would be more likely to compare same to same. Determining the trend is elusive – we all agree (other than with the retrospectoscope). To determine the prevailing tendency for the direction of movement, all we can hope to do is to identify as early as possible, the probable trend of the market. Mathematically, a trend is a series – a series has to repeat at least 3 times. But, the timeframes have to be identical. In the long term analysis, Iris mentioned monthly charts. Forgive me Rezo, but I believe that you previously mentioned daily charts.

So in that case, the charts are interesting:
Weekly Chart:
Double top high’s on 5/30/2003 and 6/20/2003 (1.19) – higher than the kickoff high 1/8/1999. But both of these were rejection bars – the close was lower than the open. We then slid down to a low of 9/5/2003 (1.08). Was this a reaction low in an uptrend (will need to close above 1.19) or is it a secondary high signaling the start of a downward trend (will have to close below 1.08). The 7 week MA crossed below the 22 week MA (Ichimoku) on 8/22/2003. Time will tell but the shape of the bars forming the ?reaction low in an uptrend, went very low – more like the shape of the start of a secondary high and a trend down.

Monthly Chart:
Double top on 5/30/2003 and 6/30/2003. The second high was a rejection bar as was the month of 7/31/2003 and 8/29/2003. September closed as a positive bar but it was a new low (1.0765) – is it a reaction low in the upward trend, or part of a secondary high? For the trend to continue it has to close > 1.1932. The 7 month and 22 month MA crossed below and then above last month. Time will tell.

Daily Chart: This is the most interesting:
Here there is not even a question. There was a double top high on 5/27/2003 and 6/16/2003. A reaction low on 7/16/2003. A secondary high on 7/25/2003 and then clearly a downtrend began when this low was breached. 3 times the close was halted at this reaction low, and then it closed below on 8/21/2003. We had a reaction low in a downtrend on 9/3/2003 and we now have a question – are we dealing with a reaction high in a downtrend right now, or do we have a sideways moving market which will bounce around highs of 1.16 and lows of 1.08 for a while? Time will tell.

What of History? After the 1991 gulf war the dollar index declined to a low of 80.65. That took about 3 years. Then it took about 2 years to start its recovery. That was the uptrend (with many reactive lows) that took it to its high in July 2001. There is no doubt that the USDX is still in a downtrend, and if history repeats itself, will be so for the next 2 years to a low of around 80. We in FOREX currencies follow not the EUR or the US$ but the EUR/USD ratio. For this to be in an uptrend, we assume that the EUR must get stronger and the DX weaker (and vice versa). But what would happen if the EUR AND the DX BOTH get undermined (The Euros rise gives China an even further competitive advantage) and at the same time? Also, what is a DX? It is not a US$ and is dependent on a geometric weighted average of a change in six foreign currency exchange rates against the US Dollar relative to March 1973. The USDX measures the dollar's general value relative to a base of 100.00. There are 17 country currencies represented in the USDX (12 countries of the Euro zone plus the five other nations whose currencies are represented in the USDX). The formula is USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD-0.576 × USDJPY0.136 × GBPUSD-0.119 × USDCAD0.091 × USDSEK0.042 × USDCHF0.036 and is calculated 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. So, just as the DJIA provides a general indication of the value of the US stock market, the USDX provides a general indication of the international value of the US Dollar. So what about China? I could write about the Yuan for another 2 pages! What happens if Pres. Putin decides to sell Oil in Euros not US$’s?

Maybe you are both right. Time will tell. But Iris is right about one thing – the closest that we can come to understanding what the “big boys” or the “market movers” (as they used to be called) are doing, is to follow their actions by watching the COT reports.

[rezo_s]

Thank you Iris

[Running_FX]

You people really think the "big boys" with their $100 MNs make their currency bets on....the futures exchanges, LOL.
Like Soros did when he bet against GBP making a reputed £800M in a few days ?

I submit that the COT reports are but a mere fraction of the total value of forex trade (mainly being OTC interbank market etc).

I am not convinced of the value in looking at COT reports.
At worst they misinform and at best useless..

Maybe I am missing something.

[currencia]

Iris:: Keep up the good work with your ideas and concepts and trading, despite the naysayers.

Attached is my time and price on this pair on the monthly chart.

It certainly looks down to me despite and inspite of other's ideas to the contrary. The time analysis matches as well to the price action, so keep working on your timing.

[fourstar]

This is all facinating to me...

But this might be a dumb question but when I look at the COT chart, all I see is the commercials getting more bearish as the pair gets more bullish (and vis versa)...

Doesn't that mean that the commercials are on the wrong side of the trades? And if so, then why are they the SMART money?

Confusedstar

Currencia, thanks for your chart. It opened my eyes...

[Iris]

Currencia.......... A Picture tells a thousand words. Thank You.

Gentlemen.................

Excellent exchange of the Ultimate Oscillator in Trading..........

Mind=Perception=Ideas=Strategy.

Our Viewpoints are a learning tool that we openly exchange for debate and hopefully consensus....as to what is empirical and accurate versus misinformation and delusion in our Analysis of Directional Price Movement.

We may not be in synchronicity....yet Everyones input casts a larger realization on the Market...from each of our own perspectives...for a collective assessment. As it should be.

At 11:45pm EST Eur/Usd at 1.1643....looking for a upside to 1.1665/1.1700...with a move South before weeks end at 1.1550/00.

Time the Trend.

Iris