Sell Eur/Usd

[poncho]

Hi Iris,

I am relatively new in this (six months). I see alot of contradictory data. Sometimes seeing so many person's opinions confuses me more. Iwill try to read a few that suite me only and one of them is yours. Hope to see more opinions from you.

Thanks.

[Mizzer]

currencia your chart goes back to 1990?! Again, how on earth can a decent comparison be made on a currency that was not made available or in use until 1999? Any figures prior to that point are pretty meaningless. Talk of a Euro currency goes back to the 1960s, why not try and dig up some anticipated valuations from then?? And again, holding time comes into play. If your not holding for extreme long term, then the long term trends dont play such a major part in the equation. If aiming for a profit of even 200pips, how does a monthly chart help where one bar can be 500pips+? As Rezo mentioned there has been a gain of 1 000 pips since end of Aug, a 200 pip downward movement does not suddenly validate a bearish attitude, "timeing the trend" will eventually be right because yes price will turn bearish eventually, but at what cost when your trying to fight the flood? Look how good bearish recomendations were in the downtrend over the summer, look how poor they have been since the 2 month uptrend began. If you are so set on one side of the trades then at least wait until the trend comes back on your side. If Euro is now becoming bearish, the trend was not timed at all, it was just said repeatedly until the market accomodates the thinking.

Since launce in 99, Euro went down for 2 years a double bottom formed on the monthlys, now its been up for 2 years. Regardless of where the currency will be in another 2 years, many many more up/down trends will be formed. Those medium term trends of a few weeks are the ones that matter unless your holding your positions for months at a time. Since start of 2002 we have had 17 months where the price has ended higher, and 4 months where price has ended lower. Price may indeed turn bearish again now, in which case yes sell with it, but if/when price yet again swings up why keep selling?? If nothing else at least stay side lined. From start of 2003 till mid summers down trend began there was only 2 Weeks where price ended lower signifcantly in 6 months (significantly being a tiny 100 pips or so)! Please dont tell me that the "timed trend" choice was selling all the time during the 6 months. Again the past 2 months not one single down week. Why on earth fight it??

As side note yes Ive made money selling in the past 2 months as well as buying, but im not kidding myself and saying im going with the trend.

[currencia]

Mizzer:

My charts go back a lot further than 1990 and they are useful to me. So, what is meaningless to you may certainly not be meaningless to others. And my charts go back further than 1960 as well, so I really dont have to "try to dig them up someplace"!

Monthly charts are helpful, and so are quarterly charts. I use those also! It is only 2003 the last time I checked. Charts going back to but 2001 only tell a miniscule part of the story. The equity markets are at the peak of a wave 5 that began 50 years ago! I need to find wave 1 and wave 3 of that cycle. I have the charts that do that also!

Why do you say that I am set on "one side of the market"? I trade euro in both directions.

If charts going back to 2001 are all that is important to you, and you herein admit that since 1999 euro went down for 2 years and then up for two years, then you are saying that euro is sideways!

I sell euro because I make money doing it!

I dont kid myself by saying the trend is my friend. The trend aint my friend! The trend can only be confirmed on the left side of the chart- after it is too late to use it. I dont need any friends that aren't around when U need them and only come to the party long after the fact. For me, that little trend frend riddle is a snow job of little value.

Do you see me fighting anything? My trades are working. If all you see on the chart is 100 pip down moves on euro, then we must not be looking at the same charts. And yes, for most all of this year I have been successfully trading euro south, with 75% of my trades being south and 25% being north.

One ought look at the JPY. It has been in a serious down trend forever-since 165! So, why has everyone been mostly trading it north for numerous years now?

In the end, the chart I posted says south to me. Now, if it says north to you, that's ok with me.


Now, I am sure I missed a few of your points. Good trading to you as well, no matter which direction you trade!

[rezo_s]

this market started forming in 1973 when the second gold devaluation ended...ye, some currencies may have existed in 1960 (especially euro ), but there were no official exchange rates...(as far as I remember form the previous life ). So I think by 1960 charts you meant not forex ???

I actually think you are a great trader currencia, and I am sorry that we are not sharing ideas here with each other. I dont know how it happened...but what you say we forget about it?
after all, it doesnt matter when was euro launched, bcos many use DEM data "as if it was euro"...its just that it IS different currency...BUT is this tiny little thing woth fighting?
For Currencia, Iris and many more traders this may be useful and helpful, for others not - but does it really matter?
If you ask me - if trader uses ONLY tick data to trade and is profitable over proven period of time - WHY NOT? who are we to tell him/her what time frame and what data to use...we may just ask him/her things we are interested in or discuss some ideas...and he/she may share if he/she wishes...

[JackDavid]

Fellow FX Traders,

Explanation is not necessary.
Your friends don't need it.
Your enemies will never understand it.

For me, it doesn't matter what tools we use as long as it leads to income. Whether it's a sign from the stars, or when the moon shines too bright means Long EUR/USD and when it does not, then it's Short EUR/USD. Fundamentals or Technical, it doesn't matter as long as you earn.

Discussions are discussions.

This forum is an eye-opener to a lot of people - count me in.

Our thinking and views may be different but (please) let us always respect opinions and ideas of other people.

Let us not "harshly" critized one another.

Take note, this forum does not pay the (shared) ideas of the members - I mean direct payment. Members share their ideas for the rest of group - members and non-members.

Income is income. There is nothing wrong in getting profit.

Regards to everyone.

Let's kee the new ideas flowing

[James]

I think what gets people in this forum most irritated is the attitudes of people on both sides. Some people posting their ideas and trading strategies do so with a sort of arrogance and "know-it-all" attitude, as if their opinions are the only ones which have any value.

Other people criticize and shoot down ideas and comments as if they have the right to be the judge and jury on what is valid/relevant/interesting and what's not.

There is no point in being unkind, arrogant or nasty. Most people in here want to exchange ideas and analyses in an open and friendly atmosphere. If you are posting your thoughts, do so in a humble and helpful manner, and if you are replying, stick to the same attitude. That will eliminate a lot of the petty arguments and bickering which takes place here, and we will all enjoy the experience a lot more

I am sure there is room for widely differing opinions which all make for interesting and thoughtful reading. I don't agree with Iris some of the time, but good on him for posting his ideas and good luck to him and all of us in the market!

[xtsunami]

currencia,

As usual, a well thought out and logical "teaching" on trading currency.

I, for one, have benefited greatly from the thoughts and comments you have shared. Thank you!

xt

ps,

tell da monkey he(she) is missed on the forums....hey maybe we can get him(or her) the e-bay-like rating system too....da monkey would probably set the pace and wouldn't even vote for him(or her)self....

[Iris]

Sell Eur/Usd....................

Nice break South from 1.1700.

Looking for retrace North to 1.1660/70.....

For break to retest 1.1550/00

Time the Trend.

Iris