Sell Eur/Usd

[pqt]

Originally Posted by pqt

...
but of course the market is only listening to what it wants to hear...

...and the sharks always get their spoil...while the suckers get shafted...

[alexandre1647]

Perfect!
Thank you Sir for all your hard work and contribution to this site.
Alex.

[FxBlaster]

Originally Posted by Iris

Hello Everyone...........

Eur/Usd has loaded the North Train with the break at 1.2350...the ECB's threshold...to a current High at 1.2401...for a South Reversal.

The US Dollar Index has a retest at the 87.50 basis...possible Double Bottom to the next North advance onto 88.50<>90.50 basis.

Eur/Usd North Containment at 1.2400<>1.2375 and below for Sell/South Entries to 1.2325<>1.23 awaiting US NFP Data on Friday.

Iris FX Websites in the Classifieds.

Hello Iris.
Excellent analysis i wish you the best for your websites and your future plans. again one of the best thread on moneytec.
take care.. and take some rest
FxBlaster.

[Noor]

Hi Iris,
This is my first time ever to post in a thread. Thank you very much for all the wonderful work your doing here. I have a question: when commercials add contracts while having the Large Specs reducing/holding their contracts, does that solidify your sell south containment zones? and if it does, can I risk more lots in the trade since the containment is solidified? And when it comes to your buy north containment zones, do they solidify as well when Large Specs Add contracts while having commercials reducing/holding their contracts? Sorry for interrupting your work, But I had this question in mind since I have read your post #1331 on page 167
Best regards,

[Iris]

Hello Everyone.............

Thank You for your very Kind Words...but most of all Thanks for viewing and participating in the Research/Analysis published here by myself and other Members over the Years at MoneyTec with a sole purpose of providing Fundamental/Technical realities in FX and Single Currency Futures that show the neccesity in having a multiplicity of Tools that confirm Net Majority Positioning...ie the Trend... within Higher and Lower Degrees of Time into Price that gives a Directional Bias based on Time Fundamentals into Price Discovery that is instituted in Price Technicals.

The Ebb and Flow of Time into Price based on Facts.

Noor...Thanks for a Great Question...

when commercials add contracts while having the Large Specs reducing/holding their contracts, does that solidify your sell south containment zones? and if it does, can I risk more lots in the trade since the containment is solidified? And when it comes to your buy north containment zones, do they solidify as well when Large Specs Add contracts while having commercials reducing/holding their contracts?

The Commercials/Large Speculators in COT are the mechanism in Single Currecies that reflect the Fundamentals at work within that Currency...all that needs to be garnered in a Nations Economic condition from a Fundamental standpoint can be deduced by the interaction of these two in Positioning from the Higher Degree being Monthly into Quarterly into Yearly. The Accumulation/Distribution phases of building a Net Long/Short Position in Time that reflects the Fundamentals of that Currency. Now down to the Lower Degree that translates into the Technicals of Price Discovery and Directional Bias into Real Time... and to the point of your question...at the Weekly level. When the Commercials have built a Position in the Market say Net Short as in the current US Dollar Index consolidation and begin a Short Covering as their currently doing and have moved to a 12 week increase in Net Longs from their lowest levels and the Large Speculators have decreased their Longs with their Short Positions modulating within a close Range but no decisive breakout to the Short side of the Market...that signals a consolidation is unfolding. The verification of a Major Time/Price level being established comes in observing Open Interest for when a large decrease is occurring under the above conditions and its exclusively the Commercials they are Exiting their Shorts thus verifying a Major Low is being set in current Positioning. The Net +/- in Positioning of the Commercials vs. Large Specs on the Weekly gives clues as to where important Hourly/Daily upcoming Time/Price levels are established from a Lower Degree...then couple that to the Higher Degree based on MTH/QTR/YR for Long Term Positioning...Yes the expansion/contraction in Positioning from the Commercials/Large Speculators establishes important Price levels over Time that reflect the Fundamentals in the Currency and estsablishes the upcoming Price Technicals... and adding lots to Position should only occur when a clear Reversal Signal is given and that will be in Netting the Ratio between these two continuously and watching for disparities based over prior Weeks/Months and in so doing will confirm Price Discovery into upcoming Directional Movement. Here is a Higher Degree on Major turning points in the US Dollar Index and the corresponding Time into Price levels achieved in the Eur/Usd that I posted here back in Feb 05.

Enjoy the Weekend Everyone...18Hrs till the Open.

[Noor]

Thank you so much Iris for such a clear explanation, now I am back to calculating the matrix in post # 1174 page 147 after having stuff clearer , .... I have another question please, Do you think that Commercials moves when increasing/decreasing contracts has a clearer impact on the market than Large Speculators?..... back to your post # 1205 page 151, I am trying to point out my finger at the previous support area between 1.2520<>1.2485.... combining this area with the current fundamentals .... Do you think 1.2520<>1.2485 is now a very strong resistance area? and did it expand to 1.2485<>1.2450? or is it even lower than that? I am still trying to figure out how to scale into positions... I tried to do a research on time/price here on Moneytec but unfortunately could not find what I am looking for ... is there any spacific thread you would recommend me to read? Thank you so much for every word you have written on Moneytec,, you have revealed a solid trading discipline with a perfect explanation to the community .... I advice everyone who is interested in learning Forex trading to go over Iris thread starting from page one.... there is a whole bunch of valuable information all in one thread!!!
Best regards,

[idejan]

Originally Posted by idejan

Hi Iris everyone
Well I'm just not sure. Even with a USD bullish bias, it still has a room to at least 1.2450
It is in the target zone but we'll just see. At the moment it is consolidating and will most probably break up in the next one hour. Also most probably it won't retrace more than 1.2365, break above 1.2402 means at least 1.2450 but we can easily see levels above 1.2500<>1.2700
Best to all
ID

I was not impresed with reaction on NFP data and I still hold my view that we are going to see at least 1.2455/95 to 1.27 before any south to 1.2297/2255
(PS note: 1.2365 in previous post was a typo mistake for 1.2265 and it's obvious since the market at the time of the post was arround 1.237).

ID

[Noor]

In my opinion, price will find it very hard to break 1.2485<>1.2450, The COT data does not look promising for a break of 1.2485<>1.2450 (in my humble openion 1.2485<>1.2450..if reached.. will be the top of this bulls push). Also a break of 1.2250 will be the confirmation of fundamentals shifting back into focus, as the market has been moving against US positive data since the bounce up from the 1.1985<>1.1950 area around two weeks ago... All what I need to see now is 1.2225 level, and that's when I will look for a sell opportunity aiming for 1st Target: 1.2180<>1.2150 ... 2nd Target:1.2065<>1.2095.... Lets see what the market will decide....
I wish the best for everybody... And thank you Iris for all the inspiration you gave us.