Sell Eur/Usd

[Persiankiwi]

Originally Posted by jayzee

i did not see any line after i added the indicator. When will it show??

did you ever get an answer to this?


pk

[Noor]

From post dated 01/05/2006

Originally Posted by Noor

I am looking for 1.2160<>1.2140 to provide the south power...
If it does not then I will have to stop trading for one week to organize my cards ... this is my charts...

Euro/Usd is selling off....

[Iris]

Hello Everyone............

Thanks to All for posting your Research/Analysis on Euro...great perspectives that other Members and Guests have an opportunity to review. Bravo.

Euro had a strong ZEW reading today at 71.1 above expectations with some firming EuroZone Fundamentals for which the Market could not break 1.2100 and the Euro Bulls wondering why?...last Fall 2005 reports surfaced that the Peoples Bank of China holding the 2nd largest US Treasury Reserves at $800BL would begin to divest their holdings into other Currencies for which the Market held on the back burner for more confirmation along with the speculation of when the FED will approach the end of its tightening cycle which would signal a downturn in the USDollar...last Friday a Chinese Economist echoed that sentiment again which was putting this squarely in the Markets eye again. Yesterday a clarification from the POB stated that China would not be divesting US Reserves substantially and would possibly increase holdings as they view US assetts as secure. This is an important Market Fundamental from the number 2 holder of US assetts and a vote of confidence going forward for the USDollar. Strong EuroZone data could not regain the 1.2150<>1.2200 levels which was anticipated on the ZEW's numbers because of the Peoples Bank of China clarifying their intent in regard to US Reserves. Also the ECB on Thursday will keep rates at 2.25% with President Trichet's comments being important on upcoming ECB Policy in the spotlight. Central Bank purchases of Foreign Reserves and the level of their holdings is an important indication of how the Market views Fundamental underpinnings in a Currency.

And the news from China has the Markets attention.

[Iris]

Hello Everyone...............

From my Friend Noor........

Originally Posted by Noor
I am looking for 1.2160<>1.2140 to provide the south power...

And that it DID...Euro South Reversal Low at 1.2007.

Great Job Noor contrarian views will ALWAYS go against the grain and gather strong opinions...The Euro Bulls were looking for 1.22<>1.2350 on bad US Trade data and ECB hawkish comments...and reality had better than expected US Data and the ECB not to excited about accelerating Euro rates.

Euro Resistance is back to 1.2083...and South is On.

Noor Bravo my Friend...Keep Up the Great Research/Analysis.

[comingback]

From a fundamental point view, the USD rise is almost certainly over. My guess is this year will be quite choppy. However, I also believe there is a real downside risk for the USD. What will be surprising is a USD rise. Think about when and why the big moves happened last year. There was a lot of political uncertainty in the EU and the referenda damaged the EUR a lot. The interest rate excuse then kept the downward momentum going. All of these have now clearly been priced in. We may see a jolt upwards if the Fed tightens more times than every body seems to expect. That will be just a knee jerk reaction, however. If, on the other hand, there is more tightening by the ECB, expect a massive USD sell off.

Basically, all the news that should have made the USD go up are already priced in. What has been surprising is how resilient the EUR has been and how it recovered almost a quarter of its 2005 loss in 4 days!!

I think this year is going to be a bottom-and-top-pickers' paradise. But then again, what do I know?

[commandergeoff]

Well said. Apart from fundamental economic factors, the geopolitical situation works against dollar strength. There are so many influential people, particularly in Europe, who have an abiding dislike of the current administration and their manic policies. Quite the best thing for the USA and the dollar would be an early departure of George Bush.

[liubuzhen]

Originally Posted by Noor

Hello nuaing...

Lets say the Market fundamentals are like a rope... the Market in 2005 was mainly focusing at the end of this rope which I believe is the interest rates... after the last interest rates statement... The Market has turned it's focus to the beginning of this rope which I believe is nonfarm payroll data and the unemployment rate... Breaking back 1.2115 level on friday was a major move here,, and the big money was in this one... that type of data that showed up on Friday would not have given you that kind of Big money positioning if we were in 2005 now... This means that the big money is reversing their Market outlook by taking it from the beginning of the rope,, The Big money is now looking on where to place their bits by viewing the beginning of the rope that will lead onto the interest rates decision...


Now to anwering your question: Closing within 1.2020<>1.2075 will signal The big money positioning at an early stage... And a south move/south correction will most likely be the move for at least the bigenning of the next week testing/attempting breaking technical levels,, where as the Market will realise how much bit the big money are placing by looking at certain technical levels and see if the Market can break them or not... If not then The Market will realise that the big money did not yet add the enough number of positions to break these technical levels so it will reverse north again looking for better sell zones for the big money to place their bits at... and if the upcoming data from the beginning of the rope are good then they will place their bits at an early stages,, and if the data is bad the Market will pull it self back testing levels of where the Big money have placed their bits... for a none ending cycle to form the direction of the Market... short/medium/long term...

I hope I made my self understandable on my Market perspective...

hahahahahahahah,,,,,,lol......the big money has been preparing for the whole year of 2006 since the beginning of Jan......and there is only one direction for this year...........moon/sun/earth.....................vernal .....

[Leib]

Originally Posted by liubuzhen

hahahahahahahah,,,,,,lol......the big money has been preparing for the whole year of 2006 since the beginning of Jan......and there is only one direction for this year...........moon/sun/earth.....................vernal .....

I'm at a loss to understand what you're trying to say here.

Besides the fact that you quoted Noor's entire post without referring to anypart of it, which in my book simply spells out waste of Moneytec's bandwidth; I can't fathom what you are adding to this thread.

I'd suggest you voluntarily go back to edit it, first by deleting the quote from Noor unless you have an actual point that you're trying to make from his post. 2ndly - please coherently say what's on your mind.

Barring your failure to edit the post, I will be pleased to report your post as 'abusive' to the Moneytec moderator with a simple click on the triangle/exclamation point icon in your post. They like to keep discussions simple, pleasant and non-combative here. Please cooperate with that.

Best of success in everyone's trading