Sell Eur/Usd

[Iris]

Hello Everyone...........

If US ISM is strong will maintain Position...if weak will Exit to Re-Position.

We at IRIS FX are in the Sell Zone on Cable at 1.7855 the Euro at 1.2185 prior to yesterday's FOMC announcement. USD yield advantage is in the Markets sights with March Futures for a move to 4.75% at 80%+...EuroZone growth is mixed with the uptick in German unemployement today unsettling Euro along with Crude Oil below $68BL on OPEC maintaining Supply quotas unanimously US Energy data stockpiles plentiful...further firming the USDollar...US ISM at 10:00AM New York if strong will have Euro decline to 1.2060/40 onto 1.2000<>1.1985 test.

[FXLearning]

Iris

I am glad you enjoyed it. I knew you would get the meaning of the chart as soon as you saw it.

Regards

FXLearning

[Iris]

Hello Everyone............

The US ISM was moderately lower with Home Sales...but here's the forward looking Info the Market needed on US Construction spending to see if the "Fundamentals" in US Housing/Construction data were weakening...

Spending on U.S. construction projects increased 1% in December boosted by robust spending on homes offices stores utilities the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Outlays in November were revised higher to show a 0.5% gain rather than the 0.2% increase previously estimated. The seasonally adjusted figures were much stronger than the 0.2% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. It was the fastest growth in construction spending in three months. For all of 2005 outlays increased 8.9%. In December outlays for private projects rose 1.1% including a 1% gain in residences. Spending on public-sector projects increased 0.7% in December.

The USDollar Index likes the forward US Construction data...Swiss North break at 1.2860 has Euro on Target for 1.2060/40 levels.

Holding Positions...Watching Swiss 1.2860 for a North break.

[pbtech]

Iris I think you are right - 1.2000 - 1.1980 looks to be on the cards. This is going to be a good USD week with most likely a very strong employment report on Friday. In fact I wouldn't be suprised if it heads even further towards 1.1950.

It's seems the large institutional investors are positioning themselves for the eventual long-term run of the Euro bull are wiping out the stops of small timers who have been spoonfed this 'good European data' hype for the last 2 weeks. Expect many to get burnt.

I myself am still waiting for a 1.2049 target which I expect to be reached soon. After that I will step aside asses things a little. Things are going to get ugly around 1.2040 I suspect it is here that a clear direction will given. I'm 95% sure it will be south.

Good luck.

[Forex618]

Which one will it be? It's looking more more like we will reach 90.00 which means EURUSD is headed towards 1.1900/1.1800. However don't underestimate tow factors: 1. Strenght of support at the 1.2000 mark 2. The priced-in expectations of a good NFP number.

[Iris]

Hello PBTech...FX618...Everyone...

At 7:45am New York Session today we will get a definite signpost...ECB rate announcement...most in the Market are expecting no hike with the EuroZone just beginning to mold some growth data but the political arm in EuroZone Ministers have voiced their opinions that its not time yet for the ECB to institute hikes until + consecutive data...then there may be a surprise hike tomorrow by the ECB to 2.50% to maintain yield momentum tame Inflation...especially last weeks comments of Euro rates at Historical Lows.

Crude Oil down $66.56 heading lower...
USDX testing a breakout at 89.50/65...
FED Funds +80% for March to 4.75%... 50% for May to 5.00%...

Positive USDX factors...BUT...the ECB is the Signal at 7:45AM New York...

Euro 1st QTR 2006 will get the next Important piece for a Directional move.

[shaji]

Hi everyonefficeffice" />>>

>>

It is interesting to read all of your comments. Let me say it is going to be a tuff year for eurusd traders if you are looking for long-term trend to grab some heavy pips. Now global markets are going for the interest rate differentials. So which one going to be. Eurusd movements are mainly of usd economic factors not euro. So now the big question is how far the hike in interest rate goes up in usd .If they keep the interest rate unchanged for a while we are going to see again sideways movement in eurusd then trade deficit comes in to talk about. So this year grab the pips monitoring short term up or down trend in eurusd.>>

>>

Regards>>

Shaji>>

[Iris]

Hello Everyone...........

We at IRIS FX are in the Sell Zone on Cable at 1.7855 the Euro at 1.2185 prior to yesterday's FOMC announcement. USD yield advantage is in the Markets sights with March Futures for a move to 4.75% at 80%+...EuroZone growth is mixed with the uptick in German unemployement today unsettling Euro along with Crude Oil below $68BL on OPEC maintaining Supply quotas unanimously US Energy data stockpiles plentiful...further firming the USDollar...US ISM at 10:00AM New York if strong will have Euro decline to 1.2060/40 onto 1.2000<>1.1985 test.

The USDollar Index likes the forward US Construction data...Swiss North break at 1.2860 has Euro on Target for 1.2060/40 levels.

The ECB held rates at 2.25% President Trichet said that "vigilance" was necessary to contain secound round Price pressures aka increased energy prices...for which Euro responded in a 30Pip Range as US jobless data hit 5 1/2 year Lows. Putting the vigilance term in the news conference after the ECB decision did not have the effect as last time when it was the following day it was stated which the Market reacted to Rally the Euro. The Market is clearly focused on the FED Funds at 4.50% the pricing in ratio's for March May at 88% 50%. Euro current Low at 1.2030 achieves the above Targets to Exit. The Market will now Position into Asian/London Sessions for tomorrows US NFP data a South test/break in the Swiss at 1.2885/60 will be partial USDX Longs squaring rather than Euro Bulls Rallying going into Friday's NFP data.