Hello Noor...Stormy...Aeon...Everyone...
Quote:
I can see commercials decreasing their shorts in Aud,, does that indecate a north reversal in Aud single currency, when looking at current price action??...
Could you please post your analysis on Aud based on the COT data? that will really help.
|
Noor...On the Aussie COT data below we see 5 weeks ago the Commercials were heavily Net Short at 44,065 contracts the Aussie Dollar at the FX Highs at 7485 and we notice the week of 2/28 that Open Interest had begun to decline considerably based on the 5 week average to 58,377 contracts....the Commercials were Exiting their Net Short Positions and were Distributing those Short Positions to the Large Specs/Funds who were Long a Top...the move from the 7485 High to the Short Cover at 7315 Lows achieved a 170 Pip decline. Then last weeks data shows an increase in Net Commercial Longs that you spoke of were Price Rallied from the 7315 Lows on 3/7 to a high at 7372 where I believe they are Exiting their Net Longs by the fact that the Large Speculators have increased their Net Shorts above the 5 week average with a continuation from the Short Cover in Open Interest at 58,377 to 67,707 of the current data which shows fuel in the move South on the Aud/Usd.
The Commercials Sold the 7485 High then Covered at 7315 and Reversed Long with their increase from 2/28<>26,143 contracts to 3/7<>36,511 to Rally the Aussie to 7372 where they began Exiting their Longs with an increase in Net Shorts over the last 3 weeks to 32,067 and the Large Specs further fueling the decline with Open Interest at 67,707 increasing for a 4 week average to further the Aussie Short Directional move as I expect next weeks data to show the Commercials building their Net Short Positioning for the levels at Aud/Usd 7200<>7000.
I agree with Stormy on a Sell Aud/Usd Target upcoming initialy at 7200 enroute to a retest at 7000 into 2nd QTR 2006.
Aeon...You can reach me for info at ....
irisfx@aol.com
Licensed Brokers
That means, there's a possibility that aud/usd will go down to 7200? Coz I have been holding my position of 7365 short since monday..
Linear Mode
