Quote:
Originally posted by Wall
Interesting Rezo:
1.On the daily bar chart, EUR posted a perfect double top on 5/26 and 6/16.
2.Since then we have had a head and shoulders formation, with the target being around 1.0700, which was reached on 9/3.
3.Also, there is a trendline from the high of 6/16 running straight down the chart, although admittedly it was broken upward on 9/8. However, the little W formation lows that it made on 8/26 and 9/4 (which was made on the support line for the sideways moving market between 1/3 and 4/22), has almost reached its resistance of 1.1417 made on 8/7.
4.To summarize, the EUR has been trending down since its last double top on 6/16.
5.The lowest low of 0.8562 was on 1/31/2002 and the highest high of 1.1930 on 6/16/2003. Between 6/26/2002 and 10/25/2002 it moved sideways, consolidating and then took off. It did the same between 1/27/2003 and 4/22/2003. However the sideways movement between 5/26 and 6/13 did not consolidate sideways, but sank down to its old support. This gives a 50% retracement target to look for at least of 1.0246, below even Iris' target of 1.1080.
Peace.
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Hi Wall. Interesting you say? How about this:
1. Double top made its job, and it is not relevant anymore. It was on dailies, and triggered +2.5 month downside move with perfect down trend line. I think for daily double top its ok, but then again, who am I or you to say? If it was double top on weeklies, I would say 2-3 months is little time, but on dailies its ok...(I think)
2. If you're referring to h&s formation between 7/08 - 8/12, then sorry, but as much as it is and looks the pattern (and it worked), head and shoulders is a REVERSAL PATTERN, so it should appear AFTER upside move in order to be a signal of down move. What we got here is a trend line, and not a h&s which triggered the down move (it would be better is you attached the chart so we know what exactly are you talking about...it would be still good to see what you mean, so if its interesting and you'd like to discuss it - please post it). And suppose it was h&s, you say it reached its target, so what did it have to do with my buy call now?
3. You say its almost reached +1.14 and that's the target? well, once again, who are we to decide where is it going to reverse? - very dangerous approach, but even if its so, take a look - my target is 1.1370. And how come for you that "W" formation is not just a double top to have same effect as mentioned double top did and trigger similar upside?
4. Ok, it has so?
5. Maybe you're right, maybe not, but I am a speculative trader, so if it reverses, I will sell. I don't care and am not emotionally attached to euro
- I don't care if it goes up or down, and I advise everyone not to be obsessed with any move - its much more profitable to go with the flow.
You say 1.0246? why not? -its 1000pips away from now days - I will be more than happy, cos its a long journey and if I will get to catch fifth of that move - its enough for me.
Now to summarize:
As far as I understand (?) your post starting with "interesting rezo" is supposed to be a reaction on what I replied to forex1 about my view not being entirely because of basic charting issue...well, maybe you are trading based only on patterns, figures and lines (fib, supp, ress, gann, andrew and so on), but my analysis may be little different, so please allow it to be.
I'm not saying my analysis is better than any other's, it may be just different. So maybe for you its only basic charting, and for me its something else...everyone can analyse in a way that is god and convenient for him/her.
Best wishes,
Rezo.
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